By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
One of the strangest sights of the upcoming season: Steven Stamkos in a uniform that doesn’t belong to the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It’s not just that the Lightning let him walk in free agency, either. They ushered him out the door, the latest and largest in a series of cut-throat decisions aimed at continuing their run as one of the league’s most successful franchises in recent history.
The fact Tampa Bay is coming off its second straight first-round elimination isn’t a coincidence. Something needed to change. Will the juice be worth the squeeze?
The projection
If you think of the league in tiers, the Lightning start near the bottom of the upper class — the above-average teams. There’s a sizable gap between that group and the rest and there’s some safety in that chasm; the Lightning should be a playoff team this season for that reason.
But there’s also vulnerability that comes with being at the bottom of that tier.
While Tampa Bay pulled off an impressive retool that landed them star winger Jake Guentzel, there was enough veering in the wrong direction to make that move a necessity rather than a luxury. There were already cracks starting to show within the Lightning last season and while they did well to patch them, they aren’t quite a playoff lock.
The Lightning sit at 69 percent with plenty of questions about whether they can still be a Stanley Cup contender at this stage of their trajectory. With a 37 percent chance at hitting 100 points or more, it’s far more likely the Lightning end up as a wild-card team — or worse.
While there’s room for optimism in some avenues that suggest this forecast is too pessimistic, the Lightning aren’t as safe as their star power might indicate.
The big question
Are the Lightning too top-heavy up front?
Any team would’ve been lucky to sign Guentzel — at least, as lucky as you can be when you sign a 30-year-old winger for seven years and a $9 million cap hit. He reliably scores at a 35-goal pace, and he does it with plenty of substance.
None of that hinges on playing with Sidney Crosby, either, as some folks learned after the trade deadline. With Carolina, he scored at a 1.47 point-per-game pace (25 points in 17 games) overall; at five-on-five, he put up a 68 percent expected goals rate and helped his team outscore opponents 14-4. Effective forechecking, a solid transition game — he does a little bit of everything, and he does it all very well.
“He has a huge impact on winning games,” a coach said during the Player Tiers project, where Guentzel has risen all the way up to the top of the All-Star group. “He does everything right.”
Bringing him on makes a particular type of sense for the Lightning, though; they’ve increasingly lived and died by their best forwards, especially after their post-Cup salary bumps took effect. Why not replace one of those guys (Stamkos) with an updated model? Now, with Guentzel in the mix, only four teams are projected to get more value from their top five forwards. In Tampa’s case, that’s Nikita Kucherov, Guentzel, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli. Combined, they’ve got a projected Net Rating of plus-66.
From one perspective, adding Guentzel actually makes the Lightning less top-heavy. Stamkos will always be a franchise icon and remains a dangerous shooter, specifically on the power play. What he’s not — in 2024, at least — is a reliable five-on-five player. There, his scoring rate last season (1.81 points per 60) was on par with the Reilly Smiths and Jack Roslovics of the world, and his defensive impacts were significantly worse.
With him as a linemate, Kucherov and Point were actually outscored 21-17, and their expected goals percentage was even worse. The results were similar for Cirelli and Hagel. In fact, the only top-six combo that regularly won their minutes for Tampa Bay last season was Point between Hagel and Kucherov; with those three on the ice, the Lightning outscored their opponents 22-19 and controlled about 60 percent of the expected goals. If you’re going to be top-heavy, at least try to get two functioning lines out of it. That’s where Guentzel comes in — he’s a high-end producer with a diverse skill set who, maybe most importantly, will be able to mitigate some of Kucherov’s and Point’s defensive issues. That’s the Lightning’s plan, at least.
With him in the fold, Hagel can play full-time with Cirelli. The former has established himself as a play-driving, productive winger who can positively contribute in all three zones. On one hand, regular shifts with Point and Kucherov certainly didn’t hurt his numbers. On the other, 48 even-strength points speak for themselves. Most importantly, when he and Cirelli got away from Stamkos last season, the Lightning controlled their minutes, outscoring opponents 20-17 and winning high-danger chances 86-60.
The issue, as we established, is a lack of options outside that top five, even to play right wing on a second line. A high-volume shooter like Michael Eyssimont could fit, though he’s going to miss games with a lower-body injury and has never produced on a top six. Cam Atkinson makes sense as a reclamation project, but … he’s still a reclamation project.
Zooming out a bit further, the only other Lightning forward who projects to be above-average relative to his spot in the lineup is Nick Paul. There’s no denying their depth is going to be a problem — and it’s a problem that was exacerbated by the outright failure of the Tanner Jeannot gambit. The Lightning bet on him being a core bottom-six piece for several seasons and got two years’ worth of poor play. Now they’re staring at a bottom seven projected to put up a minus-51 Net Rating, second to last in the league. Whoops!
Still, what they did over the summer makes sense. Adding a legit prime piece rather than two mid-grade pieces while banking on a trickle-down effect and some decent luck? That’s a reasonable course of action. Time to see if it works.
The wild card
Can Andrei Vasilevskiy bounce back to be an elite starter?
For the second straight year, there are question marks surrounding the Lightning’s No. 1.
Vasilevskiy has shown he can be one of the best goalies in the world. But he is coming off an uncharacteristic season where he fell below average relative to his workload and put up a career-low 0.899 save percentage. How much of that was due to back surgery that held him out until November?
By March, Vasilevskiy started to round into form, which indicates injury was indeed what held him back. But by the time he had started to pick up the pace, the team in front of him had made life a lot more difficult.
That down year is why Vasilevskiy is coming into this season with a plus-six Net Rating after being projected to be worth about a plus-16 over 60 games played before last season. Adding in Jonas Johansson’s minus-6 rating brings the value of the Lightning’s crease to 20th in the league.
If last season can purely be chalked up to his back injury, the Lightning should be in luck. Vasilevskiy is a game-changer who can help carry his team to the playoffs and steal a series there.
Say he came into this season with last year’s projected plus-16 Net Rating. That would push the Lightning up to a 99-point forecast that would tie them with the New Jersey Devils for ninth in the league. Consider that to be a loose range for the Lightning this season, one that hinges entirely on how much Vasilevskiy can rebound.
The strengths
It’s no surprise that on a top-heavy team like the Lightning, their stars are their greatest strength.
The Lightning adopted a strategy at the start of their Stanley Cup window: Build a core and supplement the rest of the talent around them. A foundational part of that core departed with Stamkos signing in Nashville, but that’s a loss only in emotional sentiment. Guentzel is an easy upgrade and there are still a lot of other elite players in Tampa Bay ready to lead the way.
That starts with the No. 1 forward on this team and one of the most valuable players in the league, Kucherov.
With 144 points last season, Kucherov won the Art Ross Trophy and finished second in the Hart Trophy race. Sometimes, aspects of his game get underrated because he doesn’t have Nathan MacKinnon’s power or Connor McDavid’s speed. But he attacks the game in a methodical way, using his vision, strength and hands to anticipate opponents’ mistakes, win puck battles and create dangerous offensive opportunities. Sure, the flaws are there — Kucherov’s game is heavily influenced by the power play, empty-net scoring pumped up his numbers, and he has weaknesses back in his own zone. But he isn’t some pushover at even strength, either. No one influenced the Lightning’s expected and actual goal generation more than Kucherov. Even with flaws and weaknesses, Kucherov is one of the most offensively dominant players in the world. That brings his Net Rating up to a plus-24, which leads all wingers league-wide and ranks fourth in total.
With Kucherov comes Point, his primary center. While Kucherov brings a slower, more cerebral approach, Point is an engine. His explosive skating makes him a huge threat in transition, which tends to earn him praise around the league. “He can do it himself at times. He can be the straw that stirs the drink. As good as Kucherov is, when Point is going, he’s the guy that drives you crazy,” one scout said for this year’s Player Tiers.
Right now, Point brings a spark to the Lightning. But he has the skill to become the driver of this core if he can push his game forward from its already impressive heights.
Hagel joins Tampa Bay’s core after a dominant 2023-24. He does a little bit of everything at five-on-five. Hagel’s become an elite puck-mover between his transition game and playmaking. He adds dimension to his game with his goal-scoring ability and helps extend zone time with his tenacious forechecking. And unlike some of the Lightning’s leading stars, he’s solid back in his own zone.
The question this year is whether Hagel sticks with Kucherov and Point or if he becomes a mainstay alongside shutdown center Cirelli. Hagel’s offense should help elevate that aspect of Cirelli’s game, even if they’re tasked with going up against top competition.
The reason for Hagel’s potential shift to Line 2? The addition of Guentzel.
On paper, Guentzel looks like a perfect fit in Tampa Bay. The firepower he brings is obvious and will help the Lightning navigate the post-Stamkos era. But he contributes to his team’s offense in more ways, between his rush game, passing and forechecking. Guentzel tends to make his team a lot more dangerous offensively in his minutes and showed in his stint with the Carolina Hurricanes that he isn’t just a product of Crosby.
Along with elite talent at the top of the forward group, the Lightning have Victor Hedman on the back end. Hedman’s still a master of turning defense into offense. He retrieves pucks at a high rate and leads the breakout from the defensive zone in Tampa Bay. He tends to help drive the Lightning’s quality chance generation and raise his game when it matters most.
With Ryan McDonagh back behind him on the second pair, Hedman should have more defensive support after playing on a very thin blue over the last couple of seasons. McDonagh showed last season in Nashville he still has something left in the tank. He became an important part of the Predators blue line and helped the team trend back up the standings and into the playoff race.
His return to Tampa Bay won’t only benefit Hedman but Erik Cernak as well. McDonagh and Cernak formed a reliable shutdown pair for four years between 2018 and 2022 that took on matchup minutes. The Lightning generally tilted the ice with these two on. If they can revive their chemistry, it should help the Lightning tighten up and give Vasilevskiy some more support.
The weaknesses
For all the elite offense the Lightning’s core boasts, there are some glaring weaknesses on the other end of the ice.
Kucherov’s defensive woes are well-documented, but Hedman’s are now becoming more of a red flag. The Lightning haven’t broken even in expected goals in two straight years with Hedman on the ice at five-on-five — and he’s not the one taking the toughs, either. It all stems from just how much Tampa Bay has conceded in his minutes, which stacks up poorly relative to his teammates.
As much as the blue line has collapsed around Hedman in recent years, he hasn’t been able to stop the bleeding in his minutes. All of the subtractions made on the back end in recent years for cap purposes have left Hedman more exposed, and maybe even exacerbated some signs of age-related decline.
With McDonagh back in Tampa Bay to soak up matchup minutes, the Lightning should be able to maximize Hedman more. But that still doesn’t change the fact those weaknesses have been a steady development in their No. 1 defenseman’s game. The Lightning need more from their No. 1.
Even with McDonagh back in the fold, which should elevate Cernak and support Hedman, there are still holes on this blue line around them. The most glaring remains on the right side of the top pair.
Nick Perbix and Hedman clicked on the surface in almost 400 minutes of five-on-five time last season. But they seemed to benefit from the team shooting 12.7 percent in their minutes and a 0.921 save percentage from the Lightning’s goalies. For as much as the pair helped Tampa Bay generate quality chances, they gave up even more back.
Another option for that first pair is Darren Raddysh, who meshed better with Hedman last year to more sustainable results. Still, whether Perbix or Raddysh is tapped for an expanded role, a defenseman with a minus-4 Net Rating would slot up to the first pair which just isn’t ideal for a team with playoff aspirations. Unless Hedman can find the magic of years past, he may not be able to elevate his partner enough to balance it all out.
The Lightning are also testing out offseason addition Janis Moser alongside Hedman in training camp. While he grades out even lower than Raddysh and Perbix with a minus-5 Net Rating, that’s mostly a product of taking on a tough role early in his career on a bad team. The 24-year-old still has room to grow and showed as much last season with a jump to minus-2.5 — relatively to top-four caliber.
Still, that progress came while playing his natural side, the left, after playing on the right for parts of 2022-23. Playing his off side wasn’t necessarily Moser’s undoing in 2022-23, but shifting to the right while adjusting to a new team and meaningful minutes on the top pair could be a tall ask.
The Lightning’s backup goalie, Johansson, only adds to the team’s suspect supporting cast. While he was put in a tough situation to open last season, the model takes all of his struggles over the last five years into account.
For all the gaps on defense and behind Vasilevskiy in goal, the Lightning’s more pressing depth issues may be up front.
Tampa Bay’s forward depth is outright brutal. Besides third-line center Paul, no one stacks up to their projected role in the bottom six. And no one looks cut out to jump up to the second line, even with the support of Hagel and Cirelli.
That starts with offseason signing Cam Atkinson. In his prime, Atkinson was a speedy, shoot-first winger who could be counted on to disrupt opponents in all situations. But his production has faded in recent seasons, as has his two-way impact at five-on-five. Expecting a third-line-caliber season from him at this point may be a stretch, let alone a potential second-line role.
Between Atkinson, Conor Sheary and Eyssimont, the Lightning’s Offensive Rating is dragged down by minus-20 — and none make up for what they lack with strong defense. That’s an area Zemgus Girgensons and Luke Glendening may assist with, but at what cost? They tank the team’s Offensive Rating by minus-25. Add in Mitchell Chaffee and it sinks further to a minus-33.
The Lightning’s pros still outweigh the cons thanks to their star-studded core, but this team’s construction is flawed and there aren’t many ways to fix it. Management has to operate on a strict budget with few assets at their disposal.
The best case
The superstars shine bright, especially Vasilevskiy whose Vezina-worthy season pushes Tampa Bay back to the top of the Atlantic — and back to the Stanley Cup Final.
The worst case
Depth is Tampa Bay’s demise as a wretched bottom six sours all the goodwill brought forth by an elite core. To make matters worse, Vasilevskiy’s struggles from last season continue to the point that the Lightning are a narrow playoff miss.
The bottom line
The Lightning deserve credit for trying to keep their window open as long as possible, but it’s still been a long time since they’ve started a season with this many question marks. A playoff run used to feel like an inevitability, and those days might be over.
References
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
(Photo of Andrei Vasilevskiy: David Kirouac / Imagn Images)
