In the NHL, contracts matter. For better or worse, every player is judged based on the money he makes and whether he’s worth the price.
This piece is about the players that are well worth the money — the best deals in the league. It’s when you ask yourself, “How is this guy making that much?” but in a good way.
There are several team-friendly deals out there. According to each player’s projected value over the remainder of their deals, these are the league’s 10 best contracts.
The goal here is to grade contracts empirically, with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract. The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.
What players have already done holds no merit; this is about the future value of the deal. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered with this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.
1. Gustav Forsling
Contract: $5.8 million AAV for eight years
Model Value: $11.3 million AAV for eight years
When Gustav Forsling’s extension was announced, there was no doubt that it would land somewhere on this list by summertime. And here it is, debuting right at the top.
Some folks were skeptical about the valuation of Forsling at the time. I would imagine that skepticism is all but gone now after seeing the work he put in en route to the Panthers’ Stanley Cup win — he was excellent. Forsling plays shutdown minutes and handles them better than almost any other defenseman. He’s an exceptional puck-mover who does a lot of things well, and to do that given the difficulty of his minutes is what makes him a no-doubt franchise defenseman. By Net Rating, he ranks inside the league’s top 15.
That’s worth a lot of money, way more than what Forsling will be paid for the next eight seasons. At $5.75 million, Forsling is being paid like a No. 2 defenseman and he is so much more than that. Maybe that was the perception of him going into the season or during it, but by the end, it should’ve been clear he was several tiers above that. Forsling is the real deal, and it’s nice to see an analytics darling get the respect he deserves on the national stage thanks to an epic playoff run, in which he was a shutdown force.
On a team full of great deals, Forsling’s looks the best and should be for the foreseeable future. His deal is the league’s gold standard.
2. Jack Hughes
Contract: $8.0 million AAV for six years
Model Value: $14.1 million AAV for six years
There should be no shock here; Jack Hughes has one of the best contracts in hockey.
Hughes may not yet have been an $8 million player when he signed, but the signs were there that he would become one. Now, it is over for everyone. At 23, he’s already blossomed into one of the game’s best centers, and that’s a title he should carry for the remainder of his contract.
For the next six years, Hughes will be making only $8 million, the price of a low-end first-line center. It is, apparently, Elias Lindholm money, and Hughes is a whole lot better than Lindholm. Hughes is an elite force with the puck, someone who shouldn’t have too much trouble being a 100-point scorer throughout his prime.
That’s worth a lot and it’s reflected in his projected Net Rating of plus-20, one of the highest marks in the league. That’s a number that’s expected to stay steady for the next six years and, as the cap grows, so does Hughes’ relative worth. Throughout his deal, he’s expected to be worthy of allocating nearly 15 percent of the salary cap. For now, that’s in the ballpark of $12.5 million, but that grows all the way to $15.2 million by 2029-30, the final year of his deal.
Average it all out and Hughes comes in as a $14.2 million player. He’s not that yet, but in a growing cap environment, there shouldn’t be much doubt that a 23-year-old franchise star will get there. If he takes another step toward MVP level (a Net Rating north of plus-25), his $8 million deal will feel like chump change.
3. Miro Heiskanen
Contract: $8.5 million AAV for five years
Model Value: $14.4 million AAV for five years
A shocking truth: Miro Heiskanen has only had a Norris Trophy finish above 10th once in his career. He finished seventh in 2022-23.
It’s weird, but when voting relies a lot on production, it’s hard for a consistent defensive ace such as Heiskanen to get his due. That he drives play to the degree that he does at both ends of the ice while playing the toughest minutes for Dallas is a big deal. Few defenders in the league can do what he can in all three zones.
Maybe Heiskanen will finally get his due during the 2024-25 season, but there should be no question regarding Hesikanen’s league-wide standing regardless of Norris votes. He’s projected to be one of the league’s top-five defensemen next season. At age 25 (as of July 18) he should be able to maintain this level for the duration of his contract.
That paints a lot of what’s being shown above with Heiskanen’s value, especially when compared to the next defenseman below him: Adam Fox.
Heiskanen may not be quite on the same level as Fox, but the one-year age difference means he’s projected to close the gap a bit next season. Enough that the difference in salary between the two ($1.05 million more for Fox) is more than the difference in expected value ($600,000 more for Fox). It’s marginal, and if anyone prefers Fox at his price-point instead, that’s fair. The model gives a slight edge to Heiskanen.
4. Adam Fox
Contract: $9.5 million AAV for five years
Model Value: $15.0 million AAV for five years
The summer of big extensions for young defensemen had players falling into two camps: The ones with great deals and the ones with awful deals. Unsurprisingly, Adam Fox falls into the first camp.
Fox’s 2023-24 campaign really felt like it flew under the radar, mostly as a result of several other defensemen who managed to soar higher. Make no mistake though, Fox was still at the very top of his game, setting a career-high in goals (17) and scoring above a point-per-game rate for the first time in his career. Doing that while maintaining his elite defensive standing is what makes him so special, and it’s why he remains one of the league’s best defensemen. He finished top-five in Norris voting for the fourth straight season.
To get all that for only $9.5 million is an obvious steal. As the cap rises over the next five years, Fox’s deal should only become more valuable. Year-in and year-out, he’s proven to be one of the league’s very best two-way defensemen, and that’s worth way more than his current deal.
5. Josh Morrissey
Contract: $6.25 million AAV for four years
Model Value: $12.7 million AAV for four years
Four years ago, this exact contract ranked No. 10 on the list of worst contracts. It was an eight-year commitment at No. 1 defenseman money to a guy who struggled to drive play, didn’t move the puck very well, didn’t offer much offense and struggled to defend his blue line.
Four years later, look at Josh Morrissey: A franchise defenseman who does a lot of things well, a player who turned his most glaring weaknesses into serious strengths. He scores, he defends well, he drives play, he moves the puck — he is elite. To go from one end of the contract spectrum to the other on the same deal takes serious growth.
It also took growth on my end when it came to this model, specifically when it came to handling the context of a player’s minutes. Morrissey had it very hard three years ago, playing tough minutes after losing Jacob Trouba, a partner he had a lot of chemistry with. He also played big minutes. Both factors weren’t accounted for well enough at the time and if they were, maybe Morrissey would’ve never made the worst contracts list in the first place.
He probably didn’t belong that low, but it was still hard to argue he was providing positive value at the time. His growth since, especially over the last two seasons, has been an absolute pleasure to witness, and Morrissey is now at a point where his value is twice as high as his contract.
Started from the bottom, now he’s here.
6. Matthew Tkachuk
Contract: $9.5 million AAV for six years
Model Value: $14.1 million AAV for six years
Last year’s choice for top contract takes a tumble down to the sixth spot. That’s a product of tighter accounting on my end for the league’s top end, but also a slight drop in play from Matthew Tkachuk last season.
That’s not entirely his fault. The Panthers played a much more defensive game in 2023-24, and Tkachuk spent the first half still getting up to speed after breaking his sternum during the prior year’s Cup run. From January onward, Tkachuk looked much closer to his MVP-caliber self, but that first half did enough to nudge his value down — enough to land closer to No. 10 than No. 1.
Regardless, the model still views Tkachuk in high esteem; he’s a unicorn who does everything at a high level. He holds one of the best projected Net Ratings in the league, a mark that should have him earning closer to $13 million next season instead of his current $9.5 million cap hit. That number only goes up higher as the cap is expected to grow.
That Tkachuk is only 26 means he still has a lot of excellent years left in front of him, which turns into over $25 million in surplus value for the Panthers. Florida got a great deal here.
7. Nathan MacKinnon
Contract: $12.6 million AAV for seven years
Model Value: $16.5 million AAV for seven years
For years, Nathan MacKinnon was one of the most underpaid players in hockey and a frequent feature on this list. What looked like a fair deal at the time of his signing turned into a bargain once MacKinnon took a massive step forward near the start of the contract.
That’s usually the easiest way for players to make it on this list, and it felt extremely unlikely that MacKinnon would do so with his new deal — the richest one in hockey. He earned that by consistently scoring at a 110-point pace, a relatively fair deal that would be difficult to surpass to the degree necessary to make it on this list. That was especially true given his age and the fact he was already one of the best players alive.
And yet here he is once again. Somehow, he took another massive step.
In 2022-23, MacKinnon upped the ante significantly, scoring at a 128-point pace. The following year, he trumped that further with an incredible MVP performance, scoring 140 points. That puts his estimated value between $16 million and $17 million — or 19 percent of the cap. MacKinnon, at his current level, is a near-max salary player (20 percent).
At age 28, MacKinnon’s value is expected to decline over the remaining seven years of his contract — but he’s so good right now that his decline is superseded by expected cap growth. Right now, his projected Net Rating is plus-27. By year seven, that’s expected to drop to plus-21 and 15 percent of the cap, a mark that would still be worth over $16 million at the time.
It’s more than possible that the age curve I’m using is not aggressive enough for an edge case like MacKinnon’s, someone right at the league’s apex.
Even if that is the case, it would take a sizable drop-off for MacKinnon to not live up to his current deal. By Year 7, his Net Rating would need to be at plus-14 or higher to be worth $12.6 million or more. That’s the level of a top-25 forward. In other words, he should be more than fine.
The longer he stays right at the top, as he should for the foreseeable future, the better this deal looks.
8. Zach Hyman
Contract: $5.5 million AAV for four years
Model Value: $11.3 million AAV for four years
Who would’ve thought when Zach Hyman signed a seven-year deal with the Oilers three years ago that it would land on this list and not the other one?
While Hyman looked to be a strong complementary player at the time, seven years felt like a long time, especially given his playing style. Models loved him, though questions regarding how much of his impact should be credited to his more famous linemates instead were valid.
Three years later, there’s no denying that Hyman might be one of the best free-agent signings ever, a star forward on a bargain deal well below his worth — and one of the best deals in hockey. Scoring 54 goals will certainly have that effect.
With Hyman, there are still some questions regarding the McDavid Effect, but anyone not giving Hyman his flowers at this point isn’t paying close enough attention. No previous McDavid linemate was scoring 50 goals before Hyman. No Oilers power play was scoring at this high a rate before Hyman. And even McDavid himself has upped his scoring rate with Hyman around. Hyman makes life a lot easier for superstars — the new Chris Kunitz. Plus, he also set the cap-era record for goals in a single playoff. That’s not nothing.
Obviously, Hyman is benefitting from getting to play with McDavid, and those effects listed above aren’t all about him. But it’s not all McDavid, either. It’s a mutually beneficial relationship that Hyman adds a lot to as an elite grinder, one who has finally found his finishing touch.
Hyman may not be a point-per-game player without McDavid, but he’s clearly performing a lot better than any random middle-six forward would under the same circumstances. Playing with and keeping up with a superstar isn’t as easy as many think, but Hyman makes it look that way. He’s the league’s best sidekick.
9. Quinn Hughes
Contract: $7.85 million AAV for three years
Model Value: $14.7 million AAV for three years
Before last season, there were still some lingering questions regarding where Quinn Hughes fit in the league’s hierarchy of defensemen. After a dominant Norris-winning season, Hughes has left no doubt where he belongs: right at the top. Hughes enters 2024-25 as the highest-rated defenseman according to the model.
How much is that worth? Approximately $14 million to 16 million over the next three seasons, or about 16 percent of the salary cap. Hughes is that good (sorry for ever doubting that!) and he’s only 24. That means we can expect him to maintain this level and maybe become even better over the next few seasons.
Compare all of that to his currently paltry $7.85 million deal, and the Canucks make out like bandits… for now. Hughes’ value is high enough above his cap hit that he manages to make this list despite only having three years left in his deal, but that also means he’s set to break the bank soon.
If Hughes can stay at this level as one of the absolute best defensemen on the planet — one who brings in a massive volume of offense — he’ll be set to earn a truly big number in 2027.
10. Matt Boldy
Contract: $7.0 million AAV for six years
Model Value: $11.0 million AAV for six years
Matt Boldy is really good. Really good. Last year, at age 22, he scored at a 32-goal, 75-point pace and was one of the league’s best play-drivers at five-on-five. There aren’t a lot of players his age who control and influence the game the way he does from the wing, and the model is a big fan for that reason. He’s a star, and the best is still yet to come.
One of the things that really separates Boldy from other young players is his complete 200-foot game. Defensive value is often difficult to come by for offensive players his age, but Boldy has it. The Wild, one of the league’s best defensive teams, have been way better defensively in back-to-back seasons with Boldy on the ice. His work during the 2022-23 season was a nice taste of that, and Boldy’s 2023-24 campaign cemented it. His relative expected goals against rate over the last two years ranks highly among top line forwards, right in line with William Karlsson and not far below Jordan Staal.
That gives Boldy a plus-3 Defensive Rating going into next year, a high mark that bolsters his solid work offensively. If he can keep that up while turning into an annual point-per-game forward, he’ll quickly become one of the league’s best wingers. At his age, his value only goes up during the life of his deal — and he’s already well above the $7 million he’s making.
Honorable Mentions: Sam Reinhart, Auston Matthews, Jesper Bratt, Brandon Hagel, Roman Josi
Data via Evolving Hockey and CapFriendly
(Top photo of Jack Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon: Michael Martin / NHLI via Getty Images)
