NFL Week 12 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Mike Evans, Isiah Pacheco near returns

Welcome to the Week 12 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings (PPR) referenced in this article are current as of Nov. 21 at 11 a.m. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

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Last updated: 9:45 a.m. ET, Nov. 21

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Injury news

Updated through 9:45 a.m. ET, Nov. 21

Sunday 1 p.m.

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings (foot) — Questionable
Darnold was limited in Wednesday’s practice due to a foot injury. There’s no reason to worry at this point, but Nick Mullens is Darnold’s backup. Mullens has a career regular-season completion percentage of 65.8 percent and has averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game.

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (ankle) — Questionable / Injured reserve
Pacheco is expected to return from injured reserve ahead of the Chiefs’ matchup with the Panthers on Sunday. Obviously, Pacheco’s return means the end of (fantasy) days for Kareem Hunt, who has led Kansas City’s backfield in Pacheco’s absence.

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (hamstring) — Questionable
Evans returned to practice this week and will return in Week 12, according to The Athletic’s league sources. Finally, Tampa Bay has a fantasy starter in its wide receiver corps again. With Chris Godwin on injured reserve, Evans is only competing with TE Cade Otton to be QB Baker Mayfield’s top target.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (wrist) — Questionable
Hill is once again questionable with a wrist injury that will likely ail him for the rest of the season. If he doesn’t play, WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Jonnu Smith will likely lead the team in targets. Smith had 101 receiving yards on six receptions in Week 11 and finished with 28.1 PPR points.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears (groin) — Questionable
Swift didn’t practice Wednesday due to a groin injury and is questionable for Week 12. If he sits, Roschon Johnson becomes an intriguing fantasy play after getting 10 carries to Swift’s 14 in Week 11.

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers (knee) — Expected to play
Panthers head coach Dave Canales said he “fully expects” Brooks to play in the Chiefs-Panthers matchup, according to Mike Kaye of The Charlotte Observer. For fantasy purposes, it will be important to monitor how many carries Brooks gets compared to Chuba Hubbard, who has been one of the few bright spots for Carolina this season. Hubbard has accumulated 942 yards from scrimmage and has been running efficiently with 5.1 yards per carry.

Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers (hamstring) — Questionable
Thielen said he felt good about his early-week workout but still has to “gain some ground to feel really good about playing on Sunday,” according to Panthers’ reporter Kassidy Hill. If Thielen returns, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker will lose targets on a team that doesn’t have many to go around. QB Bryce Young completed only 15 passes in Week 10 and only 16 in Week 9.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys (knee) — Injured reserve
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (back/foot) — Questionable
With Cooper Rush under center, Cooks’ injury status is much less important to fantasy managers, but nonetheless, he was designated for return from injured reserve on Wednesday. Head coach Mike McCarthy said Cooks is getting close, according to The Athletic’s Saad Yousuf. Cooks will compete with Jalen Tolbert and maybe even new-addition Jonathan Mingo for targets, while CeeDee Lamb remains the only receiver to trust on a weekly basis with Dallas playing so poorly.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (concussion) — Questionable
McCarthy said Ferguson “will be hard pressed” to play in Week 12, according to Calvin Watkins of The Dallas Morning News. Backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker had six receptions on 10 targets and 56 receiving yards in Week 11. If you’re desperate for a tight end with so many teams on bye this week, consider Schoonmaker and hope Rush goes 32-for-55 as he did in Week 11, rather than 13-for-23, as in Week 10.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (concussion) — Questionable
Spears was not seen at practice, according to Turron Davenport of ESPN. While Tony Pollard stands to see a slight uptick in usage with Spears out, Tennessee’s leading rusher had only 44 rushing yards in Week 10 and 15 in Week 11.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans (illness) — Questionable
Ridley did not practice Wednesday due to illness. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Tyler Boyd would see increased usage with Ridley out. NWI had a massive Week 11 with 117 receiving yards and a touchdown. But that came from only two receptions, which makes him a boom-or-bust option. Still, Westbrook-Ikhine has scored over 10 PPR points in three of the past four weeks. Ridley is the only dependable wide receiver in Tennessee with the Titans’ limited offensive production.

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants (concussion) — Questionable
Theo Johnson, TE, Giants (back) — Questionable
Slayton practiced in full on Wednesday while Johnson was limited. Slayton hasn’t played since Week 9 but averaged 9.56 PPR points before then. Daniel Jones was benched for Tommy DeVito, but targets will likely be similarly dispersed. Malik Nabers is, by far, the most targeted Giants’ receiver at 11.75 targets per game, followed by Wan’Dale Robinson with 8.4, Slayton with 5.56, and TE Johnson with 4.0. Chris Manhertz backs up Johnson but shouldn’t be added anywhere, especially with the QB change.

Austin Seibert, K, Commanders (hip) — Questionable
Seibert was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice and is questionable for Week 12. Zane Gonzalez filled in for Seibert in Week 11 and made all three of his field goal attempts and was perfect on extra points.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Zamir White, RB, Raiders (quadriceps) — Questionable
Alexander Mattison, RB, Raiders (ankle) — Questionable
Neither Mattison nor White practiced Wednesday. Each of them had five carries, and while Mattison had more yards (19) than White (9), the numbers don’t bode well for future fantasy production for either of these backs. How many ways are there to say the Raiders are just plain bad?

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers (appendicitis) — Out
Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers (quadriceps) — Questionable
Lloyd was reinstated from injured reserve but was placed on the non-football illness list Wednesday. Jacobs has been leading Green Bay’s backfield to the tune of 4.8 yards per carry, 838 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards this season. Even if Lloyd returns in 2024, his usage is difficult to predict given Jacobs’ success. If Jacobs cannot play in Week 12, Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks will likely share carries.

George Kittle, TE, 49ers (hamstring) — Questionable
Kittle told reporters, “I will playing on Sunday, very excited, can’t pass up playing the Packers.” Kittle’s absence was felt in Week 11, and with the 49ers battling for a playoff bid, the situation seems right for Kittle’s return.

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (shoulder) — Questionable
Many players are on the injury report early in the week only to drop off as the week progresses. Purdy is likely one of those players, but he was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Purdy’s backup is Brandon Allen who has a career completion percentage of only 56.7 percent and hasn’t started and played a full game since 2021.

Noah Fant, TE, Seahawks (groin) — Questionable
Fant hasn’t played since Week 8 and is questionable again heading into Week 12. Rookie AJ Barner started in Fant’s absence in Weeks 9 and 11 but totaled only 42 receiving yards on six receptions and 11 targets.

Sunday night

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (ankle) — Questionable
Hurts was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice which has led to his injury report appearance, but he said he’s “fine,” according to The Philadelphia Inquirer.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (hamstring) — Questionable
Smith did not participate in Wednesday’s practice and has struggled the past two weeks with only 10.3 PPR points in the two games combined, to go with a total of nine targets and six receptions. Outside of Smith and A.J. Brown, there are no other Philly receivers to roster, even if Smith sits. Jahan Dotson has averaged only 2.09 PPR points per game on an average of 1.7 targets.

According to Rotowire, the Steelers–Browns Thursday night matchup comes with an expected temperature of 36 degrees and a 75 percent chance of rain.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (2-8)

Since 2015, Jameis Winston has played in six regular-season rain games, and his completion percentage for those contests is a dismal 53.2 percent, compared to a career regular-season total of 61.8 percent. In those games, he’s also thrown 12 interceptions to only seven touchdowns (0.6 TD/interception ratio), which likely comes as no surprise for those who know Winston. He takes risks — a lot of them — when throwing the football. But without rain, his touchdown TD/interception ratio is a much more digestible 1.6.

While moving toward a run-heavy gameplan in the rain is sensible, the Browns’ running game has been ineffective this season. Cleveland averages only 88.5 rushing yards per game (ranked 29th in the NFL) and has a rush EPA of -2.92 (22nd), and the Steelers rank fourth in rushing yards allowed per game. The Browns may find it hard to plan for this rainy-day game.

Russell Wilson has 20 rain games under his belt and a much higher completion percentage of 61.5 percent. In those games, he’s tossed 37 TDs to only 13 interceptions, which gives him the edge on Winston in the rain. The Steelers backfield, relying on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, averages 136.7 rushing yards per game (8th), but Pittsburgh’s rush EPA ranks 29th in the league. In order to keep Cleveland’s defense honest, Wilson needs to throw because the backs aren’t creating scoring opportunities with an EPA of -4.48. George Pickens remains a safe fantasy play, given his 29 percent target share and Wilson’s numbers in the rain.

Wondering what the weather impact is on fantasy production? Jake Ciely has you covered like a poncho in rainy season.

• Venue: Huntington Bank Field — Cleveland
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Steelers are favored by a little more than a field goal over the Browns in Week 12, and the matchup has an over/under of only 36.5, the lowest total of the week. Pittsburgh’s offense sputtered in Week 11 as Russell Wilson was sacked four times, threw an interception, and had only 205 yards passing. Najee Harris had 18 carries to Jaylen Warren’s nine, and they were each targeted four times, but Warren finished with 4.6 yards per rush compared to Harris’ 3.5. Meanwhile, kicker Chris Boswell led the Steelers in fantasy points with 24.

The Browns’ Jameis Winston and Jerry Jeudy have shown some nice chemistry. Jeudy earned 11 targets each of the past two games and finished with 142 yards receiving against New Orleans in Week 11. The Steelers’ defense is better than the Saints’, but Pittsburgh is prone to giving up yards through the air and is ranked 20th in quarterback sack rate. Jeudy could be an intriguing flex option.

Read the full preview. 

Sunday afternoon

San Francisco 49ers (5-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Green Bay Packers are slight home favorites in their Week 12 contest against the San Francisco 49ers. Coming off a 1-point win against the Bears — secured in the final seconds by a blocked field goal — the Packers weren’t exactly dominant against a struggling Chicago team last week. The Niners are coming off a 20-17 loss to Seattle (who had lost five of their previous six games) and are in a very tight NFC West race that has the 6-4 Cardinals on top.

Jordan Love and Brock Purdy have become franchise quarterbacks over the past two seasons. However, Love ranks 30th in completion percentage this season, one spot below recently benched Daniel Jones, while Purdy ranks 20th. Although both QBs rank inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game, they fall outside the top 10 in passer rating. Luckily for Love and Purdy, each team has a receiver ranked in the top five in passer rating when targeted (minimum of 35 touches). Jayden Reed tops the list at 146.0, while Jauan Jennings ranks fifth at 127.7. Jennings has been a great complement to Deebo Samuel in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk (injured reserve), rising to WR2 status.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (5-5)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Philadelphia Eagles are favored on the road against the Los Angeles Rams in this NFC matchup. The Rams are coming off a narrow 28-22 victory against New England. After a disappointing 9.7 fantasy point performance in Week 10, Matthew Stafford bounced back with 295 passing yards and four TDs against the Patriots. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua each had over 100 yards receiving and scored (Kupp had two TDs; Nacua had one).

Led by QB Jalen Hurts, the Eagles boast two talented receivers of their own, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But Philadelphia has Saquon Barkley, and the Rams do not, and at 273.1 yards allowed per game, the Eagles defense is a force. In contrast, the Rams D sits at 23rd, allowing 350.6 yards per game. Week 12 presents the perfect opportunity for Smith to return to fantasy relevance after Weeks 10 and 11, when he scored 3.4 and 6.9 PPR points, respectively.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday). 

Monday night

Baltimore Ravens (7-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Coming off a tough Week 11 loss to the Steelers, the Ravens are favored by less than a field goal on the road against the Chargers in this AFC matchup that has head coaches Jim and John Harbaugh meeting for the first time since Super Bowl XLVII. The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers have been rolling lately. Justin Herbert is throwing more and ranks sixth in passer rating (102.1), J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are handling backfield work, and Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston lead the Chargers’ wide receivers in targets, receiving yards and yards after the catch.

Lamar Jackson has had an MVP season for Baltimore (excluding last week’s poor performance), but Derrick Henry has taken a step back lately with under 80 net yards in three of his last four games. Zay Flowers continues to impress (though somewhat inconsistently), while Diontae Johnson has become a fantasy drop, averaging two targets and 0.5 receptions per game. The Chargers defense is tough, and Tuli Tuipulotu has led the NFL over the past three weeks with six sacks, but Jackson has the third-most time to throw in the league. This Harbaugh brothers’ matchup is full of talent and intrigue.

Read the full preview (coming Monday).

Statistics in this section come from TruMedia. 

Week 12 best bets

Austin Mock scours his weekly projections to spot the top values on the board.

Bet picked Thursday: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-115) at Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams and this Bears offense looked a lot better last week after making a change at offensive coordinator. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings’ defense is much better than the Packers’ and defensive coordinator Brian Flores getting to face a rookie quarterback is quite the bad matchup. I do have concerns about this Vikings offense since the loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw, but they should have enough to complement their dominant defense.

Question from Melissa: “Six people left. What’s the best plan for the next two weeks: Kansas City (at Carolina), then Minnesota (vs. Arizona); Miami (vs. New England), then Kansas City (vs. Las Vegas); Houston (vs. Tennessee), then Kansas City (vs. Las Vegas)? Most others left in the pool have already used Kansas City and Miami, if that matters.”

Get Ciely’s full Week 12 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.