NFL Week 16 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Hollywood Brown set to debut, George Pickens ruled out

Welcome to the Week 16 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Dec. 20. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

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Last updated: 2:30 p.m. ET, Dec. 20

Injury news | Weather report
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NFL playoff projections | Fantasy football player rankings

Injury news

Updated through 2:30 p.m. ET, Dec. 20

Saturday

George Pickens, WR, PIT (hamstring) — Out
Pickens was ruled out for Saturday’s game, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. In Week 15’s loss to the Eagles, Calvin Austin III led all receivers with five receptions and 65 yards, but Pickens is the only natural fantasy starter among Pittsburgh’s receiving corps.

Justin Fields, QB, PIT (abdomen) — Out
Fields has been ruled out for Week 16. No longer the starter, the fantasy impact is minimal, though it’s even less likely that Russell Wilson gets pulled mid-game with Fields sitting.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC (ankle) — Expected to play
After injuring his ankle in Week 15, Mahomes is expected to play Saturday against the Texans and is not on the Chiefs’ injury report.

Hollywood Brown, WR, KC (shoulder) — Questionable
Brown was a full participant in Thursday’s practice and could play this week, giving Mahomes another playmaker alongside Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins.

Joe Mixon, RB, HOU (ankle) — Expected to play
Mixon was limited in Wednesday’s practice but fell off the injury report Thursday. His backups, Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale, will likely share carries if Mixon misses time, but that seems unlikely at this point.

Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL (foot) — Questionable
Nelson Agholor, WR, BAL (concussion) — Questionable
Diontae Johnson, WR, BAL (personal) — Out
Bateman was spotted with a walking boot on his foot in Baltimore’s locker room Thursday, according to The Athletic’s Jeff Zrebiec. Agholor did not practice due to a concussion, and Johnson has been ruled out (as anticipated). Zay Flowers is Lamar Jackson’s top target, followed by Bateman and TE Mark Andrews.

Sunday 1 p.m.

Joe Burrow, QB, CIN (wrist/knee)  — Questionable
Burrow was limited in Thursday’s practice, according to The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Kelsey Conway. It’s early in the week, so there’s no need to worry or even mention backup Jake Browning.

Tee Higgins, WR, CIN (knee) — Questionable
Higgins didn’t practice Thursday but is expected to return Friday, according to ESPN’s Ben Baby. Higgins likely sees the field Sunday, but if he doesn’t, TE Mike Gesicki could benefit. There’s no need to turn to Andrei Iosivas during the fantasy football playoffs.

David Montgomery, RB, DET (knee) — Out
Montgomery could be back for the playoffs after consulting with multiple medical experts, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Head coach Dan Campbell said Detroit will turn to Craig Reynolds and “potentially” rookie Sione Vaki to take on expanded roles behind Jahmyr Gibbs in the meantime.

Nick Chubb, RB, CHI (foot) — Out / injured reserve
Chubb was placed on injured reserve after breaking his foot. Jerome Ford should lead the backfield for the remainder of the season.

A.J. Brown, WR, PHI (knee/rest) — Questionable
Brown was limited at Thursday’s practice, but there’s no real concern about his playing status yet. If Brown were to sit, DeVonta Smith could be in for a big game.

Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE (concussion) — Questionable
David Njoku, TE, CLE (hamstring) — Questionable
Tillman was a limited participant in practice Thursday, while Njoku was not spotted, according to The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Mary Kay Cabot. Jerry Jeudy has been the Cleveland wide receiver to roster lately, averaging 22.45 PPR points per game since Week 9; Njoku has averaged 13.39 PPR points per game. But Dorian Thompson-Robinson replaces Jameis Winston as QB this week, so Njoku becomes a fringe start at tight end, while Jeudy is a higher-end flex option.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG (ankle) — Questionable
Tracy was limited at practice Thursday and has been slowing lately. Since Week 13, Tracy is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, compared to 5.1 YPC before then. He still had 19.3 PPR points in Week 14, and he’s Jake Ciely’s RB29 if he plays. If he can’t go, Devin Singletary will man the backfield with help from Eric Gray.

Malik Nabers, WR, NYG (knee/foot) — Expected to play
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, NYG (shoulder) — Expected to play
Nabers and Robinson were limited in Wednesday’s practice but are expected to play after falling off the injury report. Nabers continues to be a WR2 with Drew Lock under center, while Robinson is a bench candidate.

Drew Lock, QB, NYG (heel/left elbow) — Expected to play
Lock was limited in Wednesday’s practice but is expected to start in Week 16 and has come off the injury report. Tommy DeVito will back him up.

Alec Pierce, WR, IND (concussion) — Questionable
Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND (back) — Expected to play
Pittman is now expected to play, and Pierce handled cone drills to the side of Thursday’s practice. Josh Downs is Indy’s most highly targeted receiver (7.82 targets per game), followed by Pittman (6.77) and Pierce (4.14). Downs also averages the most receiving yards per game (56.91), and he could have a big week if the Colts’ are without other receivers. But temper expectations to some degree with Anthony Richardson, who is wildly inconsistent, under center.

Matt Gay, K, IND (neck) — Questionable
Gay did not participate in Thursday’s practice. Keep an eye on the Colts and whether they sign a kicker to the practice squad.

Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR (knee/illness) — Questionable
Higbee was activated from the physically unable to perform list, but he missed Thursday’s practice with an illness. He’s likely to make his season debut in Week 16 after having worked his way back from a torn MCL and ACL. If he can’t play, Colby Parkinson will start for the Rams but shouldn’t start in fantasy football lineups.

Braelon Allen, RB, NYJ (back) — Questionable
Isaiah Davis, RB, NYJ (back) — Questionable
Allen and Davis were limited participants in Wednesday’s practice. Allen left Week 15’s contest against the Jaguars after only two carries for five yards. Breece Hall led the backfield with nine rushes, and Davis had five carries. With Hall off the injury report, it’s probably best to bench Allen and Davis this week.

Xavier Legette, WR, CAR (hip) — Doubtful
Jalen Coker, WR, CAR (quadriceps) — Questionable
Legette didn’t practice Thursday and is doubtful to play this week. Adam Thielen is Bryce Young’s top target, while Coker — a limited participant in Thursday’s practice — had 110 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 15. Assuming Coker plays, both he and Thielen benefit if Legette sits.

Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI (concussion) — Questionable
Johnson was a full participant Thursday and could see carries alongside D’Andre Swift in Week 16. With Johnson out last week, Swift handled most of the backfield work with 4.2 yards per carry on 19 rushes.

Younghoe Koo, K, ATL (hip) — Out / Injured reserve
Koo has been placed on injured reserve after re-aggravating a hip injury during Monday’s win against the Raiders, according to the Falcons’ official site. The Falcons have signed Riley Patterson off the Browns’ practice squad to replace Koo.

Matt Prater, K, ARI (knee) — Questionable
Prater was designated to return from injured reserve, according to the Cardinals’ official site, and he was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF (foot/hamstring) — Questionable
Guerendo did not practice Wednesday, according to SFStandard.com’s David Lombardi, and on Thursday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported the Niners RB is unlikely to play Sunday. If Guerendo sits, Patrick Taylor Jr. is next up and a decent deep-league flex option.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, SEA (calf) — Expected to play
Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA (oblique) — Questionable
Walker has come off the injury report and is expected to play. Charbonnet has excelled in the backfield after Walker’s injury, but if Charbonnet sits, Walker is primed for a good week. Otherwise, they’ll share the workload and descend to RB2/flex territory.

DK Metcalf, WR, SEA (shoulder) — Expected to play
Metcalf is now expected to play, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been Seattle’s most productive wide receiver for fantasy purposes this year. Metcalf has descended to Ciely’s WR38 — 38! — this week.

Geno Smith, QB, SEA (knee) — Expected to play
Smith was a full participant in Wednesday’s practice and is now expected to play, despite leaving Week 15’s matchup with a knee injury.

Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA (wrist) — Expected to play
Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA (knee) — Questionable
Hill has come off the injury report, but Waddle did not practice Thursday. In Miami’s ugly loss to Houston in Week 15, TE Jonnu Smith and WR Malik Washington had more receiving yards than Hill or Waddle. If Waddle sits, Washington could have another decent game.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA (hip) — Questionable
Tagovailoa was limited at practice Wednesday. Miami’s QB leads the league in completion percentage (73.7 percent) but threw four interceptions in Week 15. It’s early in the week, and Tagovailoa likely plays, but Tyler Huntley is the Dolphins’ backup in case he doesn’t.

Sincere McCormick, RB, LV (ankle) — Injured reserve
McCormick joined fellow RB Zamir White on injured reserve, leaving the Raiders with RBs Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah in the backfield. Abdullah has been the more efficient back with 4.1 yards per carry, but Mattison (3.3 YPC) averages 9.45 rushes per game, compared to Abdullah’s 2.79.

Jakobi Meyers, WB, LV (ankle) — Questionable
Meyers was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell came off the injury report, so if Meyers plays, he’s a great flex option this week, averaging 13.96 PPR points per game.

Brenton Strange, TE, JAX (shoulder) — Questionable
Strange was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice due to a shoulder injury. Strange took over at tight end after Evan Engram hit IR and had 73 receiving yards on 12 targets and 11 receptions in Week 15.

Tony Pollard, RB, TEN (ankle) — Questionable
Pollard was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, and here he is again. He didn’t practice Thursday, and if he doesn’t play, Tyjae Spears could be a decent flex option.

Tyler Boyd, WR, TEN (foot) — Questionable
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, TEN (ankle) — Questionable
Neither Boyd nor Westbrook-Ikhine practiced Thursday, but neither is likely to start on many rosters during the fantasy playoffs. NWI has had some high-scoring fantasy games, but his fantasy points come from touchdowns and down-the-field throws. In Week 15, he had only two receptions for nine yards. Mason Rudolph will start at QB in Week 16, but his season-long passer rating (81.5) is barely better than Will Levis’ (79.8).

Zach Ertz, TE, WAS (concussion) — Questionable
Ertz was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice after leaving Week 15’s contest with a concussion. After backup John Bates showed up on the injury report Thursday, rookie Ben Sinnott could get the start in Week 16 if Ertz sits.

Sunday Night Football

CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL (shoulder) — Expected to play
Lamb put in a full practice Thursday and is expected to play. In recent weeks, Lamb has been on the injury report early in the week, only to drop off of it later. If he reappears on the injury report, Brandin Cooks benefits most, averaging five targets per game.

Baker Mayfield, QB, TB (knee) — Expected to play
Mayfield didn’t practice Wednesday due to a knee injury, but he’s off the injury report and expected to play.

Bucky Irving, RB, TB (back/hip) — Questionable
Irving was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice. He was on the injury report ahead of Week 15, too, and then had 15 carries for 117 yards. If he sits, Rachaad White’s value increases, but White and Irving will likely share work in the backfield in Week 16, as usual.

Cade Otton, TE, TB (knee) — Questionable
Otton didn’t practice Thursday. He has been a great addition to Tampa Bay’s offense but has slowed recently. Otton’s best performance in the past five weeks came in Week 14 when he had 70 yards receiving on three catches and four targets.

Monday Night Football

Derek Carr, QB, NO (concussion, hand) — Doubtful
Carr was examined for his fractured left hand and is a few weeks away from being cleared to take contact, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Interim coach Darren Rizzi said Spencer Rattler will start at quarterback on Monday, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Alvin Kamara, RB, NO (groin) — Doubtful
Kamara is unlikely to play Monday, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. His groin injury is worse than initially thought. Kendre Miller will lead the Saints backfield in Kamara’s absence and is a decent flex option. But Green Bay has a tough rush defense, and the Saints may play from behind, forcing them to throw more often.

Chris Olave, WR, NO (concussion) — Injured reserve
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, NO (chest) — Questionable
Olave’s 21-day window to return from the injured reserve has been opened, and he was officially limited at practice Thursday, according to Mike Triplett at NewOrleans.Football. Valdes-Scantling did not participate in Thursday’s practice, and while he’s the most startable pass catcher for the Saints, it’s tough to start him during fantasy playoffs with Spencer Rattler under center.

Juwan Johnson, TE, NO (foot) — Questionable
Johnson was limited at Thursday’s practice, but backup Foster Moreau out-produced Johnson in Week 15.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

December weather is here, and eight matchups this week come with expected temperatures below 35 degrees. The Patriots–Bills contest could see temperatures in the teens. In Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather, he notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop that low, as illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, of those eight matchups, only the Saints-Packers contest also comes with a chance (27 percent) of precipitation (snow). The Vikings–Seahawks matchup has an expected temperature of 49 degrees but comes with an 89 percent chance of rain.

New Orleans Saints (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

Precipitation primarily impacts the passing game, as teams often lean on their backfields when it rains or snows. Deploy Josh Jacobs without a second thought, and if Alvin Kamara sits, Kendre Miller is a fringe RB2/flex option. According to TruMedia, there is no data for New Orleans’ rookie QB Spencer Rattler or Green Bay’s Jordan Love in the snow; however, Rattler spent his college and NFL career in the South, while Jordan Love went to Utah State in Logan, Utah (58.2 inches of snow annually). Take that for whatever it’s worth.

Against the Lions in Week 9 when rain (not snow) poured down, Love didn’t do so well. He completed only 59 percent of his passes and threw one interception to zero touchdowns, and Green Bay lost 24-14. He did put up 273 passing yards, and head coach Matt LaFleur trusted Love to attempt 39 passes. The Packers leading receiver in the game was Jayden Reed, who finished with 113 yards on five receptions.

Green Bay is favored by nearly two scores against the Saints, so the weather is slightly less relevant, but Green Bay still has the advantage. The Packers are quite accustomed to the cold; New Orleans and Rattler aren’t.

Minnesota Vikings (12-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

Running backs do just fine when rain hits, so start Vikings RB Aaron Jones Sr. without worry. After Zach Charbonnet’s performance in Kenneth Walker III’s absence, the Seattle backs could share carries, but rain might mean more backfield touches.

According to TruMedia, Sam Darnold has played in three games where rain was present at kickoff. In two of the three games, he played poorly. However, combined, his completion percentage was 60 percent, with a 78.0 passer rating. He threw for three touchdowns, rushed for one and had one interception. Without rain, his career completion percentage is only 61.3 percent, though it’s been 67.6 percent this season.

Darnold is having an incredible year, so his career stats are less telling, but his poor play in the rain matters and could limit Justin Jefferson’s and Jordan Addison’s ceilings. In fantasy, Jefferson is a must-start WR1, and Addison is a WR2, so consider complementing them with another high-ceiling (rather than high-floor) player in the flex position.

Geno Smith is even worse in the rain. His rainy-day completion percentage is a dismal 55.6 percent, with a 69.5 passer rating — over 10 points lower in each category than his career numbers of a 65 percent completion percentage and an 88.1 passer rating. DK Metcalf is already low on Jake Ciely’s weekly rankings at WR38, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s (Ciely’s WR13) fantasy production may also be limited.

Live updates are available on the day of the game. You can stream the NFL on Fubo (try for free).

Saturday

Houston Texans (9-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)

• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium — Kansas City, Mo.
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

Having clinched the AFC South, the Houston Texans travel as field-goal underdogs to face the Kansas City Chiefs — AFC leaders vying for a first-round playoff bye. Patrick Mahomes, nursing an ankle injury from Week 15, is now expected to play. Last week Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco each had 13 carries, with Hunt rushing for 45 yards compared to Pacheco’s 32. Xavier Worthy led all receivers with 46 receiving yards on 11 targets, while Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins had eight and six targets, respectively. The potential return of Hollywood Brown, who’s practicing this week, could add a new dimension to Kansas City’s passing game. But with no true No. 1 WR with week-to-week production, Kelce is the only reliable fantasy option.

For Houston, WR Nico Collins and RB Joe Mixon are every-week starters. Despite Mixon’s modest 10.6 PPR points against the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, he averages 20.25 points and leads the league in total touches per game. Collins scored two touchdowns for 17.7 PPR points last week despite a meager 17 receiving yards. The Chiefs and Texans defenses rank inside the top 10 in allowed points per game, yards per game and yards per play. Houston is also ranked second in takeaways. The game’s over/under was only 41.5 as of Thursday afternoon, the second-lowest of the week.

Read the full preview (coming Saturday).

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium — Baltimore, Md.
• Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox

Though the Baltimore Ravens trail the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, they are favored by nearly a touchdown in Week 16. Lamar Jackson has been incredible this season, leading the league in total yards (4,323), yards per attempt (8.9), and touchdowns (37, T-Joe Burrow) while throwing only three interceptions all season. Beneficiaries include Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman (not Diontae Johnson, as it turns out) and TE Mark Andrews. In the backfield, Derrick Henry has averaged 18.64 PPR points per game and has 1,474 rushing yards on the season, trailing only Saquon Barkley (1,688).

Pittsburgh’s defense leads the league in takeaways and ranks 10th in yards per play allowed, but Baltimore has only 10 turnovers on the season (ranked fourth). Against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, Russell Wilson attempted just 22 passes and threw for only 128 yards. With George Pickens already ruled out, avoid Steelers receivers in the fantasy football playoffs. Pittsburgh managed only 56 yards on the ground last week, and Najee Harris is Jake Ciely’s RB30 this week, so avoid their RBs, too. Even Russell Wilson is only a Superflex starter this week, at best.

Read the full preview (coming Saturday).

Sunday afternoon

Minnesota Vikings (12-2) vs. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)

• Venue: Lumen Field — Seattle, Wash.
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

The Minnesota Vikings travel to Lumen Field as field-goal favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. Sam Darnold has revived his career under head coach Kevin O’Connell (Coach of the Year, anyone?) with the fourth-best passer rating (104.9) in the NFL. Over one-third of Darnold’s 3,530 passing yards have gone to Justin Jefferson. When he draws coverage, Jordan Addison benefits with a ceiling of around 30 PPR points, which he’s topped twice, most recently in Week 14. Aaron Jones Sr. is a reliable fantasy starter, and T.J. Hockenson is Ciely’s TE6 this week. This team has a loaded fantasy offense, and Seattle’s defense is … average.

For the Seahawks, Geno Smith is expected to play after leaving with a knee injury last week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the receiver to start for the Hawks, especially as DK Metcalf nurses a shoulder injury. JSN’s ascent means DK Metcalf can’t be started confidently, as his target share has dropped below 20 percent. Kenneth Walker III could return this week, but Zach Charbonnet has excelled in his absence, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. If Walker plays, he and Charbonnet will likely share carries and move to RB2/3 territory.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)

• Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored by just over a field goal on the road against the Dallas Cowboys. Baker Mayfield, in the second year of his redemption tour, ranks third in the NFL in passing yards and completion percentage, but he also has 14 interceptions, fewer than only the recently benched Kirk Cousins. While Mayfield’s connection with Mike Evans is ever-giving to fantasy players, lately, he’s building rapport with rookie Jalen McMillan, who scored 21.9 and 18.5 PPR points in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. And Bucky Irving and Rachaad White make a great one-two punch in the backfield. Since Week 11, the Bucs’ offense ranks third in explosive play percentage.

But for all its offensive spoils, Tampa Bay struggles on defense, surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (247.7). Although Cooper Rush may not fully exploit this weakness, CeeDee Lamb stands to benefit. In Week 15, Lamb topped 100 receiving yards for the first time since Dak Prescott’s injury, and he’s scored over 20 PPR points two weeks in a row. Rico Dowdle has saved the Cowboys from looking foolish after not investing in a running back this offseason. He’s had three 100-rushing yard games in a row with near-complete control of the backfield. But the fantasy depth ends there, especially during the playoffs. Turn elsewhere (maybe across the field to McMillan) for players to flex in Week 16.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Monday night

New Orleans Saints (5-9) vs. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay, Wis.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC

Green Bay, favored by over two touchdowns at home as of Thursday afternoon, can clinch a wild-card spot by defeating the New Orleans Saints this week. Jordan Love has been impressive lately, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game with a 119.9 passer rating since Week 11. However, starting a Green Bay wide receiver still feels like a gamble. Romeo Doubs is rostered in only 41.5 percent of ESPN leagues, leads the team in targets per game, and has never scored zero PPR points, unlike Jayden Reed and Christian Watson. Yet, when all three are on the field together, Reed wins the target share battle. Given the fantasy playoffs, avoiding all Packers WRs may be wise. Look to other skill positions where Tucker Kraft is fantasy’s TE8 and Josh Jacobs is RB6 on the year … which brings us to the Saints.

Alvin Kamara (groin) is questionable ahead of this matchup, and in Week 15, he was out-rushed by Kendre Miller after Kamara left with an injury. If Kamara sits, Miller is a fringe RB2/flex option. However, Green Bay’s rush defense is in the top 10 in most categories, and the Saints will likely (according to the odds) be playing catch-up most of the game. Otherwise, there’s Marquez Valdes-Scantling, whose ceiling was high with Derek Carr, but his value diminishes with Spencer Rattler throwing passes … and that’s all folks.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday)

Week 16 market share report

Michael Salfino looks at usage across to league to help you set your lineup for the fantasy playoffs.

Jerome Ford is rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues (44 percent), so he could be on waivers in your league. But should we start him against the Bengals if we have him on our teams, or we can pick him up? I’d have him about RB20, given that Jameis Winston is benched. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has basically no floor except whatever we think the Bengals’ defense provides (which could be somewhat high). Maybe Ford is 15th. My point is he’s not an automatic start.

See the model’s projections and select your favorite team to see where it stands.

Get Ciely’s full Week 16 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.