We didn’t get a blockbuster rematch filled with goals between the Orlando Pride and the Kansas City Current last weekend. Still, the Pride’s unbeaten streak survived another week following its scoreless draw on Friday. The result also helped the Washington Spirit clinch the playoffs. The second-place Spirit celebrated with another decisive victory over last-place Houston Dash (and an epic Trinity Rodman celebration), while third-place Gotham FC’s playoff hopes have to wait a little bit longer.
As much as the story of this season has been about the Pride’s domination and the league hitting pause on its favorite buzzword, “parity”, there are also plenty of narratives heading into these final few weeks about the individual end-of-year awards.
Plus, there’s a new award this year, with midfielder of the year being added into the mix.
The Athletic’s Jeff Rueter and Meg Linehan discuss the awards up for grabs and who might be the frontrunners.
Linehan: I’m not usually swayed by goals, but there’s a fascinating two-way race for the golden boot this year that has massive implications for the 2024 MVP award. Pride forward Barbra Banda and the Current’s Temwa Chawinga — who’s the golden boot frontrunner with 15 goals — have to be top of the list for MVP this year by a significant margin.
So let me bang on my stress of the word “valuable” in most valuable player as I do every year because that raises two questions: which of these two players has shaped the way their team plays more, and how much of the MVP race should be guided by team performance?
Rueter: More often than not, it feels like the safer line of rationale is closer to a “player of the season” contest rather than determining the value each candidate provided their respective teams. Then again, voters in these sorts of circuits are sometimes eager to separate the golden boot from the MVP, especially if a player is a pure finisher and not chipping in chances or assists.
We both went into writing this expecting to be on Team Banda, but one aspect of Chawinga’s season that truly jumps off the page is her consistency. No NWSL player has scored in more games than the Current forward, finding the back of the net in 12 regular-season matches. The second-highest total is eight games, with a tie between Banda, Sophia Smith and Ouleymata Sarr. Rodman and Mallory Swanson are right behind this group at seven. Along those lines, two other Orlando players have scored in at least five games, whereas no other Current player has matched that total.
Chawinga has been consistently unstoppable and has shown her threat in a variety of positions (see shot map below) to lead the league’s scoring charts. I came into this expecting it to be Banda’s award to lose, but Chawinga might have my backing heading into the final weeks.
Linehan: I’m trying so hard to not lean on the ol’ intangibles card, but Banda does have the edge. I’m not sure if it’s all the game-winning goals (she leads the league with five), or the connection she’s built with Marta that has helped power Orlando’s unbeaten season, but my gut is telling me that the split of Banda MVP / Chawinga golden boot feels like a fair representation for 2024. But there’s still time!
These are only two names, and we have to get to a shortlist of five. For a ranked vote, I’d have Rodman third on my ballot.
Rueter: Rodman has been the most do-everything forward beyond Banda and Chawinga, remaining a fixture on weekend highlight packages and taking on more chance-creation responsibilities. Any other year, you’d be hearing more about Smith’s club performances, as she’s still bagged 11 goals (third in the NWSL, behind you-know-who) and chipped in six assists. That total ranks second, trailing Croix Bethune.
Croix Bethune tied Tobin Heath’s assist record before her injury. (Photo by Amber Searls, USA Today)
Did Croix Bethune do enough to clinch rookie of the year?
Rueter: Yup.
Linehan: Absolutely.
Rueter: … I’m being told we need to say a bit more about rookie of the year.
If the MVP discourse is a bit bland due to two clear front-runners, this year’s crop of rookies — which has performed well on the whole — easily works itself down to one obvious choice. Even considering her recent season-ending injury, Bethune played at a level that would have made her a fringe MVP candidate. In just under 1,400 minutes, she tied Tobin Heath’s single-season record with 10 assists. She swiftly made Ashley Sanchez’s departure a non-issue in terms of Washington’s record, with the Spirit making a push for the NWSL Shield largely due to her creativity.
That said, Ally Sentnor has done plenty to validate being taken first overall by Utah. Among players under 21, only Alyssa Thompson has more goal contributions than Sentnor (three goals, three assists). She’s working off of relative scraps, too — of the players with at least three goals this season, no one takes their shots with a lower average expected goals (xG) than her 0.06. That suggests her teammates are creating chances that a player would expect to convert 6% of the time — well below the 0.12 average for other 3+ goalscorers. If nothing else, her performance with the U-20s has reinforced how much potential she has in her game.
Linehan: One thing that will be fascinating to watch in the new CBA world of the NWSL is if this award will be reframed in any way since there won’t be a traditional draft to designate rookie candidates moving forward. Will the league combine newcomer status with an age restriction? Will we just understand the meaning of rookie in our hearts and minds? Homegrown players still aren’t a thing in the NWSL, but there’s a chance here to shift some thinking around the young talent coming up through the league moving forward.
A new award enters the chat: Midfielder of the year
Linehan: I love that we’re getting a dedicated midfielder award, but I hope defensive midfielders get as much love as their attacking counterparts! Much like our MVP debate, this season feels like it’s tilted heavily to rewarding offensive contributions — and if that’s the case, Bethune could make it onto this shortlist as well.
Rueter: I’m choosing this to be an immediate response to last year’s awards, which saw Sam Coffey snubbed for MVP. Kerolin was excellent, of course, but Coffey had a more robust case due to her impact on her team.
If you’re looking at performance beyond goal contributions, a case could be made for Taylor Flint. The 25-year-old has needed no time to acclimate after a move away from San Diego and has helped Racing stay in playoff contention under head coach Bev Yanez. Arguably, she’s been the NWSL’s best defensive midfielder this season.
Linehan: Coffey was my first thought, too. The Thorns are having another rough spell but they are immediately better when she’s on the field. I don’t think Marta’s had a strong enough season to make it into the overall MVP conversation but she could be on the midfielder shortlist thanks to her six goals — and maybe a little bit of sentimentality. Vanessa DiBernardo feels like a lock to make the shortlist thanks to what she’s added to the Current’s attack.
Rueter: I really like this award because it gives a chance for another wide-open discussion about worthy contenders. Flint, Marta and DiBernardo are such different players, but each is ahead of the pack at what they do. The same could be said for Bethune, too, but the other candidates here may be stronger than the rookie award.
Is there a clear favorite for defender of the year?
Rueter: After Naomi Girma won this award in the first two years of her career, San Diego’s swan dive may see the field of candidates get a closer exploration. Girma will be penalized for Wave’s record, even if they have conceded the fifth-lowest number of goals.
Linehan: I wouldn’t be surprised if Girma makes it onto the shortlist, though. Historically, defender of the year voting has been a bit interesting, and I could see her Olympic performance swaying a few voters even though it shouldn’t (or be some sort of correction for her Ballon d’Or snub). If there is a frontrunner, it has to be Orlando’s Emily Sams.
Rueter: As if a surprise inclusion among the Olympic alternates wasn’t just reward enough for her strong play, Sams has taken pole position in my book, too. Like Banda and the MVP discourse, Orlando’s all-around form will have a deserved impact on Sams’ candidacy. Orlando has allowed just 12 goals in 20 games, helping preserve their undefeated streak.
Sam Staab’s Achilles tendon injury during the Summer Cup was unfortunate for a host of reasons, including a cruel end to her iron-woman streak. It also will probably keep her off the shortlist for the first and second Best XI, but she was having a tremendous campaign with the Chicago Red Stars and helped keep them steady during a lot of early-season transition. Still, Sams is a worthy winner — and I’d expect both her and Staab to stick around Girma on Emma Hayes’ USWNT squads whenever available.
Another two-way race for goalkeeper of the year?
Rueter: If you want to get nerdy with this one, let’s look at goals prevented. This model compares the goals a goalkeeper conceded against the expected goals on target (xGOT) faced. Rather than looking at where on the field a shot was taken (xG, a better measure of chance creation than shooting), xGOT looks at where a shot was placed on goal and compares that to historical data.
A shot down the middle of the goal would probably register a score below 0.1, while a strike lovingly tucked into the top corner would have a higher score. Most attempts fall somewhere between these extremes.
Using this model, the case would be strongest for Gotham’s Ann-Katrin Berger. Although the Pride’s Anna Moorhouse leads the NWSL with 11 clean sheets, goal prevention suggests that has as much to do with a robust defense in front of her as her own exploits.
Linehan: One team that really has not come up a lot in this story is Gotham, which is pretty surprising considering all those big free-agency signings — and also the addition of Ella Stevens, who has been the fun surprise storyline of 2024. But Gotham has a strong candidate for goalkeeper in Berger, who joined the team from Chelsea in April. Gotham has the second-best defense in the league, allowing only 16 goals.
She has provided plenty of highlights already — though perhaps none quite as elite as Berger facing down penalty takers with her hands behind her back at the Olympics.
Ann-Katrin Berger is world class 🌎🤩
After an impressive Olympics performance, you won’t want to miss her return to @gothamfc on 8/24 👀🍿 pic.twitter.com/WlM6ayB3Uq
— National Women’s Soccer League (@NWSL) August 14, 2024
Rueter: It’s been a really good year for NWSL goalkeepers, with only three of 14 regular starters underperforming their ‘goals prevented’ numbers. Kailen Sheridan has kept herself in-form for Canada thanks to San Diego’s struggles this season, while 25-year-old Mandy Haught has kicked off a case for future USWNT inclusion backstopping an otherwise underperforming Utah side.
Seb Hines has led the Pride through its recent turnaround. (Photo by Mike Watters, Imagn Images)
Is Seb Hines an obvious choice for coach of the year?
Linehan: As much as Bethune feels like a pretty clear lock for rookie of the year, Orlando’s Seb Hines feels like a lock for this year’s coaching award. He has been at the helm of the Pride for this incredible turnaround — one that can be traced back to Orlando’s dismal 6-0 loss to the Portland Thorns in June 2022. Orlando just missed out on last year’s playoffs, but they’ve more than made up for it in 2024. Keeping an undefeated team clicking at the level they’re at is not an easy task, but the players have been so consistent.
Plus, the Washington Spirit has a bit of a pickle on its hands when it comes to this award, thanks to Jonatan Giráldez taking over the team midway through the season after a successful stint from interim Adrián González. Combined, they would have a pretty good case for coach of the year, but I bet they either split the Spirit vote or voters avoid the conundrum altogether.
Rueter: I completely agree on Hines, and also that Washington’s succession plan torpedoed any chance of contending in this race. It’s a shame, too — the Spirit have bounced back in a big way after missing the playoffs last year and have been a worthy if unheralded threat for the Shield this season. They play some of the most aesthetically pleasing soccer in the league, creating chances at will whether in transition or during more established phases of play.
Another nod should be given to Vlatko Andonovski, who has also led KC back from a forgettable 2023. He’ll also pick up some narrative points for his own personal resurgence after a difficult tenure as USWNT coach, returning to a more familiar role as an NWSL head coach. KC has been one of the most watchable teams all year long, albeit in part due to suspect defending that enables prolific attacks to keep on whirring.
Linehan: To round this one out, I can see Gotham’s Juan Carlos Amorós — last year’s winner — making the shortlist. Again, the lack of parity this year, plus so much movement when it comes to the hiring and firing of coaches this year, narrows the pool pretty significantly.
(Top photo: Mike Watters, David Gonzales,Kylie Graham/Imagn Images)
