Ichiro! … Billy Wagner! … CC Sabathia! … Dustin Pedroia!
They’re all on the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot that was unveiled this week. I don’t know if Ichiro is about to get 100 percent of the vote. But I was 100 percent certain you’d have lots of fun, thoughtful questions about that — and a bunch of other storylines swirling over this year’s Hall election.
Of course, you didn’t let me down. The questions were great. I apologize that I couldn’t get to them all. So now let’s dive into another edition of our ever-popular Hall of Fame subscriber mailbag.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
If the Hall of Fame had a special “best of the best” wing (for people like Ruth, Gibson, Mays, etc.), and you had a vote, would you put Ichiro in it? Why or why not? Psst. I would. 🙂 — Matthew P.
Hey Matthew! You’re really trying to get me into trouble here. No matter how I answer, why do I think there might be a few billion people who disagree?
Aw, whatever. Here’s my big question: How large would this wing be, anyway? Ten players? How about 25? More? Less? I need help with that, because it would determine how I would answer your question.
You did cause me to hand out a homework assignment — to myself — to try to list who else would be in that wing. I got to 20 position players pretty easily.
I haven’t done that list with pitchers yet, but I’m guessing I wouldn’t have any trouble finding 20 of them, either. So as long as your wing had 50 plaques, here’s my verdict:
Ichiro belongs!
And yes, I’m aware that he has fewer wins above replacement than Sal Bando and the same career OPS+ as Rance Mulliniks. To me, that’s a lesson in why we need to look at more than just WAR and OPS+ when we go through the voting process. Everything else about Ichiro screams all-time Hall of Famer, as you obviously know.
We would probably have to acknowledge the Japan years to get him there, but I’m cool with that if you are. Once we include his Japan statistics, we’re talking about a player who got more hits than anyone who ever lived! And if that doesn’t get a guy into the Best of the Best wing, it’s time to find a new name for that wing. Fun question!
How much do voters take international achievements and stats into account? Of course, Ichiro would have been a Hall of Famer just based on his MLB numbers alone, but I think it’s because of his 1,278 hits in Japan that we have elevated him to potentially unanimous territory. If Yoshinobu Yamamoto has Mark Buehrle’s exact career, would his time in NPB be enough to put him in? Is it fair to only account for NPB stats but not other leagues like KBO? — David P.
David, I know I just wrote two paragraphs ago that I’d take Ichiro’s Japanese feats into account if I were deciding who gets into the “Best of the Best” wing. But ignore that! That’s just the tiebreaker in deciding admission to a wing that doesn’t even exist in real life.
You know what does exist in real life? The actual Hall of Fame plaque gallery. And we are definitively not supposed to use international stats in that voting.
We’re instructed to vote on a player’s career in the “major leagues” — which does not include the NPB, KBO or any other international leagues. So Yamamoto’s Hall of Fame meter started ticking in 2024, not on the other side of the Pacific. Thanks for the excellent question.
GO DEEPER
Untold stories of Ichiro: Wrestling with Griffey, All-Star speeches and ‘Ichi wings’
How big of a role does strategic voting have in preventing unanimous selections? How anyone could leave Ichiro off their ballot is beyond me, but I do admit that I appreciate a voter throwing their hat into the ring for, say, Billy Wagner in the hopes of keeping him on the ballot. — Carl M.
All right, let’s do one more quick Ichiro question because it’s not just Hall of Fame season. It’s Ichiro season!
Your question is right on point because ballot management is a thing these days for a lot of voters. A few years ago, the Baseball Writers’ Association of America asked the Hall of Fame to let us vote for more than 10 players on the ballot. The Hall said: Sorry! So here we are.
That means that in a year like this one, with such a deep ballot, it’s going to be tempting for some voters to say: I know Ichiro is getting in, so I’d better vote for Félix Hernández to make sure he isn’t one and done.
It stinks that we have to think that way and vote that way. But I’m convinced that’s why Derek Jeter and Ken Griffey Jr. weren’t unanimous. So would it shock me if it happens again to Ichiro? Ha. How could it?
How can you justify voting for Billy Wagner with dozens (if not hundreds) of pitchers left out of Cooperstown who inarguably contributed more to their teams than Wagner? Personally, I think it’s a joke that Wagner is considered a viable candidate when someone like Bret Saberhagen is thought of as a non-candidate — and for that matter, that Jack Morris was regarded as borderline before he was inducted. Note: I wouldn’t vote for Andy Pettitte either, but you could fit four of Wagner’s careers into one of Pettitte’s. — Pep V.
Pep, my friend, I hate to break this to you, but “relief pitcher” is a real position. In fact, you might have noticed that relief pitchers are beginning to take over the Baseball Earth, while starting pitchers try to avoid extinction.
I’m not trying to go all Jurassic Park on you. I’m just making a point. I’m not a fan of the decline of starting pitching. If I were the king of baseball, I’d do everything I could to fight that. But here in the real world, our mission is to look at the world that exists — not the world we wished would exist.
And since “closer” was a real job for all 16 seasons that Wagner pitched in the big leagues, I think my assignment as a voter is to assess where he ranked among the closers of his time — and of all time.
As I’ve written for a decade, he was such a dominator within the definition of that job, he owns the best ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate of any left-handed reliever ever. So why do I vote for him? That’s why. As my friend Brian Kenny from MLB Network always says, we’re not talking about a guy who was the eighth-best or 12th-best. He was THE best.
So to dismiss Wagner because he pitched fewer innings than Pettitte isn’t fair, just as it wouldn’t be fair to Pettitte to say: I’m not voting for that guy because he didn’t have rate stats as good as Billy Wagner’s. I hope that makes sense. That’s how I look at it anyway. I know not everyone does — and that’s why we vote on this stuff!
Wagner’s postseason numbers have been used against him for Hall consideration. Please restate your position on how misleading these numbers are for your fellow voters. — Richard T.
Thanks, Richard. Look, it’s hard to argue that any voter should just ignore Wagner’s 10.03 postseason ERA. All I’ve tried to do is go game by game and see what that tells us. What it told me is that his teams had a shockingly hard time getting him the ball with the lead at the end of these games.
This guy only had four postseason save opportunities in 16 seasons. Four. And he blew only one of them — the first one. So as much as we want to compare him to Mariano Rivera, Mariano got 47 of those postseason save opportunities.
Here’s the other stunning thing I found: In a decade and a half in the big leagues, Wagner faced only 30 hitters with a lead in the postseason. Again, is it fair to compare him to Mariano — who faced over 400?
When I vote, I prefer large samples over small samples. So if you believe the postseason is the reason not to vote for this man — as opposed to 900 innings of regular-season domination — that’s too small a sample to disqualify him, at least for me.
I understand that for closers, October is never irrelevant. But where does that fit in the big balancing act we do with almost every candidate? All I can do is explain where it fits for me.
GO DEEPER
How a broken arm — and an unbroken spirit — took Billy Wagner to the doorstep of the Hall
CC (Sabathia) was a good pitcher but is a compiler at best. He has 62 WAR, which averages to a 3.3 WAR (per season). – Andrew W.
Andrew, I appreciate your perspective. I just could not disagree with it more.
CC pitched for a long time (19 seasons). That’s not the same thing as being “a compiler.”
I think a “compiler” is a guy who strings together a bunch of league-average seasons, one after another, but never rises above that level. Someone like Edwin Jackson (with all due respect to his long career) — he’s a compiler. Sabathia is almost the opposite of that.
A guy who owns a Cy Young Award and five top-five finishes is not a compiler. … A guy who led his league in shutouts four times is not a compiler. … A guy who got traded in midseason, as Sabathia did in 2008 to Milwaukee, and said, “Jump on my back. I’ll make five straight starts on short rest to save our season” — that’s not a compiler. … A guy who got signed to a huge contract with New York in 2009, then had a sub-2.00 postseason ERA (over five starts) as his team went on to win the World Series — that’s not a compiler.
Obviously, in the last five years of his career, he wasn’t That Guy anymore. But don’t let those back-end years obscure the great years. And don’t just look at the WAR column when you’re evaluating him – or anyone on this ballot. Look at literally everything. When you do that with CC, you see so much more than “compiling.”
It’s obviously not going to happen this year, but will (Dustin) Pedroia ever make it into the Hall? It’s such a shame his career ended the way it did right in the middle of his peak years. Is he a Koufax candidate? Short but massively impactful career. — James S.
James, I was hoping someone would ask me about Pedroia — one of the most fun, most watchable and most charismatic players of the 21st century. He’s a tricky Hall case. So I think we’ll be talking a lot about him over these next couple of months.
We’ll never know how his career would have unfolded if that Manny Machado slide hadn’t happened in 2017. But we do know Pedroia was on a Hall of Fame track when it did. It’s never easy to decide what we should do, as voters, with players like him.
I thought David Wright was a very similar player when he arrived on last year’s ballot, so I made sure to vote for him just to help him make it to Year 2. I could see myself doing the same with Pedroia, because he’s comparable not only to Wright but also to Chase Utley, another force of nature at second base whose career totals were stifled by injuries.
| Pedroia | Utley | |
|---|---|---|
|
Hits |
1,805 |
1,885 |
|
OPS+ |
113 |
117 |
|
HOF Meter |
94 |
94 |
|
5.0-WAR seasons |
6 |
6 |
Utley got 28 percent of the vote last year, so I think that offers hope for the Pedroia fans. And as I wrote in my Five Things to Watch on the Hall of Fame ballot column, I have a feeling Utley will get elected someday.
That’s because I see our philosophy as voters evolving over the next few years — away from the counting numbers of yesteryear and toward players with dominant peaks, whose impact on winning was undeniable. And doesn’t that describe Dustin Pedroia?
During the 10 seasons from 2007-16, he ranked fifth in the entire sport in WAR — behind only Robinson Canó, Adrian Beltré, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera — and won an MVP, Rookie of the Year and two World Series along the way.
I’m really curious to see what his vote total looks like as he goes through the next decade. But first, we have to make sure he gets enough votes to stay on the ballot this year!
Chase Utley’s first-year vote total offers hope for Dustin Pedroia fans. (Charles Krupa / Associated Press)
Please explain the differentiation between Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds. (And for that matter Dale Murphy, Kenny Lofton, etc.) Jones and Edmunds had nearly identical WAR, home runs, All-Star (appearances), etc. Both were elite Gold Glove center fielders. Jones had slightly more RBIs and Gold Gloves; Edmonds had more hits and a better batting average, slugging percentage, OPS and OPS+ plus a World Series title. Jones keeps getting votes/consideration, but Edmonds was one-and-done. In my opinion, they’re either both HOFers or neither. — Jordan H.
Jordan, you’re firing that question at a guy who didn’t vote for Andruw Jones for six elections in a row — for that very reason. I’ve brought up the Jones versus Edmonds comps so many times, but this is the perfect occasion to do it again.
I’ve been open about what always stopped me from voting for Jones – that he drove his career over a cliff at age 30 and was such a non-presence, he was worth a total of 1.7 WAR from ages 31-35. So how could people justify comparing him to Willie Mays, which still happens all the time.
The player we should be comparing him with is Edmonds, who played in the same era, but was still collecting Gold Gloves at 35. Edmonds won eight Gold Gloves, had a career 132 OPS+ and didn’t even make it to a second year on the ballot. Jones won 10 Gold Gloves, but also had a 111 OPS+ and wasn’t even a league-average defender in his 30s.
There is also this:
Seasons with a Gold Glove and 120 OPS+ or higher
Jim Edmonds — 8
Andruw Jones — 4
I’m still embarrassed that Edmonds (and Lofton) fell off the ballot so fast. In Edmonds’ case, he got crushed by an overloaded 2016 ballot that included 11 future Hall of Famers, plus Billy Wagner — not to mention Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Sheffield, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Jeff Kent.
But whatever the reason, it took me all the way until the 2024 election to finally vote for Andruw Jones. In large part, that was because Edmonds’ shadow hung over my evaluation. And you know what? It still does. If Jones makes the Hall, I’m good with it. But if he does, let’s just say I sure hope the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee is paying attention.
And speaking of those Era committees …
Dick Allen has another chance on (the Classic Baseball Era ballot). Is the third time the charm? — Kevin M.
Believe it or not, Kevin, this is actually Allen’s seventh time on one of these Era Committee/Veterans Committee ballots. The first was over two decades ago. But I know you’re referring to the last two, when he missed by only one vote — 10 years ago and three years ago.
I’ve served on these committees, and I appreciate their value. But I also know how they work. So I highly recommend not trying to predict how they’ll vote. That’s especially true with this committee, which will meet in a couple of weeks — since right now, we still don’t even know the 16 members who will be voting.
OK, now that I have that preamble out of the way, if I were on this committee, I’d vote for Dick Allen. And his combination of credentials and narrative seems as if it would make him the kind of candidate most likely to show up on 12 of the 16 ballots.
For one thing, he’s already gotten 11 votes twice. And everyone who got more votes in those two elections now has a plaque in the gallery. That seems helpful.
But you know what’s even more helpful? Allen has a Hall of Fame case that feels more aligned with these times than those times.
Over his 11-year peak, from 1964-74, he led the entire sport in OPS+ (165), with a parade of legends and Hall of Famers behind him. He was second in slugging (.554) in that glorious era, behind only Henry Aaron (.561). And Allen and Aaron were the only two players in baseball with at least 300 homers and 100 stolen bases over those years.
Add in an MVP, a Rookie of the Year award and two home run titles — and it gives the committee a reason to downplay Allen’s lack of counting numbers (1,848 hits, 351 career homers) and the controversies that hung over him during the turbulent times in which he played. It was those counting numbers and controversies that kept him from gaining any real traction on the writers’ ballot. But that was then. This is the 2000s.
This committee also will be well aware of how close he came in the previous two elections — and that, sadly, he didn’t live to see the Induction Day that now feels inevitable. So it feels as if his stars are finally aligned.
But have I mentioned that predicting these committees is a really bad idea? That was true two decades ago — and it’s one thing about modern Hall of Fame voting that hasn’t changed.
GO DEEPER
Dick Allen’s numbers haven’t changed, but how we view them should: Jayson Stark
GO DEEPER
Five things to watch on the 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
GO DEEPER
A salute to Ichiro, CC Sabathia and the other 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot
GO DEEPER
Baseball Hall of Fame tiers: Which active players are on course for Cooperstown?
(Photo of Ichiro Suzuki in March 2024: Aaron Doster / Getty Images)
