On Monday, I answered your questions about the trade market. In the second installment of our subscriber mailbag, I’ll focus on free-agent questions.
Early on, the Angels were the most active team in free agency, with commitments of more than $90 million, highlighted by the signings of lefty Yusei Kikuchi and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. But the landscape changed late Tuesday, when the Dodgers landed Blake Snell with a five year, $182 million deal.
In signing Snell, the Dodgers strengthened their standing as the early favorites to win the 2025 World Series. He gives Los Angeles the best rotation in the National League — and they’ll arguably be even better than Seattle’s rotation, especially if Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow are healthy and pitch at their accustomed levels.
Snell’s contract does come with some risk, as the Dodgers have paid a top-of-the-market salary for a starter who has pitched more than 130 innings only twice in his nine-year career, though both of those seasons he did win the Cy Young Award. But the Dodgers don’t care as much about bulk innings; they’re OK with five-inning starters and six-man rotations, preferring to save their starting pitchers’ innings for October.
And the Dodgers aren’t done yet. They have the financial resources to build a dynasty — and they’re going for it.
OK, now let’s answer your free-agent questions along with a handful of trade ones, based on my views and what I’m hearing from front-office executives and agents.
If you’re the Yankees, who need to fill a number of holes to have a realistic chance to get back to the World Series, is it possible to speed up the process of signing Juan Soto to ensure you’re positioned to fill those holes if you don’t re-sign him? — Gregory C.
The Yankees can’t speed up the process. Only Soto and his agency, the Boras Corporation, can determine when they have the best offers on the table. Only Soto can decide where he wants to spend the rest of his career. So, while the Yankees have been trying to lure him back, they’ve made sure to let their Plan B, C and D players know their interest if they can’t land Soto. For example, if Soto decides to sign elsewhere, the Yankees will be ready to pivot to hitters like Anthony Santander, Willy Adames and/or Christian Walker and pursue a top starter such as Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. Although Soto is their priority, they are prepared to pivot if needed.
Yankees Plan B (if they don’t land Soto): sign Jurickson Profar and Austin Hays for a left-field platoon; Jasson Domínguez in center; Aaron Judge in right; sign Adames for third base, move Jazz Chisholm Jr. to second base; sign Carlos Santana for one year, paving the way for to get Munetaka Murakami (after the 2025 season); sign Walker Buehler (no qualifying offer) as a bounce-back candidate working with pitching coach Matt Blake; sign Tim Hill, maybe Tommy Kahnle and reclamation-project relievers — Jjlippman
I think that’s a solid Plan C. But I would prefer my Plan B of signing Santander, Adames and Buehler.
If you’re the Mets, how do you pivot (if you) go 0-2 in the Soto/Alonso sweepstakes? — Chris T.
The Mets’ pivot that makes sense to me in that scenario would be to land two starting pitchers out of the group of Burnes, Fried, Buehler and Sean Manaea, then either sign Walker to play first base or Adames to play third and move Mark Vientos to first. They have lots of options to pivot off Soto.
Corbin Burnes is considered the top free-agent starting pitcher. (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
What does a realistic offseason look like for the Red Sox? I don’t feel like Juan Soto is a realistic possibility. (I hope I’m wrong.) Is it (landing a top starting pitcher), Teoscar Hernández and a reliever? More or less? — Matthew N.
The Red Sox have been all-in this offseason, kicking the tires on almost every high-end free agent. They seem more committed to the starting pitching side of the market and are playing on Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Roki Sasaki — and I won’t be surprised if they land two of them. I also see them adding a bat, with Hernández or Santander more likely than Soto. I think the organization is ready to be decisive and more aggressive in the offseason again. Their farm system is stocked with players who are ready to be promoted or used as trade chips. The Red Sox are the most intriguing team to watch this winter.
GO DEEPER
Ranking Juan Soto’s free-agent suitors: Which team will sign him? And for how much?
Could you see a world where Soto plays primarily DH if he lands somewhere with an already strong defensive outfield trio? — Sean
No. That’s not happening. Soto wants to play every day in the outfield and he’s not going to sign anywhere as a full-time DH, according to his representatives. However, if and when he signs a 10- to 15-year contract, I certainly expect he’ll be DHing by the back end of the deal, but probably not until his mid- to late-30s.
Other than signing Burnes, what other starters are the Mets likely to (pursue)? — Andrew G.
The list is long: Fried, Buehler, Roki Sasaki, Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Tomoyuki Sugano, Shane Bieber and Matthew Boyd plus they could bring back Manaea and/or Luis Severino too.
How realistic is it for the Braves to pursue Adames as an upgrade at shortstop over Orlando Arcia? — Justin F.
I think the Braves are more focused on the top of their rotation, looking to bring back Fried and Charlie Morton or replace them with the like. However, I do see a great fit with Adames at shortstop and they could move Arcia to left field to share the position with Jarred Kelenic and others. Adames’ high energy and enthusiasm would fit in any clubhouse including Atlanta’s, and what Braves fan wouldn’t love to see an infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Adames and Austin Riley for the next few years? Wow.
What’s your sense of why (Braves president of baseball operations) Alex Anthopoulos is “squirreling away every budget dollar” in Atlanta? Major pitching move or a splash (signing of) everyday position player? — Martin C.
I think Anthopoulos is looking to make a major pitching move or two, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll pivot to Adames. But his top priority is starting pitching.
GO DEEPER
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Prediction time: Which free-agent signing will be the most surprising? — Brian t.
Sasaki — because everyone seems to think he will sign with the Dodgers. When he doesn’t, many are going to be surprised.
If you are the Mariners, would you try to sign Sasaki? If successful, then would you trade from your starting five to land a significant young hitter? — Andy s.
For all 30 teams, I would do everything in my power to land Sasaki. He’s going to be the most affordable top free agent to sign this offseason — by far — because of the limits on international pool budgets. And, yes, if the Mariners managed to land him, I would trade a starting pitcher for hitters, preferably young bats who aren’t eligible for arbitration, to extend the team’s window for winning championships.
Setting aside the Sasaki situation, the Mariners must improve their offense after it led the majors in strikeouts last season. They had the best rotation in baseball and still failed to make the playoffs, which is brutal. Signing either Walker or Pete Alonso for first base or Alex Bregman or Adames for third base would make a lot of sense.
GO DEEPER
Why Roki Sasaki, the top prospect with ace upside, isn’t necessarily destined for Dodgers
Do front offices consider how signing a free agent not only can help their team but also weaken a division rival? Say the Mets sign Fried away from the Braves or the Mariners sign Bregman away from the Astros. (Imagine if the Mets had re-signed Zack Wheeler and didn’t let him go to the Phillies.) — George Y.
Front offices consider everything. However, the real answer to your question is not really. Front offices are focused on improving their own teams and assembling the best possible pool of players because they can’t control what other teams are going to do. And, in your example, if the Mets were to sign Fried, removing him as an option for the Braves, Atlanta could pivot and sign Burnes to replace him. So it really doesn’t work that way.
Will Alex Bregman be back with the Astros? (Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
The Tigers need some right-handed thump. Will Bregman really be available to them? — Kevin S.
I believe Bregman wants to return to the Astros if they’ll step up and match his free-agent market value. If he were to leave Houston, the two spots that make the most sense to me are Boston and Philadelphia because of the dimensions of their home ballparks. I don’t like Bregman’s fit with the Tigers because of the large confines of Comerica Park, but I’d sure like his fit in their clubhouse because he’s a two-time World Series winner with strong makeup.
I would really like to see Kansas City pursue Bregman. I think his bat would fit nicely in the lineup and he is a solid defender — all things the Royals value. Have you heard anything about this, or are they willing to pursue trades to upgrade (third base)? — Michael G.
The Royals are not “in” on Bregman. Their trade for Jonathan India solved their leadoff and infield need. They will not make an offer for Bregman, according to team sources.
You’ve just woken up “Heaven Can Wait”-style as Royals owner John Sherman. Who are you going after as the Robin to Bobby Witt Jr.’s Batman? — Chris S.
Santander. Add his 40-homer bat to the middle of the lineup, then put on your seat belts, Kansas City. He could be Robin to Witt’s Batman.
Who will sign Ha-Seong Kim and Paul Goldschmidt? — Gary D.
I think Kim ends up with San Francisco or Atlanta or, most likely, re-signing with San Diego. In terms of Goldschmidt, I’m not sure. It might depend on which teams lose out on Alonso and Walker in free agency and whether Goldschmidt is willing to accept a part-time, platoon-type role. Age and decline have caught up with him. But he could be a solid fit with the Mariners, Giants or Yankees in a platoon role, depending on how successful those teams are in improving at first base this winter.
I’ll ask the annual question on behalf of beleaguered “small-market” fans: Are there any penny-pinching (teams) who might start spending in free agency this offseason? — Daniel K.
The Nationals have been penny-pinching for the last several years and I think they’ll start spending this offseason or at least try to. I also believe the Pirates might surprise us by landing a solid free-agent bat.
How does the Twins franchise being for sale impact the thoughts of a potential free agent signing with the team? — Karl T.
I’ve been told not to expect a significant increase in payroll or any big free-agent signings from the Twins this offseason. Instead, they are looking for a right-handed-hitting complement for one or both of their outfield corners and, like everyone, would like to add pitching depth to both the rotation and bullpen. (The Athletic’s Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman have reported the club’s payroll is expected to remain in the $130 million range, and with little spending flexibility due to current commitments, the team is more likely to pursue trades.)
Can you match the Guardians with a free-agent position player? … I understand they typically shop in the bargain-bin aisle, but humor me here and give me a name or names to keep an eye on in free agency. — Andy J.
I wish I could give you Teoscar Hernández or Anthony Santander, but I don’t see either of those happening. If I put on a blindfold, spin around a few times and throw a dart … how about Tyler O’Neill? Remember, even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
The Athletics need pitching. Who are some realistic targets in free agency who (would be willing to play in Sacramento)? — Benjamin S.
The Athletics are looking to improve their team by trading from their farm system more than through free agency. They’re going to have difficulty recruiting free agents to play half their games in a Triple A stadium for the next several years before the team’s planned move to Las Vegas. Their best bet is to wait until January, when the free-agent class will have thinned, and try to sign undervalued free agents who could potentially be moved at the trade deadline for more prospects.
What are your thoughts on what the Dodgers could get for Gavin Lux in a trade? With Mookie Betts moving to the infield, it seems like second base is filled. — Ali A.
I’d like to see the Dodgers sign Adames to play shortstop, play Betts at second base, and trade Lux. However, I don’t think Lux has a lot of trade value. He’d likely return a back-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-innings reliever type.
Trade proposal: Phillies send Mick Abel, Justin Crawford, and Taijuan Walker to St. Louis for Ryan Helsley and Nolan Arenado. Who says no? — Tom R.
I think the Cardinals say no. They don’t want Walker, who logged a 7.10 ERA last season. Abel, 23, has command and control question marks — he averaged 6.5 walks per nine innings this year at Triple A — and they already have a Crawford-type center-field prospect in Victor Scott II. But from the Phillies’ perspective, I love your idea as long as the Cardinals pay down Arenado’s contract. (He’s owed $73 million over the next three years, $10 million of which will be paid by Colorado; Walker is owed $36 million over the next two years.)
The Cubs supposedly want to improve their offense, but the most obvious pieces they can move (Cody Bellinger and Nico Hoerner) don’t look like they will entice many teams this offseason, due to Bellinger’s contract and Hoerner’s injury. (He had flexor tendon surgery on his right forearm in October.) Aside from moving one or both of those two, are there any moves you think make sense for a Cubs team looking for a bat?
I’d like to see them try to land Santander in free agency. He’d be a game-changer in the middle of their lineup.
Anthony Santander had 44 homers and a 134 OPS+ last season. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
Will any NL Central team make significant signings (players who get $20 million or more annually)? — Les J.
Pirates: no. Reds: no. Cardinals: no. Brewers: no. Cubs: maybe?
My Orioles need pitching and the Mariners need hitting. The O’s are also overloaded with infielders, especially after re-signing corner infielder Emmanuel Rivera for next season, but they need two starting pitchers. So how about the Orioles trade first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, a top 20 infield prospect (from their organization) and a top 20 outfield prospect to Seattle for either Luis Castillo or Logan Gilbert plus a top 20 starting pitcher prospect? — No name given
If I’m the Mariners, I’ll offer you Castillo for Coby Mayo and Mountcastle. As an Orioles fan, would you make that swap? Then Baltimore could sign either Sasaki or Fried in free agency.
How about the Angels offer Taylor Ward to the Mets for Brett Baty and a prospect? Ward would give the Mets stability in left field for two years before he hits free agency, and Baty lost out to Vientos (at third base). He’d become the Angels’ third baseman most nights with Anthony Rendon likely on the bench or the injured list. — Mike B.
I’m not sure Baty is going to hit enough in the big leagues. Ward is a 25-home run bat who was worth 2.3 bWAR last season, and the Angels are trying to make moves to contend next year. I don’t think this deal works for the Angels, but I’d do it if I were the Mets.
GO DEEPER
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(Top photo of Juan Soto: Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
