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MLB trade deadline Q&A: Bowden on deal scenarios and the latest buzz

July 23, 2024

With a week to go until the July 30 trade deadline, Jim Bowden answered more than 30 deadline questions from subscribers, sharing the latest he’s hearing and thinking on various players and teams.

Note: Questions have been edited for clarity and length.

Hi, Jim. Thanks for all of your great articles. What would it take for the Dodgers to acquire Randy Arozarena (particularly now that he’s heating up)? — Steve J.

The Rays likely would ask for outfielder Andy Pages back first. If the Dodgers turned them down, I think their next ask would be James Outman with the idea of getting a major-league-ready outfielder with minimal service time.

Same question (as above) on (acquiring) Arozarena, but for the Guardians. — Chris J.

I think the Rays would start by asking for either outfielder Jaison Chourio or outfielder Chase DeLauter. If that price was too steep, they might turn their focus to one of Cleveland’s left-handed pitching prospects such as Alex Clemmey or Jackson Humphries.

What does a package from the Phillies to the Rays for Arozarena and Pete Fairbanks look like? The only untouchable Phillies prospects to me are Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford. I’ll start the trade with Bryson Stott. What else do the Rays want/need? — No name given

The Phillies aren’t going to trade shortstop/third baseman Aidan Miller either and probably not even Mick Abel despite his control and command issues this season at Triple A. I’d think Tampa Bay would want to take back Johan Rojas to have another elite outfield defender and then try to get one of Philadelphia’s other shortstop prospects, like Starlyn Caba or Bryan Rincon, as well as outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. and one of their lower pitching prospects such as Alex McFarlane or Christian McGowan. It would take a package of four of them I would guess. The Phillies would have a much better chance of getting Arozarena without Fairbanks being part of the deal, which hikes up the price considerably in this marketplace.

What is the trade return value for Bo Bichette (who is having a poor year)? I’ve seen articles quoting MLB execs saying this season hasn’t diminished his value. Do you agree? What type of return could the Blue Jays expect if they move him at the deadline? — Mike D.

The teams I’ve talked to would not be swayed by Bichette’s down year nor his significant calf injury. However, I’m told the Blue Jays are not making him available, so for now it’s a moot point. His trade value would be a top-three prospect and two top-30 type prospects from an average farm system.

Do you think the Blue Jays will trade a player with term? Trading Chad Green would make a lot of sense. — Peter L.

I’ll be shocked if they don’t trade Green, Yimi García and Yusei Kikuchi at a minimum.

Does Max Fried’s injury make the Braves a bigger player in the expensive market for a starter? — Alan G. … With Ozzie Albies’ wrist fracture and the announcement that he’ll likely be on the IL until the playoffs, how do you see this changing the Braves’ approach to the trade deadline?

I texted with president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and he told me he has a lot of confidence in rookie second baseman Nacho Alvarez Jr., the 21-year old they’ve promoted to take Albies’ spot for the next eight weeks. Alvarez had a .401 on-base percentage between Double A and Triple A and stole 21 bases in 24 attempts. On the pitching front, the Braves have never stopped looking for starting pitching and probably never will with Anthopoulos leading the charge.

What right-handed-hitting trade candidate do you find most appealing for the Red Sox? I like Brent Rooker. Many want a middle infielder, but the consensus is that the David Hamilton/Ceddanne Rafaela/Romy Gonzalez platoon is reliable with Vaughn Grissom beginning rehab. I think a guy who can play DH and sometimes first base is most ideal. Rooker does not really fit this bill though. Thoughts? — Thomas H.

I keep hearing from opposing general managers that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow continues to show interest in acquiring pitching, pitching and pitching. However, I agree with you that a power right-handed hitter would make some sense and although Rooker wouldn’t be an ideal fit with Masataka Yoshida at DH, he would make them better. Josh Bell of the Marlins or Mark Canha of the Tigers could possibly fit.

Execs believe Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be traded, but where will he end up? (Sam Navarro / USA Today)

Any more traction to the Pirates/Taylor Ward rumors? What about trading for Jazz Chisholm Jr.? — Richard P.

The Pirates’ top trade target should be Chisholm as he would fit nicely in center field and his power-speed combination could really help this offense. I also like the fit for Chisholm because of the influence Andrew McCutchen could have on him. The Pirates should put Chisholm’s locker next to McCutchen’s if they get him. I haven’t heard much about Ward and the Pirates lately, for what it’s worth.

If the Pirates continue their hot streak and end up as buyers at the deadline needing bats/outfielders, does Henry Davis have more value to them as a trade chip or roster player? It seems like it’s “now or never” to give him a chance or let him try elsewhere. — Joseph Y.

I think Davis, the first overall pick in the 2021 draft, has more value as a trade chip and I wouldn’t be afraid to trade him for the right return — especially in a package for Jazz Chisholm.

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What are your thoughts on how the Mets’ deadline will shape up? Pete Alonso is obviously the biggest question, but what about players like J.D. Martinez, whom the Mets would ostensibly be selling high on? — Henry P.

If the season ended Monday, the Mets would be in the playoffs as the third NL wild-card team. I can’t see them trading Martinez and diminishing their chances of making the postseason. Instead, I see them trading for pitching help.

Should the Mets trade or perhaps try to extend the following players, all things being equal: Luis Severino, J.D. Martinez, Harrison Bader, Sean Manaea. (Editor’s note: Manaea has a player option for 2025.) If you were there GM, would you take the “try to add without giving up much” approach (as they did with Phil Maton)? — Greg M.

I think adding without giving up any top prospects is the best approach for the Mets and I would focus on adding starting and relief pitching. I would not work on extending the contracts of any of the players you mentioned until the season was over.

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I’d love for the Orioles to acquire Tarik Skubal, even if it means dealing Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo with other talent. But is it realistic to expect the Tigers to trade a young ace like Skubal? — Eric L.

I think if the Orioles offered a package that included Heston Kjerstad or Colton Cowser, Mayo and Cade Povich, it would be hard for the Tigers to turn down based on where they are in their rebuilding process. (If I’m the Orioles, I’m not trading my top two prospects, Jackson Holliday or Bassalo, in that package.) It would be a steep price to pay for Baltimore, but worth it to be able to have a postseason rotation of Corbin Burnes, Skubal and Grayson Rodriguez.

What would a package for Jack Flaherty look like? — Ajsonnega

Flaherty is having a great comeback season, going 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA over 17 starts. The 28-year-old is healthy and pitching like he did during his best years with St. Louis. The Tigers should be able to get a top-seven prospect from an average farm system, or two top-15 prospects for him. Flaherty is eligible for free agency after this season.

Love your insight, Jim! Where do you see the Rays’ deadline going? Do you see them trading Zach Elfin now or waiting until winter? — James C.

The Rays will absolutely deal Eflin, especially if a team is willing to take the full $18 million he’s owed in 2025. I don’t think the prospect price would be exorbitant either. I had president of baseball operations Erik Neander on my SiriusXM radio show Sunday and he told me that they’ll probably be both buyers and sellers. They could be an active team at the deadline.

What would it cost the Mariners to add Isaac Paredes from the Rays? — Ryan P.

There are a lot of teams besides the Mariners that would want Paredes, including the Yankees and Cubs. However, considering he’s been the Rays’ best player and only position player All-Star, I think it’s more likely they trade Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Zach Eflin than Paredes. The price for Paredes would be steep: It would cost the Mariners two of their top-five prospects.

Do you feel like the Rangers could cause some chaos this deadline? — Liam M.

I do not think the Rangers will do much at the deadline. I think their biggest moves over the next month or so will be reinstating Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom from the injured list. They entered Tuesday only four games back in the division and still have a chance at a wild-card berth, so I think selling would be a mistake. Other than a reliever or a bench piece, they don’t have a lot of needs outside of just getting healthy.

The Twins could use additional pitching, like almost all teams. Who will they go after? — Paul S.

The Twins have always been willing to trade from their strong farm system and I could see them acquiring a starting pitcher like Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays, Austin Gomber of the Rockies or Tyler Anderson of the Angels.

Do Seattle and Cleveland match up on a deal with excess pitching going to Cleveland and some prospects going to Seattle? — No name given

Cleveland is targeting starting pitching and the Mariners have enough depth to be able to deal a starter from either their major-league team or the farm system. However, to do that, they are looking for a middle-of-the-order thumper in return and the Guardians really don’t have that power bat to match up with Seattle. (Cleveland obviously isn’t going to move Josh Naylor or José Ramírez.)

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Where do you think James Outman will wind up? He’s an excellent center fielder but just needs the chance to play everyday. Clearly his time as a Dodger is over. — Paul M.

I think he could be involved in a trade if the Dodgers were to acquire Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox, Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, or Randy Arozarena or Jose Siri from the Rays. However, until the Dodgers trade for another center fielder, I think he stays on their 40-man roster.

What could the Giants get in return for Blake Snell? He has been (much better since returning). — John D.

The Giants are not going to throw in the towel. They are only four games out in the wild-card race. They have significant starting pitchers expected to come off the IL including Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb, both of whom could be difference-makers down the stretch.

Might the Cardinals roll the dice, put trust in their younger players and move Paul Goldschmidt? If you were the Cards’ GM, would you make the move? — Ed H.

If the season ended today the Cardinals would be in the playoffs as the NL’s second wild-card team. They’re not selling Goldschmidt or anyone else at the deadline. Instead, I expect them to trade for a veteran starting pitcher such as Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays or Erick Fedde of the White Sox.

Any chance for a contender-to-contender trade between the Cardinals and Mariners? Cardinals get major-league pitching and Mariners get hitting? — Keith D.

They certainly match up well. If the Mariners are willing to trade one of the starting pitchers at the back end of their rotation, I could see the Cardinals offering Nolan Gorman or Alec Burleson to try to get a deal done. If I’m the Mariners though, I’m not trading any of the starting pitchers from the major-league club.

Hi, Jim. Is a “challenge trade” of Spencer Torkelson for Jordan Walker at all practical? — Alan B.

I’ll take the Jordan Walker side of that deal. In other words, if I’m the Tigers, I’d make that offer to the Cardinals, and if I’m St. Louis, I’d say thanks but no thanks. That said, I still believe Torkelson can hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs if he can just make adjustments and I still believe Walker will play in multiple All-Star games before the age of 30.

Are their teams other than the reported Red Sox and Yankees seriously looking into acquiring Jameson Taillon, who after an early season injury is having a solid season with Cubs and has two years remaining on his contract at a reasonable $18 million per season? — Jim K.

Taillon is healthy, his performance this year (3.10 ERA over 17 starts) is not a fluke, and his contract is reasonable for any of the 30 teams. The Cubs need to improve their offense and bullpen; using Taillon as trade bait instead of parting with top prospects to address those areas makes a lot of sense for Chicago.

Jonathan India is under team control through 2026. Will the Reds move him? (Brett Davis / USA Today)

With the Reds starting to fade, wouldn’t it be wise to trade Jonathan India at his peak value? That logjam in the infield isn’t going anyway. — Benjamin S.

With Matt McLain getting ready to return, it makes sense to dangle India to a team needing a second baseman, like the Yankees, Mariners or Blue Jays. But I would only trade him if the Reds got back either pitching help or another outfield bat. Perhaps they put him in a package for the Marlins’ Jazz Chisholm Jr.?

Given the glut of young outfielders in Milwaukee, how does the rest of the league value Joey Wiemer? Could a trade involving him and a lesser prospect or two net the Brewers a quality starting pitcher? — Kyle J.

Most teams view Wiemer as a fifth outfielder type and question how much he’s going to hit. Not a lot of trade value beyond that of a throw-in type player.

Is there any sense in trying to predict what A.J. Preller will do, or should we just sit back and wait? — Jared E.

Preller will make a run at everyone and everything, as he always does. He’ll shoot for Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet and maybe settle for a right-handed reliever and a bench asset. Remember, he’s already acquired Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez since spring training — any other move is just whip cream on the strawberry shortcake. But never underestimate him.

What level of prospect could the Angels get for players like Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo, Carlos Estévez or Tyler Anderson? (I don’t think they’ll) get a top prospect for them (top two in a system, or top 50 overall), but the next tier down might be realistic (like a top-10 prospect in a system, or top 50 to top 200 overall). Do you think that’s realistic? — Matt R.

Matt, I think you nailed it with your take. All four of those players have trade value but none of them are going to land a top 1-3 prospect from an average farm system. Landing multiple players from a team’s top-20 prospect list should be the expectation.

You have mentioned Nationals center fielder Jacob Young as a potential trade target. With how well he has been playing, he actually looks like a solid building block for Washington. What would a realistic trade look like for a team to acquire him? — Joseph G.

At this point, I think it’s more likely the Nationals trade Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan and Jesse Winker, according to my major-league sources. However, they’ll listen on everyone and after seeing what they received in the Hunter Harvey trade with Kansas City, their asking prices are sky high right now. Any moves they make will be because they believe they’re long-term wins. Young is not a player they’ve shopped, but other teams like him.

Do GMs with in-demand trade pieces ever initiate calls with other teams, asking if X or Y player (from the opposing team) is available (in exchange)? We hear all the time about teams calling for the Garrett Crochet types, but curious if it ever goes the other way? — Jared S.

Of course it goes the other way. Every GM in theory should be doing due diligence before they trade any star player, checking with all of the other 29 teams to make sure they are making the best possible trade. So even if a team doesn’t call (you), most GMs will call everyone to make sure they’re getting maximum value in return.

Which fringe wild-card team could pivot to a white flag trade ala 1997 White Sox? — John G.

Love that question, John. I’m going with the Tampa Bay Rays.

What additional scrutiny is there when exploring a trade for an injured guy like Trevor Williams, who has been out for a couple months but is nearing a return? — Chris H.

There would be a thorough examination of his medical records and direct discussions with the doctors and trainers involved. Then before a trade is finalized, there would be an in-person medical examination by the new team’s orthopedic doctor. The deal would have to be made before the deadline so there is time for that type of exam.

How often does a GM face a last-minute proposed trade from a team that he has not prepared for? Please describe the scramble that ensues to assess/evaluate non-evaluated prospects. — John D.

Most teams have done all of their homework long before the deadline, so it’s rare to have a last-minute surprise you’re not prepared for in a trade. Clubs have evaluated all major- and minor-league players regardless of whether a name has been brought up in trade talks. The real scramble would be for the medicals for players involved in a last-minute deadline deal. But the truth is teams are prepared for most scenarios. It’s their job 365 days a year.

From your perspective as a former GM, how much would you estimate a typical deadline deal changes from the first call to the deal closing? And what teams would you say will be most meticulous this year? — Francis B.

It can change significantly, or it can be the same offer that’s been on the table for weeks. Each trade negotiation is different. I think the White Sox, Marlins, Rays and Angels will be the most active sellers. I think the Dodgers, Orioles, Astros and Yankees will be the most active buyers and most likely to get something done.