With the holidays ahead, it’s an ideal time to catch up on all things college hoops. Like one of my favorite quirky stats, which you may have missed last week: Every national champion since 2004 was ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Poll the year they won it all. So, fans of Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Duke, Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama, Gonzaga, Florida, Kansas, Purdue and Oregon, congratulations.
Maybe it’s not too late to ask for tickets to San Antonio for the holidays.
1. The Doug Gottlieb dunk-a-thon
There are quotes that age poorly … and then there’s this from Gottlieb, the former Fox Sports hot take artist who Green Bay tapped as its head coach this offseason — despite Gottlieb having as much college coaching experience as you and I:
Everyone is running with this clip. Doug Gottlieb never referred to Michigan Tech as ‘Nobody U’. Never even mentioned them. What you don’t hear is, “Every game on our schedule is a game that we can lose”. That’s @GottliebShow talking about their strength of nonconference. pic.twitter.com/7XZS8VfGBe
— Kyle Malzhan (@KyleMalzhan) December 19, 2024
That now-infamous “Nobody U” quote came days before Green Bay’s loss to DII Michigan Tech on Wednesday, and even if Gottlieb wasn’t specifically remarking on Michigan Tech, he more than got his point across. (Free idea for the fine folks at Michigan Tech: print some “Nobody U” shirts, if you haven’t already. They’ll make a killing, and I’ll take a large.) Gottlieb’s “defense” of that comment on X wasn’t any better.
Done with this crap. We scheduled up. Including Michigan Tech. No where ever, have I been critical of anyone on our schedule. Now, back to work.
— Doug Gottlieb (@GottliebShow) December 18, 2024
Scheduling UP? Against a DII team that went 11-17 last season? C’mon, man. Gottlieb — like yours truly — probably didn’t even know Michigan Tech’s mascot before last week! (If you do, and you’ve never lived in Michigan, then kudos.)
But the real reason people are up in arms over the whole “Nobody U” thing is because of how patently stupid this entire Gottlieb experiment is. Not only did Green Bay hire someone with zero college experience — his lack of qualifications is insulting enough to the coaching profession — but the real damning part is that Gottlieb has continued hosting his radio show since being named head coach! You’ve got time for that, buddy? When your team is 2-11, in last place in the Horizon, has lost eight straight and ranks 329th out of 364 teams in KenPom’s efficiency rankings? Really?
Given those circumstances, having the elitist attitude to call anyone “Nobody U” has made Gottlieb prime for dunking on. Some free advice for Doug: Just get off social media. When Adam Schefter’s putting you in a body bag, it’s time to chill with the Twitter fingers.
And Jeezus, Doug. A seven-game losing steak and last place in the Horizon League? Less time on social media and more time in the gym. pic.twitter.com/r58Fpwfvb8
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 17, 2024
And as if this total flaming disaster isn’t funny enough, guess what Gottlieb was doing the morning of that Michigan Tech loss? Oh, you betcha: Posting about a decades-old call from a game he had absolutely nothing to do with.
It stinks for the kids at Green Bay that they’ve gotten roped into this, but Green Bay signed up for it by hiring Gottlieb. You wanted publicity? Well, you’ve got it. Time to wallow in this mess of your making for at least another three months.
2. Four undefeated teams remain, even after Jumpman Invitational scares
There are only four undefeated DI teams left: No. 1 Tennessee, which beat Illinois (in Champaign!) on its final possession last weekend; No. 7 Florida, which held on versus North Carolina on Tuesday despite losing all of a 17-point first-half lead; No. 14 Oklahoma, which trailed basically all game versus Michigan but won on a 4-point play with under 15 seconds left; and … Drake, which beat its third high-major team this season (Kansas State) courtesy of an overtime buzzer-beater. (Hilariously, Drake’s next opponent? Green Bay!)
Three SEC teams, and the Missouri Valley front-runner. Just like we all drew it up.
But having been in Charlotte, N.C., for the Jumpman Invitational, I want to focus on Florida and Oklahoma, both of which have been much better this season than I believed they would be. SEC prognosticators picked them sixth and 15th in the preseason.
Florida’s depth and balance make it one of the best teams in the country. Per CBB Analytics, among high-major lineups that have played at least 75 minutes together, UF’s starters have the 10th-best net rating, outscoring opponents by 31.1 points per 100 possessions. What’s wild, though? That’s the Gators’ only fourth-most efficient lineup this season; the other three all feature different combinations of forwards next to Todd Golden’s trio of senior guards: Alijah Martin, Will Richard and Walter Clayton Jr. But that trio definitely drives the bus in Gainesville, and rivals any backcourt in the country. It’s accounting for 54.2 percent of Florida’s scoring, 56.1 percent of its assists and 34.4 percent of its rebounds. Clayton has been the best of the bunch — an 18.5 point-per-game scorer who looks like an All-American — but all three have been awesome, and few (if any) teams have the ability to shut down the entire trio.
Richard was the late hero against North Carolina. RJ Davis was solid defensively in forcing Martin into a tough turnaround jumper, but Richard gets the first touch after the miss, then the offensive rebound and then completes the triple-jump for the putback. The Gators are eighth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, per KenPom, and Richard was one of five different players with at least two such boards versus the Tar Heels.
As for Oklahoma, in a year full of elite freshmen, one guy who definitely isn’t getting enough attention is Jeremiah Fears — but that should change after Wednesday, when Fears did this to push the Sooners past the Wolverines:
Talk about stones. Fears canned the subsequent free throw, too, in a high-pressure setting. What he’s doing defies conventional standards for reclassified guards. Fears should still be a high school senior, but instead, the 18-year-old opted to graduate high school early and join the Sooners in July. All the 6-foot-4 freshman has done since then is emerge as Porter Moser’s best player and a potential first-round NBA draft pick.
What’s perhaps most impressive about Fears is how he’s been so effective, largely as a one-on-one scorer. Per Synergy, Fears’ most efficient offense is in iso situations, where he ranks as “excellent” and in the 88th percentile nationally. That’s absurd and speaks to Fears’ special quickness. He draws five personal fouls per game, per CBB Analytics — which ranks in the 98th percentile nationally — and his 6.5 free-throw attempts per game are 13th-most amongst high-major players. Look how easily he gets past Tre Donaldson, who grades out as Michigan’s stingiest perimeter defender:
What’s equally encouraging, especially for NBA evaluators, is how comfortable Fears looked in the pick-and-roll versus Michigan. Per Synergy, Fears had a season-high 11 possessions as a pick-and-roll handler versus the Wolverines, and he either scored or got fouled on eight of those trips, leading to 16 of his game-high 30 points. I love how seamlessly he rejects screens to get to his spots. He does that here and then gobbles up all the space Vlad Goldin had to cover in Michigan’s drop:
Fears isn’t the only reason Oklahoma is undefeated and set to enter the top 10, but he’s certainly the biggest. Moser has his stud, and it should lead to the Sooners making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in his tenure.
3. Meanwhile, North Carolina (and to a lesser extent, Michigan) still needs work
The Tar Heels have been much maligned this season, dropping to 1-5 versus high-major opponents after their loss to Florida. Really, the same issues — like falling behind by double-digits — keep cropping up for Hubert Davis’ team, which thus far has had no answers for its problems. Even though it’s only December, it’s getting late early for UNC. If the Tar Heels don’t beat No. 18 UCLA on Saturday, in their final significant nonconference game, then the storied blue blood likely will need to win at least 15 games in the ACC to have a comfortable at-large resume. (And looking ahead to March, if North Carolina misses the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three seasons? Davis’ seat is going to get scalding hot.)
As for Michigan, the Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin pick-and-roll pairing remains one of the toughest actions to stop in college basketball. So, why did the Wolverines go away from those two down the stretch versus Oklahoma? Michigan led by five with under seven minutes to play, but its Twin Towers — who finished with 41 of the team’s 86 points — got off only four shots combined thereafter. The rest of UM went 1-for-6 with two turnovers, the last of which by Roddy Gayle came with under 30 seconds to play and Michigan up three. Ouch.
Dusty May has shown no hesitation to funnel offense through Wolf and Goldin, as he should; per CBB Analytics, when they’re both on the floor, Michigan outscores its opponents by 31 points per 100 possessions. They’re a key reason why Michigan leads the nation in 2-point percentage. What is a defense supposed to do when a 7-foot ballhandler moves and passes like this on the perimeter?
That isn’t normal. It’s also why I’m still very in on Michigan over the long term, even if the top of the Big Ten is loaded. The turnovers and inconsistent 3-point shooting are concerns, yes, but I’m betting on those bigs (and May) being good enough to sand out the Wolverines’ rough edges.
4. Hope you got your UConn jokes in when you could …
Because since going 0-3 in the Maui Invitational, Dan Hurley’s Huskies look, well, a lot more like the top-10 team we expected them to be.
Per Bart Torvik’s sorting tool, since leaving Hawaii, UConn ranks as the No. 10 team in the nation, with the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency during that stretch. The Huskies defense is still 85th in adjusted efficiency over that time — that seems like it’s going to be more of a year-long struggle for Hurley — but three straight wins over top-40 KenPom teams, plus Wednesday’s overtime victory over Xavier (even though XU was missing its best player, Zach Freemantle), affirms that UConn is back on the right track.
So how did Hurley do that?
A few ways. Leaning more heavily on five-star freshman Liam McNeeley has been a big one. The 6-foot-7 McNeeley is tailor-made for the Cam Spencer role, and over UConn’s past five games, he’s averaging 16 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He was huge against Gonzaga especially, finishing with a team-high 26 points, and even fighting through foul trouble versus Xavier, he still managed to chip in 14 points, four assists, three rebounds and no turnovers. No surprise that once he picked up his second personal foul in the first half versus the Musketeers, UConn went almost seven minutes straight without scoring. He’s become that essential to the Huskies’ success. Guess where Hurley went with 90 seconds left and his team down one?
UConn also got key contributions from Alex Karaban and Tarris Reed, who started his first game of the season (because typical starter Samson Johnson was out with a concussion). I’m still not sure that Reed shouldn’t be UConn’s starting center from here on out; his footwork has been miles better than it was at Michigan last season, and he ranks in the 85th percentile or higher nationally as a post-up scorer, cutter and pick-and-roll roll man, per Synergy. I’ll gladly chair the Tarris Reed fan club.
But what won the Xavier game, and what UConn will need to show more consistently, was defense. With just over two minutes left in overtime, Xavier had the ball down five; a basket would’ve made it a one-possession game again, and kept the Musketeers right in it. Instead? Xavier missed back-to-back shots from inside six feet — because UConn built a wall — before Solo Ball read an ill-timed pass, jumped it and was subsequently fouled going the other way in transition. His two free throws turned what could’ve been a one-possession game into a 7-point cushion.
UConn’s next defensive possession was just as stout. Ball closed off Dayvion McKnight’s options in the lane, forcing Xavier to reset, and then Karaban fought through an ineffective screen to block Marcus Foster’s late shot-clock 3:
UConn is far from a finished product, and it isn’t nearly the wagon it was last season, but I still wouldn’t want any part of the Huskies anytime soon.
5. Blind resume test
Just to check your perceptions at the door. Which resume would you rather have?
Team A:
• 7-3 overall
• Top-40 offense and top-15 defense
• One win over a top-35 team
• Two of three losses to ranked foes
Team B:
• 9-2 overall
• Top-40 offense and top-15 defense
• No wins over top-35 teams
• Both losses to ranked foes
Time’s up. Team A is … Illinois, one of the perceived Big Ten front-runners. Team B is … Maryland, which is receiving votes in the AP Poll but with significantly less national attention. Both teams have a potential first-round freshman, too — Kasparas Jakucionis (and Will Riley) for Illinois, Derik Queen for Maryland — which makes the comparison that more interesting. Long term, I probably like Illinois’ makeup better than Maryland’s? But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Queen-Julian Reese frontcourt pairing means the Terps fare better in Big Ten play.
OK, another one. Who would you rather be?
Team C:
• 8-3 overall
• Top-15 offense and top-75 defense
• Three wins over top-35 teams
• Two of three losses to ranked foes
Team D:
• 10-2 overall
• Top-15 offense and top-75 defense
• Two wins over top-35 teams
• One of two losses to ranked foes
Got your vote?
Team C is … Purdue, another Big Ten front-runner (which plays Auburn on Saturday, although the Tigers seem likely to be missing Johni Broome, who is dealing with a shoulder injury). Team D is … Dayton, which looks not just like the Atlantic-10 favorite, but like a team that could do serious damage in the NCAA Tournament. Had Dayton not surrendered a 21-point lead to North Carolina in the Maui Invitational, we might be talking about the Flyers as a borderline top-10 team. Really. Don’t sleep on Anthony Grant’s squad. Friday’s de facto road game versus Cincinnati should be one of this weekend’s best.
Happy hoops watching, and happy holidays, to all of you.