By Jeff Zrebiec, Mike DeFabo, Zac Jackson and Paul Dehner Jr.
Each week during the regular season and occasionally during the offseason, our AFC North beat writers gather for a roundtable discussion on the happenings, player movement and pressing issues facing all four teams. It’s time to analyze what we’ve learned heading into Week 6.
After very different defeats last week that dropped each to 1-4, are the Browns and Bengals cooked? Might one still have a pulse? Or is the state of Ohio just going to need to count on the Buckeyes and Mount Union for postseason play?
Jeff Zrebiec (Ravens): To me, this year’s Browns and Bengals have very little in common beyond the two things mentioned above: They’re both 1-4 and both play in Ohio. I left Paycor Stadium on Sunday thinking that the rest of the AFC really should hope the Bengals lose at least four more times and aren’t in the playoff mix. That’s a really dangerous team with an offense playing at an extremely high level. Their defense is bad, but even minor improvements, when coupled with that offense, will allow them to win a good number of games. Make no mistake, a 1-4 hole is challenging to dig out of, but they have a last-place schedule and I believe they are good enough to go 9-3 or 10-2 down the stretch. As for the Browns, they look like a mess with too many issues to solve and too little time to do it to salvage their season.
Mike DeFabo (Steelers): Before the season, I expected Joe Burrow’s return would instantly transform the Bengals into a contender. I guess I forgot that he doesn’t also play defensive back. It says something that Burrow has been nearly perfect frequently. He ranks second in completion percentage (72.3) and passer rating (113.6), but it still has not been enough to overcome porous defense. I still have faith in Burrow, and there’s plenty of time to rebound. But unless the defense finds a way to improve, it will be a struggle to fight back to playoff contention. Oh, and the Browns are cooked.
Zac Jackson (Browns): I picked the Bengals to win the division before the season. It was my strongest NFL prediction of the year. It’s, like, my second time being wrong, but I still think there’s a shot they can turn things around. Burrow has delivered late in the season before. Up in my neighborhood, well, we’re prepping for draft season. The NFL is a hard, hard game that becomes even harder when you’re not good at blocking, tackling or passing. And that’s not the whole list, really. I’m not sure if I’d play Travis Hunter at left tackle or quarterback for the 2025 Browns, but it’s nearly time to start discussing that.
Paul Dehner Jr. (Bengals): I’m not counting the Bengals out yet. The schedule ahead and the fact Burrow is playing the best football of his career suggest they have a run in them. We’ve seen them rip off streaks before. The defense needs to start playing even below-average football and the offense can carry them. The Browns look cooked for the same reason the Bengals don’t — quarterback play.
The temperature is dropping across AFC North country. What’s the temperature of the seat for the head coach you cover? With election season coming, what’s his approval rating with his fan base?
Zrebiec: I always try and remind myself that X responders and sports talk radio callers are typically the loud minority, but there has clearly been a shift the past few seasons with a small (but growing) portion of the Ravens fan base ready for the post-John Harbaugh era. It’s been mostly inspired by a few of the team’s playoff no-shows (like January’s AFC Championship Game) and the disturbing trend of late-game meltdowns. Each loss — or even close win — seems to bring a wave of fan questions about whether Harbaugh’s on the hot seat. Here’s the thing: The only person who can put Harbaugh on the hot seat is owner Steve Bisciotti, who has a close relationship with his highly successful head coach. Bisciotti puts a ton of value on maintaining a strong culture and fielding a team that’s in the playoff mix every year and is ready to play every Sunday. Harbaugh gets high marks in all of those areas. The Ravens have plenty of work to do over the next couple of months, and it probably would take either this regular season going sideways or another underachieving postseason for there to be legitimate questions about Harbaugh’s future in Baltimore.
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DeFabo: Mike Tomlin works for an organization that prides itself on stability. If there were any questions about the temperature of his seat, he just inked a contract extension that runs through 2027. Truthfully, there may not be an employee in America with more job security. However, Tomlin’s public approval rating is an entirely different, more polarizing conversation. Any coach who brings a Lombardi Trophy to Pittsburgh will always be held in high regard. There certainly are some in Pittsburgh who celebrate that Tomlin has never had a losing season. However, the “non-losing-season streak” recently has turned into a tongue-in-cheek jab as a fan base used to competing in the playoffs hasn’t enjoyed a postseason win since 2016. There’s no chance Tomlin will lose his job anytime soon. But if he fails to produce a playoff win yet again, he will continue to lose support among fans who expect postseason success, not another 10-7 or 9-8 season that flames out in the wild-card round.
Mike Tomlin is 176-102-2 in the regular season and 8-10 in the postseason in his 18 seasons with the Steelers. (Barry Reeger / Imagn Images)
Jackson: Reigning NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski just got a big contract extension, and there’s a strong, strong chance that he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. But these are the Browns, under the same ownership since 2012 and almost always a circus for 25 years now. The Deshaun Watson experiment is a complete disaster and will cost people jobs sooner or later. Stefanski probably isn’t going to lose his now, in three months or even in three years. But changes are coming unless a major change in the results and the offensive operation comes soon, so stay tuned. As for Stefanski’s approval rating, check the 1-4 record and multiply by the fan base’s frustration with Watson’s play and the record money spent on the roster.
Dehner Jr.: Remember where President Biden’s approval numbers were when he dropped out of the race? That’s about where Zac Taylor is residing after Sunday’s overtime loss. Fans want his head after the conservative overtime play calls. That doesn’t mean his seat is hot. The heating pad is in the closet, unplugged and not working. This is Cincinnati, where change moves at a glacial pace with head coaches. He’s calling plays for the most potent offense in recent franchise memory and has a history of leading runs late in the season. The sheen has certainly come off at 1-4, but nobody with any sense of the organization thinks for a second his seat is hot.
Every team has weaknesses and, as noted above, some are more glaring and hurtful than others. But if you had to pick one that most directly relates to the team you cover either reaching or failing to reach its ceiling, which one would you choose ahead of Week 6?
Zrebiec: What was supposed to be the Ravens’ strength is the team’s biggest flaw. They have the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense after Burrow cut them to ribbons Sunday. All three defensive levels own responsibility for that, but the secondary’s woes stand out. A secondary featuring two solid veteran corners in Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Stephens, first-round corner Nate Wiggins and a safety duo of All-Pro Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams has looked overwhelmed at times. There have been blown coverages, communication issues, too many penalties and ill-timed missed tackles. The Ravens have faced four of the top quarterbacks in the league, but that’s not an excuse for how often defensive backs have gotten footballs thrown over their heads. You can’t win 41-38 every week. The Ravens need to start covering people and impacting the quarterback or they are doomed.
Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey break up a pass intended for Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. The Ravens need to see more pass defense successes like this. (Kevin Jairaj / Imagn Images)
DeFabo: The Steelers have made a concerted effort in the draft and with recent hires to become a dominant rushing team. They’re definitely running the ball a lot — their 164 carries rank third through five weeks — but at 3.7 yards per carry, that doesn’t mean they’re doing it well. What was supposed to be the offense’s strength looks like a work in progress. One issue is the offensive line is injured and inexperienced. The Steelers lost first-round pick Troy Fautanu, who was slated to start at right tackle, to a season-ending knee injury. Starting right guard James Daniels sustained a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 4. Stud left guard Isaac Seumalo, who is supposed to be the team’s best lineman, missed the first four games with a pec injury and showed lots of rust in his debut against the Cowboys. And 2023 first-round pick Broderick Jones is going through a bit of a sophomore slump. Couple that with inconsistencies from running back Najee Harris and injuries to fellow running backs Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson and you can see why the Steelers aren’t playing to their standards. As attrition hits defenses around the league and the weather gets colder, it’s reasonable to expect another surge as the season continues. The Steelers run game improved in the second half of the last two seasons and will need to do it again to make any noise in December.
Jackson: Is still owing Watson more than $170 million on the salary cap a weakness? It’s truly not all the quarterback’s fault, but to try to actually answer the question, the primary issue is that the offense doesn’t have just one weakness. It’s impossible to know what the Browns are even trying to be from an identity and game plan standpoint, and that’s just not acceptable at any point past mid-September. The Browns have had penalties, drops, missed blocks, missed receivers and a general lack of organization that have made it impossible to build on any small successes they’ve had.
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Dehner Jr.: I appreciate this layup in honor of the return of basketball season. The defense went in for the dreaded players-only meeting this week, the final sign that they are out of answers and about to go off the cliff. The funny thing is, however, as much as the defense is the reason the Bengals will fail to reach their ceiling, I’m actually more concerned about the team’s inability to finish games. They had games against the Chiefs and Ravens wrapped up, but offense, defense and special teams all made losing plays late in the games to blow it. Yeah, the defense is garnering all the attention for failure, but if they can’t start figuring out how to finish in a hurry, even incremental improvement on that side won’t matter.
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Call your shots for the weekend. Can the Browns show some fight in Philly against an Eagles team coming off a bye? Can the Bengals win on national TV? Can the Steelers score 20 against the Raiders? And in the main event, the Battle of the Beltway, who are you taking?
Zrebiec: At some point, the Browns and Watson will probably have one of those “Where has this been all year?” performances, but I can’t give them the benefit of the doubt against an Eagles team that should get some of its top guys back this week. That one could get ugly. The Bengals will handle the Giants, and I can’t see the Steelers losing a third straight week to a team they should beat. Given Lamar Jackson’s dominance against the NFC and Baltimore’s strong history against rookie quarterbacks, I’ll take the Ravens in a high-scoring affair in Charm City.
DeFabo: I won’t pick the Browns again until they prove me wrong. The Steelers might not score 20 points, but they’ll win. The Bengals will try to jump-start their winning streak with a win over the Giants and they should. The way Jayden Daniels is playing, it’s hard to pick against him.
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Jackson: Here’s a Maryland football stat for you: Navy has 849 passing yards in five games. Navy. Deshaun Watson has 852. I want to think the Browns will more resemble a real NFL team, but I thought they would last week, too. Eagles 23-13. I actually like both the Bengals and Steelers to win big, both in the range of 30-17. It should be a fun and wild one in Baltimore, and I think it will come down to the end. I’ll take the Ravens 34-31.
Dehner Jr.: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Lane Johnson all returning to practice could spell doom for Cleveland; they should breathe life back into that offense and a desperate team for a win. I think the Bengals win on Sunday because Burrow wills it, but there’s a very realistic timeline where the Giants run for 150 yards and Dexter Lawrence wrecks Ted Karras and the offensive line. First to 40 wins again this week for the Ravens, who I think will be able to get Derrick Henry back on track and play some ball control against Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and Daniels.
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(Top photo of Deshaun Watson and Joe Burrow: Peter Casey and Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
