The prevailing thought around the NHL tends to be that if something seems broken, a coaching change may be in order.
That may sound dramatic because coaches can only control so much — general managers have to shoulder the burden of a team underperforming, as do the 20 players dressed on a nightly basis.
But coaching changes happen so often in the NHL. It only took a quarter of the 2024-25 season for the first in-year firing after eight changes in the offseason.
A coach doesn’t have to be bad or even at fault to be fired in some cases. Sometimes, it’s a last-ditch effort by a general manager to mask their roster-building issues. In some cases, a coach just isn’t a fit for a team stylistically anymore. In other situations, voices grow stale in the locker room, or they no longer have new ideas with the same group — take Paul Maurice in Winnipeg. Someone may be the right fit at the time of their hiring, but a team’s needs can change as the years go on; that will be the case if Mike Sullivan ultimately gets fired by the Penguins.
Of course, there are times when the onus falls on the coach. The Kraken dismissed Dave Hakstol and Paul McFarland because the team underwhelmed offensively last year. The Sabres got stagnant under Don Granto and the Sharks disappointed with David Quinn behind the bench, even with their roster flaws in mind.
In rare cases, a team makes a change because a better option becomes available. That was the case just over a week ago when the Blues fired Drew Bannister and hired Jim Montgomery.
With coaching turnover trending up, seats get hotter a lot quicker
The average coach’s tenure across all 32 NHL teams is 2.3 years, which is the lowest of the four major men’s leagues.
That number doesn’t include the tenures of the 10 coaches who have been dismissed or departed from their teams since the start of the 2024 offseason, either. Bannister, for example, didn’t even hit the one-year mark before the Blues moved on from him, and neither did Pascal Vincent in Columbus. David Quinn fell short of the two-year mark. And there are less drastic examples, too — Granato and Sheldon Keefe each lasted more than four years with their teams.
Joe Sacco in Boston and Montgomery in St. Louis are two of 20 coaches who have been behind the bench of their current team for less than two years. On the other hand, Andre Tourigny, who has been with Arizona and Utah for a total of 3.4 years, is now the fifth-longest tenured coach in the NHL.
Coaches like Jon Cooper, Mike Sullivan and Jared Bednar, who have been with their respective clubs for eight or more years, are the exception and not the rule in the NHL. Few make it past the five-year mark in today’s environment.
There aren’t a lot of coaches who have surpassed the five-year mark in most other leagues, either. Eleven coaches have been with their current teams for at least five years in MLB, but only eight have in the NBA and five in the NFL. Most coaches have been in their current position for at least two years — 20 in the NBA, 19 in MLB and 17 in the NFL compared to the 12 in the NHL.
So it shouldn’t be a surprise when an NHL coach’s seat heats up, right or wrong. That is just a part of the reality in this league. The question isn’t whether another coach will get fired this year, it’s just a matter of who and when.
Derek Lalonde, who has been with the Red Wings for almost two and a half years, is on the hot seat after his team’s disappointing start. While the roster is a big part of the problem, he is responsible for the team’s shortcomings — from their even-strength offense to their awful penalty killing.
Andrew Brunette may only be in his second season with the Predators, but that doesn’t preclude him from the hot seat. Nashville’s struggling at five-on-five after management made key signings to upgrade the roster, and the coaches don’t seem to have the answer on how to turn the season around.
Martin St. Louis could be faulted if the Canadiens don’t start progressing soon; the same is true with Luke Richardson in Chicago. The Penguins may eventually want a new voice if their direction officially changes. Teams with hopes of contending could get impatient with their coaches if their playoff chances start to fade, too. The Golden Knights are the prime example of that, with three different coaches in just seven seasons of existence. Coaches in New York and Edmonton have had pretty short leashes, too, in recent years.
No NHL head coach is safe in their current position. The only safety net is that most bench bosses have a high probability of finding a job elsewhere at this level.
Rangers are falling apart
The Rangers had a 93 percent chance of reaching the playoffs early in November. That has dropped down to 67 percent after a disastrous stretch of play.
After a strong start to the season, defensive concerns started to emerge in New York. It led to some ugly losses, like a 5-3 fall to Washington in late October, and some ugly wins. But the last couple of weeks have been especially troubling.
The Rangers bled rush chances against the Flames on their Western swing. As losses started to pile up from there, everything started to spiral on and off the ice. The team fell flat against the Oilers two nights later before collapsing against the Blues at home for one of their worst losses of the season. Their loss to the Flyers was crushing and their win over Montreal the next day wasn’t very convincing.
In three of the Rangers’ last six games, they’ve earned less than 40 percent of the expected goal share. The team has only broken even once in those six games, and that was in a 6-2 loss to Edmonton.
There is a lot of blame to go around in New York, and two defensemen are shouldering a heavy burden of it. Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren continue to struggle, both as a pair and individually when shifted to different combinations. And neither one of their declines is breaking news. The same is true with Mika Zibanejad, whose five-on-five game has trended down over the last couple of years.
The players aren’t executing or playing up to expectations. But these three in particular don’t seem to be a fit in Peter Laviolette’s system, either. While a coach isn’t responsible for the roster construction, it’s their job to maximize players within their system — even if it takes tactical adjustments.
The Rangers’ issues extend past three players. This last stretch seems to be weighing on most players in New York, which is only dragging their play down even further. It looks even worse when factoring in their strength of schedule so far, which isn’t as daunting as their record shows. There are core issues in New York and trade rumors developing have only amped that up. Now the pressure is mounting for the players to pick up the pace and the coaches to get this team back in sync.
GO DEEPER
In just over a week, the Rangers have fallen apart. What’s next?
Avalanche make a change in goal
Goaltending continues to be the problem in Colorado. No matter how well the team plays at five-on-five or how many reinforcements return up front, goaltending often drags the Avalanche down.
Alexandar Georgiev’s play has been the driving force behind that since Day 1 of the season. He allowed 7.9 goals above expected through his first three starts. While he has put up a few quality starts since — five in total now in 16 outings — many of the lows have been outright back-breaking. Just take Friday night’s performance against the Stars; the Avalanche tried to mount a comeback in the third period but couldn’t erase what Georgiev had allowed earlier in the game.
Georgiev’s disastrous start opened the door to Justus Annunen playing more, but he hasn’t been up to the task, either. And that finally inspired management to make a change. Annunen was sent to Nashville in exchange for Scott Wedgewood.
Wedgewood has proven to be a dependable backup in years past, most recently in 2022-23 in Dallas. But he struggled behind a stout Stars defense last year and hasn’t had a great start with the Predators, either. Maybe he can help stabilize the goalie situation in Colorado this season, but it feels like management is just putting a Band-Aid on a bad situation.
The Avalanche added a backup who is eight years older than Annunen and, at best, can be a 1B to Georgiev. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this team back on the market again in the spring if neither of these netminders turns its season around.
Annunen may not have handled the pressure well in Colorado, but the 24-year-old had the potential to help this team in the long run (especially since the team was without any NHL-caliber goalies signed past this season before the Wedgewood trade). Playing in a more limited backup role behind Juuse Saros should help Annunen stabilize his game. So should learning under director of goaltending Mitch Korn in Nashville.
Capitals are managing without Ovechkin
Between Alex Ovechkin’s chase for Wayne Gretzky’s record and the team strengthening its playoff chances from 19 percent in the preseason up to 93 percent, the Capitals have been one of the most exciting teams in the first quarter of the season.
The Ovechkin injury derailed some of that, and the first two games without him were especially tough to navigate. Washington fell short at five-on-five against the Avalanche and couldn’t beat Georgiev in one of his best games of the season. Then came a regulation loss to New Jersey a game later.
Since then, the Capitals have rattled off four straight wins. While the team is still hovering around a 55 percent expected goal rate since Ovechkin’s injury, it’s getting there differently. The Capitals have tightened up defensively, which is important since their rush defense started trailing off after their hot start, but they’re generating less offensively, too.
Some of that stems from a top line that clearly misses Ovechkin. Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome and Ovechkin had outscored opponents 16-5 to open the season while earning about 52 percent of the expected goal share. Without him, Protas and Strome have only broken even in scoring with four apiece and have sunk below 40 percent of the expected goal share. But even the second line of Connor McMichael, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson has slowed down, leading to more recent lineup adjustments.
What makes those offensive downticks even more challenging is that the Capitals’ shooting percentage has dropped from 14.3 percent at five-on-five pre-Ovechkin injury down to 7.7 percent. That regression was bound to happen, but it’s an even more dramatic drop without Ovechkin’s finishing talent.
Power-play scoring has helped make up for that lately, with eight goals over the last five games, which has been especially clutch to counter some goaltending woes as well. Things are far from perfect in Washington, but most importantly, the Capitals are finding ways to win despite losing their biggest star.
Podkolzin steps up in Edmonton
The Oilers have two of the best players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but they still need a supporting cast around their star talent. It seemed like management did a good job addressing that over the summer, adding players like Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner to round out the top six with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. But it’s safe to say that hasn’t gone according to plan so far.
Nugent-Hopkins is scoring at the lowest rate of his career and isn’t nearly as effective at five-on-five. Hyman, before being sidelined with injury, lost his scoring touch. Arvidsson has underwhelmed when healthy. And Skinner hasn’t stepped up, either.
The one bright spot? Vasily Podkolzin.
Podkolzin’s potential was hyped up in Vancouver, but despite having the tools to be an effective player, he struggled to put it all together consistently. And that seemed to be the case to start his tenure in Edmonton, too. But he is starting to emerge as a difference-maker on Draisaitl’s wing.
It’s easy to chalk up Podkolzin’s recent success to his surroundings. Playing with a star of Draisaitl’s caliber has elevated his game; playing with him and McDavid together didn’t hurt, either. This is probably the best position he has ever been in at the NHL level.
But ideally, supporting talent does more than ride their linemates’ coattails — they contribute something. That’s why players like Hyman have gained such a strong reputation — he is an elite supporting player who can complement star players, as he’s shown in Toronto and Edmonton.
Podkolzin is putting in the work to complement Draisaitl. He’s a relentless forechecker who helps retrieve pucks and keep plays alive, and he has one of the best impacts on the team’s expected goal suppression at five-on-five. Now he has started to get rewarded for it.
Stars of the month
Connor McDavid
Since returning from injury, McDavid has only been held off the scoresheet twice — in his first game back against Vegas and once more against Montreal on Nov. 18. He scored nine goals and 21 points in 11 games in November and has a point on 51 percent of the Oilers’ goals since returning. Edmonton is generating 0.74 more expected goals per 60 with McDavid on the ice, which is one of the best offensive impacts around the league at five-on-five. His star power is shining and helping him climb up the scoring charts to make up for lost time.
Aleksander Barkov
Like McDavid, Barkov hasn’t missed a step since returning from injury. With 21 points in 14 games last month, he was one of the leading scorers in November — a feat made even more impressive by the fact he faces some of the toughest offensive competition in the league. Barkov has a knack for not just shutting down his opponents but turning defense into offense in all situations, usually alongside Sam Reinhart as one of the best dynamic duos in the league. The Panthers have limited their opponents to just 2.05 expected goals against per 60 in Barkov’s minutes this month at five-on-five, earned 61 percent of the expected goal share and outscored opponents 15-8.
Connor Hellebuyck
Hellebuyck led all goalies in November with 13.3 goals saved above expected in all situations in his 10 appearances and a sparkling .931 save percentage. He has given his team a chance to win with eight quality starts in those 10 games, which helped the Jets extend their torrid start. And maybe most impressive is who his best games came against: Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota — division rivals, all in the playoff picture.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Jim Montgomery behind the Blues bench: Elsa / Getty Images)
