NHL Power Rankings: A new No. 1 plus one reason to be optimistic about each team

We’re officially one month into the season, and we’re starting to get a better grasp of what each team is made of.

Some teams are made of a bit more than others, sure, but every team has at least some redeemable quality worthy of optimism. Whether it’s a lethal power play, a breakout season or strong goaltending, there’s reason for positivity across the board.

That’s the theme for this week: One reason to be optimistic about each team.

Last week: 3
Sean’s ranking: 1
Dom’s ranking: 1

We’ll give you two here because the first one is equal parts boring and predictable. Connor Hellebuyck, in a 1-0 win over Colorado on Thursday night, reminded us that he’s, in fact, the biggest reason to believe in the Jets. Hellebuyck stopped all 35 shots the Avalanche put on him and racked up more than four goals saved above expected. Beastly stuff, as usual, against a high-end opponent.

Offensively, meanwhile, Winnipeg has done well to spread out its production. Guys like Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers and Mark Scheifele, as you’d expect, are at the top of the overall scoring list — but Mason Appleton leads the team with nine five-on-five points. Nino Niederreiter has four five-on-five goals. Adam Lowry is in the mix, as well. Secondary scoring and elite goaltending can get you a long way.

Last week: 2
Sean’s ranking: 2
Dom’s ranking: 2

Don’t look now but the team that needed more oomph per 60 has:

The Canes are a wagon. And it doesn’t feel the same as usual. The most optimistic thing we can say about Carolina: It’s hard to find a reason to be pessimistic.

Last week: 5
Sean’s ranking: 3
Dom’s ranking: 3

If you were worried about Aleksander Barkov starting slowly after missing nearly three weeks with a lower-body injury, it’s safe to stop. In four games since returning to the lineup, Barkov has 10 points and an average Game Score of 3.2. That’s best-in-the-league stuff. The Panthers are good enough without their franchise center. With him, though? Watch out.

Last week: 1
Sean’s ranking: 4
Dom’s ranking: 4

We’ll give Jake Oettinger a pass for laying an egg against the Panthers in Finland; it was his first truly bad outing of the season, and he followed it up with a 25-save game against the Panthers, bringing his save percentage up to .922 and moving back into the top five in goals saved above expected.

It’s a strong start for Oettinger, who had more wobbly stretches in 2023-24 than most of us expected. Nothing would make the Stars scarier than him turning Vezina-caliber talent into Vezina-caliber play throughout a full season.

Last week: 4
Sean’s ranking: 5
Dom’s ranking: 6

The Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy last season and came up just a couple wins short of reaching the Stanley Cup Final. Impressive stuff made all the more impressive by the fact they were without Filip Chytil for all but 10 regular season games and six playoff games. His presence anchoring the third line is huge for this club and is one reason to believe this could be the Rangers year. This year he’s showing exactly what the team was missing last year, dominating his minutes to the tune of a 66 percent xG rate.

Last week: 6
Sean’s ranking: 7
Dom’s ranking: 5

Besides having two awards watch dark horses (Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber), one thing to feel good about as a Wild fan is that the captain is back and looks just as good as usual. The Wild felt the loss of Jared Spurgeon greatly last season and there were some questions regarding how he’d look after such a long layoff. So far, so good as Spurgeon helps elevate the Wild’s top four from solid to elite.

Last week: 7
Sean’s ranking: 6
Dom’s ranking: 8

We’ll re-up a bit from this week’s 16 Stats — the Capitals have won Alex Ovechkin’s five-on-five minutes 13-3. It’s tough to imagine a bigger reason for Caps-related optimism than that. It’s far from the only reason, though; all four of Washington’s regular lines are handling their business, and Pierre-Luc Dubois (between Connor McMichael and Tom Wilson) is doing it against difficult competition.

Overall, it’s made the Capitals a team worth taking seriously. They’ve got the second-best points percentage in the Metro and are playing at a 123-point pace.

Last week: 10
Sean’s ranking: 8
Dom’s ranking: 7

Jack Eichel — hello. What a start it’s been for Eichel who is finally putting some big numbers on the board. It’s always felt like Eichel has been holding out on us, capable of popping off for a 100-point season, but topping out at only 82 back in 2019. Even his career-high pace sits at 94 back in 2020.

This year though, Eichel looks poised to smash career bests. After 13 games he’s playing at a 120-point pace. That’s hot.

Last week: 9
Sean’s ranking: 9
Dom’s ranking: 9

Congratulations, Nico Hischier — you’re scoring enough goals to win the Selke Trophy. His 10 are tied for the league lead, even though he’s gone three games and counting without one. Hischier’s shooting percentage isn’t likely to stay in the 20s all season long, and most of his damage has been done on the power play, but it’s still a seriously encouraging level of production for New Jersey.

Most importantly, it all comes alongside defensive numbers that are far more in line with Hischier’s level-up season in 2022-23. He had a lot to gain under Sheldon Keefe, and he’s back to looking like a two-way force.

Last week: 13
Sean’s ranking: 10
Dom’s ranking: 10

It’s been written and discussed plenty in the last 24 hours, but we’ll re-up it here: Quinn Hughes is playing like a dude who’s eminently capable of winning his second straight Norris Trophy, and Thursday night against the Kings brought more of the same. He scored a goal and set up another, and Vancouver won the scoring chance battle 9-2 while he was on the ice. Dominance.

11. Los Angeles Kings, 8-4-3

Last week: 11
Sean’s ranking: 11
Dom’s ranking: 11

Adrian Kempe has been a really nice player for a while now, thanks particularly to his goal-scoring, but he’s shown signs of adding some more substance to his game. He’s posting the best goal shares of his career (64.6 percent actual, 55.6 expected), and the Kings are scoring 4.39 goals per 60 with him on the ice, 30th among forwards with at least 50 minutes played. Does playing on a line with Anze Kopitar hurt? Certainly not — but Kempe emerging as a true first-line-caliber winger, rather than a solid support piece, would be big for the Kings.

Last week: 12
Sean’s ranking: 12
Dom’s ranking: 12

Sometimes it’s better to stack strengths rather than complement them. The Leafs have seemed to figure that out with their new-look top four, putting Chris Tanev next to Jack McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson next to Morgan Rielly. That switch has paid big dividends so far with two pairs playing at a high level. The shutdown pair has 63 percent of the expected goals (with 1.31 xGA/60) while the offensive unit sits at 57 percent.

The Leafs may not have an elite No. 1, but they may have their strongest top four in the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era.

Last week: 8
Sean’s ranking: 13
Dom’s ranking: 13

Victor Hedman is back. Maybe he never really left. Maybe he needed a capable partner. Maybe he just needed someone else to take over shutdown duties (Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak look strong so far). Either way, he looks like the best version of himself to start the season: 13 points in 14 games, 59 percent xG, up 15-6 on the scoreboard. Elite.

Last week: 24
Sean’s ranking: 14
Dom’s ranking: 15

When the Bruins signed Nikita Zadorov, there was a fair amount of sticker shock to his price tag. At $5 million per year, the Bruins were expecting a career third-pair guy to slide seamlessly into their top four. Zadorov felt like a great fit, but that’s a tall ask.

So far so good though for Zadorov who has played well next to Charlie McAvoy, especially defensively. He’s been worth the money so far and feels like the missing piece the team has long been looking for in their top four. That bodes well for Boston’s playoff quest.

Last week: 25
Sean’s ranking: 15
Dom’s ranking: 17

A spot on the top six opened up when Anthony Duclair went down with an injury, and Maxim Tsyplakov has grabbed it; the Isles’ expected goal share with him on the ice is 61 percent, and he already has eight five-on-five points. Tsyplakov is in his first season in North America after seven in the KHL.

Last week: 14
Sean’s ranking: 18
Dom’s ranking: 14

Stuart Skinner hasn’t been his best this season, there’s no dancing around that. But his current .885 save percentage and minus-2.1 GSAx is a bit misleading thanks to an opening night stinker where he allowed five goals on 13 shots. Since? He’s been mostly fine with a .901 save percentage and two goals saved above expected.

That’s one less problem to worry about for an Oilers team that’s started very slow again this season — and you have to figure the rest of the roster will sort itself out soon.

17. Colorado Avalanche, 6-8-0

Last week: 15
Sean’s ranking: 17
Dom’s ranking: 16

It’s only been two games, but getting Artturi Lehkonen back in the lineup is a big deal for the Avs. His power-play goal against Seattle is a nice example — Lehkonen was ready, willing and able to convert on a great chance created by Nathan MacKinnon. Colorado, for the time being, is a little short on players like that.

Last week: 17
Sean’s ranking: 16
Dom’s ranking: 18

Dylan Guenther scored his seventh goal of the season — a late tie-breaker against St. Louis — on a lucky bounce off Colton Parayko. If more of those start going in, look out; Guenther doesn’t need much help. He looks like the real deal. Credit to him for a nice defensive play to start the 2-on-1, too.

Last week: 20
Sean’s ranking: 19
Dom’s ranking: 19

It took a lot of self-control not to talk about Tage Thompson again. He’s the main reason for any optimism in Buffalo, but not the only one. JJ Peterka caught our eye with a really strong start scoring six goals and 11 points in 11 games while also putting up some excellent play-driving impacts. Peterka might be the team’s best forward after Tage — and he’s only 22. The best is yet to come.

Oh, and a dominant 6-1 win over the Rangers should offer some extra optimism, too. Maybe the Sabres aren’t completely cooked after all.

Last week: 16
Sean’s ranking: 20
Dom’s ranking: 20

Ottawa’s season may not be going as well as some fans hoped so far, but at the very least the team’s core is proving itself early. Both Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk entered the season with questions regarding whether they were the type of high-level franchise cornerstones that Cup contenders are built around. Both are answering those questions early with hot starts scoring well above a point-per-game while tilting the ice at five-on-five. Even if this isn’t the year the Senators take a step forward, they’re in good hands with Stützle and Tkachuk back on track.

Last week: 26
Sean’s ranking: 21
Dom’s ranking: 21

The Red Wings’ power play is the real deal. No team is generating more scoring chances right now than Detroit and it’s led to a top-10 unit. The team may still be figuring things out at even strength, but they make up for that (to an extent) with an elite power play.

Last week: 22
Sean’s ranking: 22
Dom’s ranking: 22

Is it too early to talk about Calgary’s trade bait? Well, we’re gonna do it anyway.

Rasmus Andersson has two years left on a very appetizing $4.55 million deal and is currently on fire with four goals and 11 points in his first 13 games of the season. Any playoff team looking for some electricity from the backend would be thrilled to have Andersson whose hot start has probably driven up the haul Calgary could command for his services. That’s good news for the team’s rebuild.

23. St. Louis Blues, 7-7-0

Last week: 19
Sean’s ranking: 23
Dom’s ranking: 23

Both of the Blues’ Offer Sheet Boyz avoided disaster this week. Philip Broberg’s lower-body injury will cost him 4-6 weeks but easily could’ve been worse, and Dylan Holloway … well, we all know what happened to him. Sighs of relief all around.

Both have looked good, too. Broberg, with more points than any Blues forward not named Jordan Kyrou, is showing the offensive-defenseman chops that made him attractive in the first place, and Holloway has earned top-six minutes. Seems like money (and draft capital) well spent.

Last week: 23
Sean’s ranking: 24
Dom’s ranking: 24

Odds are good that you were already rooting for Sean Monahan, and he has indeed gone out and had himself a productive first month, scoring a team-leading six goals and looking every bit the power-play factor he was in Montreal and Winnipeg last season.

Where Monahan has really helped steady the ship, though, is at five-on-five; he, along with Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakov, have formed one of the most effective lines in the league, outscoring opponents 8-2 and controlling about 67 percent of the expected goal share. The latter is eighth in the league among duos with at least 50 minutes spent together.

25. Seattle Kraken, 5-8-1

Last week: 18
Sean’s ranking: 25
Dom’s ranking: 25

Seattle backed up the Brinks truck to Brandon Montour’s house this summer and so far he’s rewarded the Kraken with a stellar start. He’s been an offensive machine with 10 points in 13 games to start, shouldering a lot of the offensive load with Vince Dunn sidelined. Once Dunn returns, the Kraken should have a strong one-two punch on the backend, a nice luxury for a team that thrives via its forward depth.

Last week: 27
Sean’s ranking: 26
Dom’s ranking: 27

We should exercise some light caution here because he’s put up an .864 save percentage over his last two starts, but Lukáš Dostál’s performance overall (.930 save percentage, second in the league in goals saved above expected) is an unquestioned bit of good news for the Ducks. We knew he was NHL-caliber; now he’s looking more like a legit above-average option. If that sticks, it would help the Ducks a) win more games b) ease the load on John Gibson once he returns and c) make a Gibson trade a bit more feasible. Not a bad combo.

Last week: 29
Sean’s ranking: 27
Dom’s ranking: 26

For Pittsburgh, it might truly be a one-item list; it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin play together at five-on-five this frequently, and the results have been good. With them on the ice, along with Rickard Rakell, the Penguins are outscoring opponents 6-2 and controlling close to 70 percent of the expected goals.

Last week: 21
Sean’s ranking: 28
Dom’s ranking: 29

At least one of the Preds’ old fellas is handling business. Ryan O’Reilly, for a second straight season, is back to looking a lot like a first-line center, helping Nashville to a 57-percent expected goal share and playing tough minutes. The question, of course, is whether he stays with Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist.

Last week: 28
Sean’s ranking: 29
Dom’s ranking: 28

Last year was a weird one for the Flyers. They looked legitimately good at times, but it all felt too early for where they were in their trajectory. For a team committed to doing a rebuild the right way, the surprising success had the Flyers veering on the wrong path.

This year though? The train is back on its tracks heading straight toward the league’s basement. And that’s for the best as finding franchise cornerstone friends for Matvei Michkov is pivotal for this team’s future. The Flyers entered Thursday’s contest against the Lightning with an eight percent chance at the first overall pick.

Last week: 31
Sean’s ranking: 30
Dom’s ranking: 30

Chicago’s record may not offer much optimism, but at the very least the Blackhawks are hanging in there on most nights — way more than last year anyway. A leap from 40.7 percent of the expected goals last year to 47.5 this season is nothing to scoff at. It’s the second-biggest jump of any team so far this season. That’s real progress… even if it doesn’t feel like it.

Last week: 30
Sean’s ranking: 31
Dom’s ranking: 31

Goal Caufield can’t stop scoring. The best 40-goal scorer who’s never scored 30 finally looks like the sniper he was hyped to be with 10 goals in his first 13 games. That’s tied for the league lead. Caufield needs 30 more over his next 68 games to hit 40 — we say he does it.

Last week: 32
Sean’s ranking: 32
Dom’s ranking: 32

Welcome back, Macklin Celebrini.

(Top photo of Connor Hellebuyck and Dylan Samberg: James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images)



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