Like plate tectonics, the fantasy hoops landscape is constantly shifting and morphing. Most teams only see incremental changes on the periphery, but every offseason brings volcanic eruptions and earthquakes to spew lava from the X account of Shams Charania and shatter foundations to build new monoliths. Here are the storylines that have stood out with analysis of the fantasy impact.
KAT of New York
As the venerable Grandmaster Flash so eloquently sang many years ago:
New York New York, big city of dreams.
And everything in New York ain’t always what it seems.
You might be fooled if you come from out of town…
Granted, Karl-Anthony Towns grew up in Edison, New Jersey, and Edison is relatively close to NYC, but it is still a long way off, and Towns has spent the last nine years playing in Minnesota.
Towns is now with the Knicks, while Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo are in Minnesota.
The Timberland’s on the ground and chatter rising from the subway vents in the sidewalks are telling me that New Yorkers have hesitation with the acquisition — dawgs were replaced with a KAT, lack of defense, injury concerns, cost, etc. I have so many thoughts from a real-life and macro perspective, but this is a fantasy piece so my focus will remain there.
The volume and shot diet should remain similar for Towns. The big increases will likely come in the big man stats: rebounds and blocks. Prior to the acquisition of Rudy Gobert, Towns averaged double-digit rebounds and a block per game. With Gobert, he was situated more on the perimeter and the rebounds plummeted to the 8.0 range while the blocks decreased to the 0.7 neighborhood. There’s a chance that the steals tick up a bit. KAT now becomes one of the more desirable big men due to the excellent free-throw percentage and contribution in treys.
While most of the focus is on KAT, this trade is all about Jalen Brunson. He showed that he is the guy for the Knicks. Last season, in the first 44 games with Randle, Brunson averaged 19.5 field goal attempts, 26.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.8 treys. The usage rate exceeded 30% 16 times. In the final 33 games without Randle, Brunson averaged 23.9 field goal attempts, 31.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 7.1 assists and 2.6 treys. The usage rate was below 30% only twice and exceeded 40% six times.
As a result, the front office has done everything to accentuate and build around their franchise player. They acquired OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges to mitigate the defensive shortcomings of Brunson, but both are also excellent spot-up shooters, with Anunoby converting 40% of his catch-and-shoot treys last season while Bridges drained 38.5%. That Towns guy? He posted a 42.8% number.
New York can now play five-out basketball with shooters galore surrounding their franchise player. Screen actions with KAT and Brunson are going to be so deadly, as either the lane is going to be unobstructed or KAT will have clean looks from downtown.
The defensive stats will never be there for Brunson, but you’re getting excellent percentages from the guard position and an uptick in field goal attempts and assists seems plausible. There were four players who averaged at least 30 points per game last season — Joel Embiid, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Brunson was right below at 28.7. There’s a good chance he joins the 30-point club this season. In addition, I have his assists going from 6.7 to over 7.0, which would place him in elite territory — Luka Doncic is the only other player to average over 30 points and 7 assists per game.
Losing Donte DiVincenzo is a tough blow for the Knicks. He started 63 of 81 games and shot 40% from downtown while having some massive scoring games. He put up at least 20 points on 24 occasions, with six of those over 30 and a high of 40 in the regular season. During money season, he went for over 20 points five times, with two games over 30. DiVincenzo is going to be an excellent fit in Minnesota. He’s going to space the floor and is a good defender with solid size at 6-foot-4 and 203 pounds. I have him down for around 30 minutes per game, backing up both guard positions. Edwards could be utilized at small forward at times as well.
The two beneficiaries in New York will likely be Josh Hart and Miles McBride. Hart will likely join the starting lineup alongside Brunson, Bridges, Anunoby and Towns. Hart won’t be a bucket getter, but he’s an excellent rebounder and moves the ball well, so contributions in dimes should be expected. In addition, I expect head coach Tom Thibodeau to utilize Hart, Bridges and Anunoby like a pack of raptors swarming around Brunson and Towns, so there should be some steals.
It took a while for McBride to get significant run last season, but when he did, he played well, averaging 11.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1 steal and 2.1 treys in 28 minutes per contest. He shot 40% from downtown. McBride will likely be the microwave off the bench and should see around 28 minutes per contest.
The final piece to this trade is Julius Randle. His fit in Minnesota isn’t great. He only shoots 33% from downtown and is more of an isolation (ISO) player. He doesn’t accentuate Anthony Edwards, the franchise, but does give the team a bully option down low to alleviate some pressure off Edwards when needed. Randle has garnered a usage rate of at least 28% in each of the past four seasons. There’s a chance that number goes down. In addition, he averaged over 35 minutes per contest in New York. I have his playing time going down to 32 minutes per game — Naz Reid should get significant playing time due to his ability to space the floor.
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Time to open the bottle of vintage Harden?
Prime James Harden in Houston was simply amazing. The pinnacle was the 2018-19 season, when he garnered a usage rate of 40.5% and averaged 36.1 points, 4.8 treys, 6.6 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 2.1 steals and 0.7 blocks while shooting 44% from the field, 36% from downtown and 88% from the line on an average of 11 attempts. He was the bona fide No. 1 player for fantasy. Harden was 29 years old then. He is now 35 years old and is coming off a season in which the usage rate was 20.6%, averaging under 20 points per game for the first time since 2011.
Harden became the facilitator on the Clippers, with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George shouldered much of the scoring load. Harden still averaged 2.6 treys, 8.5 dimes, 1.1 steals and 0.8 blocks, so he’s far from washed. He is still one of the preeminent bucket getters in the league, although his ability to get to the rim and draw fouls has been muted with age.
That said, the situation is primed for a return to prominence. Paul George and his 26.6% usage rate are now in Philadelphia. Kawhi Leonard underwent a knee procedure in the offseason and will likely miss plenty of games this season.
The moves the Clippers made in the offseason were defensive in nature — Kris Dunn, Nicolas Batum and Derrick Jones Jr. — so Harden should see a massive increase in the usage rate. The only question is by how much?
At 35 years old, we are not going to see the prime Houston version of Harden, and there are some playing time concerns due to injury as well, but a renaissance season seems to be on the horizon.
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Giddey up
Josh Giddey fell out of favor in OKC due to his shooting struggles. Sure, he improved the free-throw percentage from 70% to 80% and the three-point prowess from 26% to 33%, but it wasn’t good enough to accentuate their franchise player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. As a result, the playing time went from 31 minutes per game to 25 last season.
OKC then traded Giddey to Chicago for Alex Caruso. And there’s a good chance Giddey thrives with his locks flowing in the Windy City.
Giddey is 6-foot-8 and 216 pounds with excellent playmaking abilities. Playing alongside SGA meant that Giddey had to spot up more and make his hay in transition. In Chicago, he should have the ball more in his hands.
The usage rate won’t be incredibly high and the points won’t be voluminous, but he should score somewhere in the 13-19 point range and dish out plenty of dimes. In addition, with his size, he’s going to do work on the boards. The defensive stats will be lacking while the percentages won’t be great, but the triumvirate of points, rebounds and assists offers a nice combo.
Giddey’s presence will likely most adversely affect Coby White. After struggling to find his footing and adjust to the NBA game, White broke out last season, averaging 19.1 points, 2.6 treys, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists in 36.5 minutes per contest. The usage rate was 22.6%. White is still going to play a ton of minutes, but the point, rebound and assist numbers will likely all take a hit now.
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Open an account at the Brooklyn Tank
The Nets made the playoffs in five straight seasons from 2018-19 to 2022-23. They won at least 42 games in four of those seasons but advanced past the first round in the playoffs just once. Last season, the Nets finished 32-50 and traded away their best player, Mikal Bridges, for five first-round picks to the Knicks.
Thus began Operation Tank. The Nets now have four first-round picks for 2025, including their own, in a draft filled with quality players, headlined by Cooper Flagg. They still have veterans like Dennis Schroder, Ben Simmons, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Bojan Bogdanovic on the roster, but it’s highly likely they will get moved at some point.
In early drafts, Noah Clowney has been a highly-coveted late-round pick. During his rookie season, Clowney appeared in 23 games for the Nets and averaged 5.8 points, 0.5 treys, 3.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 steals and 0.7 blocks, but he flashed tremendous upside. Against the Pacers in April, Clowney went for 22 points, 10 rebounds, one assist and one block. In two other games, he blocked four and seven shots, respectively! He also showed the ability to convert from downtown. Clowney is 6-foot-10 and 210 pounds, so it’s very likely that he gets tons of run at some point.
Jalen Wilson is another intriguing player to keep an eye on. He has excellent size at 6-foot-8 and 225 pounds, can shoot from downtown, put it on the floor and finish strong inside. He was named the Summer League MVP after averaging 29.4 minutes, 21.8 points, 4.4 treys, 4.6 rebounds, one assist and 0.6 steals in five games.
A deep, deep sleeper is Ziaire Williams. Am I biased because I have multiple shares in 30-team leagues? Most definitely. Has Ziaire looked good in his NBA career? He most definitely has not. He’s a career 30% shooter from downtown and has looked lost playing off-ball defense. That said, he’s 6-foot-9, 190 pounds, was the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, is still only 23 years old and could be given a legit opportunity in Brooklyn.
Before I get messaged hateful things from Nets fans, I didn’t forget about Cam Thomas. All I hear right now is Method Man in “Enter the Wu-Tang” — ”Keep feeding you and feeding you.” Thomas had a usage rate of 30.7% last season. There were times it got over 40%! He’s a professional getter of buckets and is going to huck and chuck to his heart’s content. He is not going to contribute in the defensive categories, but there’s a chance he dishes out more than the 2.9 dimes from last season, as the playmaking has been getting better.
Dejounte now in the Bayou
After pairing Dejounte Murray with Trae Young, the Atlanta Hawks ended the experiment after a 36-46 season and missing the playoffs. Murray was traded to the New Orleans Pelicans for Dyson Daniels, Larry Nance Jr., Cody Zeller and two first-round picks.
Trae Young had a 34.4% usage rate before Dejounte arrived in Atlanta. Over the next two seasons, that number dropped to 32.6% and then 30.5% last season. Young will likely get back to the mid-30s now that Murray is gone.
In addition, the shot diet will likely change. Last season, Young shot 11.4% catch-and-shoot jumpers. That number was 5.3% before Murray arrived. Young also used to get into the paint and shoot floaters over 35% of the time. Last season, only 31.8% of his shots were within 10 feet.
The tricky thing to figure out is who starts at shooting guard alongside Young. The team is high on Dyson Daniels, and his length and defensive acumen would complement Young well on that side of the ball. Unfortunately, he’s a career 31% shooter from downtown.
I’m thinking Bogdan Bogdanovic gets the nod. He’s a career 38% shooter from downtown and is a grizzled veteran at 31 years old, playing in his soon-to-be eighth NBA season. Since arriving in Atlanta in 2020, Bogdanovic has started 96 games, with 33 coming last season, so he’s familiar with the role. Last season, he averaged 33.9 minutes, 17 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists in those 33 starts. So, Daniels would back up Young in this scenario with Kobe Bufkin being the scoring guard off the bench.
Third-year forward Jalen Johnson broke out last season, averaging 16 points, 1.3 treys, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks while shooting 51% from the field, 35% from downtown and 72% from the line. The usage rate was only 19.1%, so I’d expect that number to increase with Murray now gone. I have Johnson projected for over 19 points and there’s an outside chance he joins the 1/1/1 club (treys/steals/blocks).
For New Orleans, Dejounte Murray slides right into the point guard role. Both the rebound and assist numbers could increase. In Atlanta, Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson gobbled up most of the rebounds. In New Orleans, the center position is currently in flux, so Murray could grab more than the 5.3 boards in Atlanta. When with the San Antonio Spurs, Murray pulled down 7.1 and 8.3 rebounds. Murray averaged 9.2 assists in his final season with the Spurs. In Atlanta, he averaged 6.0 dimes a game. Getting back to 9.0 dimes is unlikely, but over 7.0 is well within the range of outcomes.
The player most affected by the arrival of Murray is C.J. McCollum, as he will likely spot up more and not have the ball in his hands as much.
Mark Williams injury
Williams suffered a foot injury during a late-September workout. It’s been designated as a strained tendon in his left foot and he will miss training camp before being re-evaluated in two weeks. Injuries to the feet are always a concern for a big man, especially one who has only played 62 games in two seasons due to back, thumb and ankle injuries.
Charlotte could be ripe for fantasy goodies with the return of LaMelo Ball. The pace is going to be fast and Ball will be setting up his bigs for easy buckets.
If Williams misses time, then Nick Richards would slide into his spot. Last season, Richards started 51 of 67 games and averaged 26.3 minutes, 9.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.1 blocks while shooting 69% from the field and 73% from the line.
New cylinders in Detroit
JB Bickerstaff is now the head man in Detroit after guiding the Cleveland Cavaliers the past four seasons. He’s a defensive-minded coach and also had success developing young talent, both of which are solely needed in Detroit. That wasn’t the only change, though. The Pistons added Tim Hardaway Jr., Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and Paul Reed to the roster.
The common theme with those acquisitions is shooting. Hardaway Jr. is a career 36% from downtown, Beasley is 38%, Harris is 37% and Reed shot 36% last season. Fine, Reed only attempted 0.7 treys last season and he wasn’t really brought in for his shooting. He’s there to back up Jalen Duren and provide some versatility. The others, though, are knock-down shooters.
What’s the main theme been in this piece? Accentuating the franchise guys. And that guy in Detroit is Cade Cunningham. This will essentially be his third season after suffering an injury early in his sophomore campaign. His numbers are good at 22.7 points, 1.9 treys, 4.3 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 0.9 steals while shooting 44% from the field, 35% from downtown and 86% from the line, but we haven’t seen his ceiling yet. With the new lineup construction, he could level up once again.
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Believe in Memphis? Ja
The Memphis Grizzlies got decimated last season due to injuries. Ja Morant only played nine games. Desmond Bane played 42. Marcus Smart appeared in only 20. Luke Kennard was on the court for 39 contests. Brandon Clarke was shut down after six games. While it was a lost season, the poor record allowed the Grizzlies to select Zach Edey in the draft.
Edey’s a polarizing prospect, for sure, as there are doubts that he can play in the modern NBA. I’m an Edey believer. I’ve selected him in two 30-team leagues and countless other redraft leagues. He’s a massive 7-foot-4 and 300 pounds with a 7-foot-10 wingspan. You cannot teach size. He also posted the fourth-best lane agility time among centers at the combine. He averaged over 32 minutes per contest at Purdue, can get buckets and was named the national college player of the year twice. I think he starts and plays close to 30 minutes. And minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe!
All that is well and good, but it’s the situation that is most appealing. Memphis is well versed in having this type of player at center. Steven Adams and Jonas Valanciunas used to man the position, utilizing drop coverage on defense and having them set massive picks on the perimeter. Edey will have the same role, except he’s a much better offensive player than Adams ever was.
Pick-and-roll action with Ja Morant is going to be deadly. Morant will have tons of space in the paint with Edey a threat to flush oops. If teams switch, Edey will punish those with his adept post play. The Morant/Edey pick-and-roll is going to open up things for all the shooters as well because teams are going to have to rotate down to help.
Memphis has been top 10 in pace every season Morant has been in the league, with top 3 finishes in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
Do I like the Grizzlies? Ja.
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Changes in SacTown
The big acquisition over the summer was DeMar DeRozan, and he now gives the Kings a three-headed monster with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. We won’t know how the usage and field-goal pies will be divided up until real games are played, but I currently have Fox going from 20 shots per game down to 18 while DeRozan maintains the 17 shots he received in Chicago.
On Monday, Mike Brown announced that Keon Ellis will start during the preseason. This is not a guarantee that he starts during the regular season, but it’s a good development for his fantasy prospects. Brown likes his defense, and Ellis shot 41% from downtown last season. Ellis also racked up 0.9 steals in 17.2 minutes per contest. I currently have Ellis playing around 25 minutes. The player most affected is Kevin Huerter, who was benched at times last season due to his shooting struggles and porous defense. I have him projected for 15 minutes while Malik Monk maintains his microwave role off the bench and should see around 26 minutes per contest.
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DeRozan arrives to Sacramento ready to win with Fox, Kings
OKC y’all in the finals?
The Thunder both addressed weaknesses and fortified a strength in the offseason. And that’s scary for the rest of the league because the Thunder tied for the best record in the Western Conference and were fourth in defensive efficiency. Now they added Alex Caruso, who is one of the best defenders in the NBA and shot 40% from downtown last season. The weaknesses? Rebounding and size.
With the acquisition of Isaiah Hartenstein, they have addressed both. Hartenstein is 7-feet, 250 pounds, averaged 8.3 rebounds per game and was seventh in offensive rebounds in only 25 minutes per contest. I have Hartenstein playing 26 minutes per contest, but there’s a chance he gets closer to 30. What is most intriguing about Hartenstein, though, is that he’s an excellent passer and should get plenty of good looks playing with all the offensive talent in OKC. I’m not sure about the 1.2 steals he nabbed last season being replicated, though, but he did it, so that would be gravy.
Not all Suns shining bright
As a Son, this headline depresses me a bit. But such is life, as light cannot exist without darkness. There are plenty of positive things I see with the Suns this season. I like the hiring of head coach Mike Budenholzer. The Milwaukee Bucks under Jason Kidd had a net rating of -0.3. Budenholzer got them to +8.5 the following season, then the team posted 9.5, 5.7, 3.3 and 3.6 marks, respectively, the next four seasons. But the biggest acquisition could be Tyus Jones, who will now be the starting point guard.
Jones has never averaged more than a turnover per game and is always near the top of assist-to-turnover ratio leaders. He can score, but his role will be to initiate the offense and distribute to the plethora of bucket getters on the squad. Jones averaged a career-high 7.3 dimes last season, and he could eclipse that mark this season. He also provided some steals and shot 41% from downtown.
Someone has to suffer, though, and that will most likely be Devin Booker, who played 91% of the time at point guard last season. His heavy PG usage led to a healthy 6.9 dimes, but I think that number drops down into the 4s. He’s still going to get buckets and the percentages will be excellent, but the loss of dimes affects his fantasy value.
One intriguing situation is that of Jusuf Nurkic. Budenholzer has said that he wants Nurkic shooting more treys. During the 2022-23 season in Portland, Nurkic attempted 2.3 treys per game and converted 36%. Budenholzer had Brook Lopez in Milwaukee, and the presence of a stretch-big opens up the paint for everyone else.
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Why the Suns’ second season with the ‘big three’ might be different
CP3 in San Antonio
Chris Paul is 39 years old and will be playing in his 20th season! Respect. I still remember when Paul was the Tasmanian Devil, whirling his way around defenders at high velocity during his early years. Now, he is a methodical surgeon, slicing and dicing defenses at a Chinese water torture pace. And that’s going to be a big difference for the Spurs, as they were third in offensive pace last season. As long as Paul plays, they will likely be one of the slowest. For fantasy, that’s not great because the number of possessions will decrease. The flip side to that, though, is the offense could be more efficient.
The biggest beneficiary will likely be Victor Wembanyama. Once again, smart teams do things to make life easier for their franchise players. Wembanyama shot 46% from the field last season and 32% from downtown. Paul could help get him closer to 50%, but much will depend on the three-point prowess.
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Why Spurs’ Chris Paul and Gregg Popovich are a perfect match in San Antonio
(Top photo of Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns: David Berding/Getty Images)
