Eddie Howe looked and sounded defeated; he wasn’t, but he looked it. His team had been badly beaten at Brentford, shipping four soft goals that made the head coach “cringe”. There was an apology to the club’s travelling supporters and a stark admission. “It is difficult to work out,” he said of the debris that amounted to Newcastle United’s form.
“Our season has been very disappointing,” Bruno Guimaraes, the captain, said.
That 4-2 loss at the Gtech Community Stadium meant Newcastle had won two of their previous 11 matches in the Premier League. It meant 12th in the table. It meant the positivity generated by a vivid 3-3 draw with Liverpool in their previous match had evaporated, a story of inconsistency that was beginning to calcify. It meant discomfort and pressure heading into home matches against relegation-threatened Leicester City in the league and Brentford in the Carabao Cup.
In The Athletic, Alan Shearer, Newcastle’s record goalscorer, wrote about a team that has “gone stale”, about big players not turning up every week, and about a club that had “reached a crossroads” post-takeover. It didn’t feel hyperbolic. It did feel like something had to shift and, although Shearer expressed his full support for Howe — “he can and should lead the team forward,” he said — there was recognition that “all managers, teams and squads need to refresh”.
Less than four weeks on, Newcastle stand fifth. Not only are they unbeaten since Brentford, they have won their five matches in all competitions, scoring 16 goals and conceding one. While there are plenty of legitimate questions still to be answered about strategy, their stadium and transfers, they are into the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup and are once again contenders for a Champions League place, a scenario that felt deeply improbable a month ago.
On Monday, they deservedly won only their second league match at Old Trafford since 1972, a famous night when every outfield player either took a shot at goal or created one. At Crystal Palace, exactly a month earlier, when they drew 1-1, they had a total of one shot and none on target.
Newcastle have found a way to refresh, a way which, if brevity is your thing, can largely be explained in two words: Sandro and Tonali. Moving the Italy midfielder backwards has brought forward momentum, but there have also been other subtle tweaks, to tactics and temperament and personnel. For a few days, a season teetered on a precipice. This is how they pulled themselves back.
Perspective and home truths
As far as Howe was concerned, there was no looming crisis after Brentford and no panacea for his team’s ills. He was not defeated but hugely frustrated; he felt that Newcastle were not far away from playing well, a theory that was undermined by the goals they conceded. “You can’t defend like that and expect to win games,” he said, but they had mustered more possession, shots and touches inside the box than Thomas Frank’s team.
Yet there was also a recognition that Newcastle could not carry on as they were, lurching between extremes. If the summer and autumn had been tough — a desperate battle to adhere to the Premier League’s profit and sustainability rules (PSR), churn in the boardroom, the arrival of a new sporting director in Paul Mitchell, rocky relationships, a poor transfer window — then winter threatened to be a frigid one if results did not turn. They had to do something.
Howe’s modus operandi is to avoid peaks and troughs of emotion, whether on the touchline or in the privacy of the training ground. He has always believed players will respond if he is calm and analytical. There were no histrionics in the free week after Brentford, but a sharing of responsibility, with Howe holding individual meetings with all of his team members, discussing and examining their performances and what they should be doing better.
This was the groundwork for Newcastle’s reset, assisted by a dressing room that remains united and full of good characters, even if their leadership structure has altered over the past few months, with Guimaraes elevated to the captaincy and senior players like Matt Ritchie and Paul Dummett leaving. They are not deluded. At Brentford, Newcastle “played really bad”, Anthony Gordon told reporters. “From then it was like, ‘Who are we going to be?’.”
Howe trusts his squad to find solutions, or at least to be part of that process. Players were encouraged to talk collectively. “We can… put our friendships to one side when needed,” Guimaraes said in Newcastle’s match programme last month. “To be a true group, sometimes you need to have discussions and strong words.” Gordon added: “We realised that was a point where we needed to really kick on.”
Bruno Guimaraes has replaced Kieran Trippier as captain this season (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
The Tonali factor
Attitude alone could not explain away Newcastle’s volatility. There was something more fundamental within their setup that required changing. It was not about dramatic alterations but subtle tweaks throughout the team.
Having experimented with Joelinton on the left wing, as well as the Brazilian, Gordon and Harvey Barnes on the right, Howe reverted to some of his early-season selection decisions. Gordon was back on the left, Joelinton returned to left-sided No 8 and Jacob Murphy was recalled as a direct, right-footed out-and-out right winger.
It was a far-from-popular choice when Murphy was named in the XI for Liverpool, but he has started every game since and has contributed three goals and four assists during one of his trademark fruitful runs. With Joelinton, Guimaraes, Gordon, Tonali, Barnes and Fabian Schar also finding the net in December, Newcastle have had players contributing goals from across the pitch, even if Alexander Isak (with eight) has provided the bulk of them.
“The players are playing in their best positions and look happy and comfortable,” Howe admitted on Monday. Murphy has more than played his part in Newcastle looking less like an unsolvable jigsaw.
Yet there has been one significant and consequential alteration, which involved deploying Tonali in a deeper, more central midfield role.
Previously, Howe had resisted this urge, believing Guimaraes to be his ideal No 6. The Brazilian has a natural inclination to go roaming in search of the ball even when fielded as a No 8 and Newcastle’s success under Howe had been delivered with Guimaraes as the orchestrator-in-chief.
The head coach’s vision had always been for one to operate as a nominal No 6 and the other a nominal No 8, given the freedom to interchange and dovetail, and his belief was that they could dominate Premier League matches as a duo.
By mid-November, the experiment had yet to ignite. For a period, it even appeared as if Newcastle were better served with Guimaraes or Tonali, rather than Guimaraes and Tonali, in the XI. Yet Tonali’s masterful display centrally against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup on October 30 belatedly influenced Howe’s thinking.
On November 30, at Selhurst Park, he swapped them from the start of a match for the first time.
For now at least, rather than Guimaraes as the No 6 and Tonali as the No 8, they complement each other far better the other way around. Tonali is offering greater protection for the back line, given his reading of the game and ability to thwart counters, and Guimaraes is influencing proceedings higher upfield.
GO DEEPER
The Eddie Howe tactical tweak that has revitalised Sandro Tonali and Newcastle’s form
While Newcastle laboured to a draw against Palace, Tonali himself appeared visibly more comfortable deeper. Across Newcastle’s last eight games in all competitions, Tonali has been the No 6 on seven occasions and they are unbeaten in those matches (five wins and two draws). Against Brentford, having cramped up against Liverpool three days previously, he started on the bench — and Newcastle lost.
Almost every single offensive metric has been bolstered, too. Per 90 minutes, Newcastle are scoring more (2.7 goals to 1.1), shooting more (15.7 shots to 13.1), shooting on target more (5.6 shots to 4.0), having more touches in the opposition box (32.9 to 27.5) and even averaging more possession (53.9 per cent to 49.7 per cent).
Three of those five league wins have also been achieved with a greater possession share. That had been the case in only two of their other four victories in 2024-25, highlighting Tonali’s effect on the team.
While, per 90, Guimaraes has had fewer touches (66.3 to 71.2) since the switch, he has been more directly involved in attacks higher up. He is shooting more (1.5 shots to 1.2), scoring more (0.15 goals to 0.0), assisting more (0.5 to 0.1) and creating more chances (1.8 to 0.9).
Tonali, on the other hand, is getting on the ball far more (77 touches to 52.8), passing more (54.3 successful passes to 27.5), passing more often in the opposition half (25.6 to 15.8) and, crucially, passing into the final third more (6.8 to 5.5).
Both goals at Old Trafford and the opener against Aston Villa began with Guimaraes and Tonali starting attacks and their increasing understanding of one another’s game has taken Newcastle to a new level.
Dubravka and the defence
If there has been an evolution stylistically, there has been a welcome return to solid norms at the back.
“The defensive side was probably the hallmark of our Champions League season, the way we defended, the number of clean sheets we got,” Howe said after the win at Old Trafford. “It’s great to see us return to those solid-looking performances where we’re not giving a lot away.”
The contrast pre and post-Brentford is stark.
Beforehand Newcastle were, per 90, conceding 1.4 goals and an expected goals against (xGA) — which measures the quality of shots — total of 1.4. Those figures have dropped to 0 and 0.53 respectively over the past four games. Every other top-flight team has conceded at least once during that time, while no side has a lower xGA (1.99). It may be a tiny sample size, but it is noteworthy.
Tonali has undoubtedly bolstered Newcastle out of possession. The team appears less susceptible in transition, given his athleticism and ability to cover space, while gaps are appearing less frequently between the defence and midfield.
Dan Burn has been colossal — arguably Newcastle’s player of the season — and his partnership with Schar has blossomed recently. Schar’s suspension for the next two matches is therefore a blow, given the lack of cover at right-sided centre-half, though Sven Botman’s imminent return is a boost.
Down the flanks, meanwhile, Lewis Hall has excelled, especially defensively. At right-back, Tino Livramento has been solid and, over the past two games, Kieran Trippier’s experience has further fortified Newcastle.
Curiously, this rediscovered impenetrability has come with Nick Pope, the undisputed No 1 goalkeeper, injured.
In four matches, Martin Dubravka has kept four straight clean sheets, one more than Pope has recorded across 15 top-flight starts this season.
Yet, astonishingly, he has only had to make four saves, just two of them from shots originating from inside the box. Dubravka’s average of one save is the lowest saves-per-90 ratio of any goalkeeper in the Premier League this season.
The contrast to last season is remarkable, when Dubravka was one of the top flight’s busiest goalkeepers, making four saves per 90 and yet still letting in 1.9 goals per game.
Even during the present campaign, Pope did not have such a sound defensive structure in front of him. When Pope was in the team, per 90, Newcastle’s expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) — which provides a modified xG value of on-target shots after the player shoots — was 1.46, he was facing 4.9 shots on target, making 3.6 saves and letting in 1.4. Since Dubravka has been in goal, those figures have dropped to 0.56, 1.0, 1.0 and zero.
“Martin’s not had a lot to do,” Howe said. “He’s distributed the ball really, really well. But goalkeeping-wise, because of how we’ve defended, he hasn’t had much to do.”
Martin Dubravka has been composed with the ball at his feet since coming in for the injured Nick Pope (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Last season, when Pope was absent for long spells, Newcastle suffered. They were failing to prevent the opposition from peppering shots on their goal, and they were saving too few of them. Right now, they are preventing the opposition from shooting and Dubravka is enjoying a relatively quiet life.
Confidence and a bit of help
It is one of the oldest truisms in sport: winning breeds winning.
Howe’s early days at Newcastle are a case in point; while his appointment had energised the club’s players, who appreciated his attention to detail and focused training sessions, they had won just once in 10 matches in all competitions and been kicked out of the FA Cup by Cambridge United when they travelled to Leeds United on January 22, 2022. Internally, there were mutterings.
A 1-0 victory at Elland Road “was the game that swung everything our way”, Howe later told Shearer in an interview for The Athletic.
That result gave Howe precious ammunition. He could tell his players, “Follow my methods and we will win”. Confidence surged.
Fast forward to Brentford and a bruising 2024 that brought an awful run of injuries, uncertainty off the pitch and a sense of stalled momentum. Howe needed something similar. While he spoke repeatedly about improving performances — consecutive victories in league and cup against Chelsea, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest offered a glimpse of potential — they did not bring uplift. Each draw or defeat dented morale and blunted his ammunition.
When Leicester tipped up at St James’ Park on December 14, they had patently not received the memo that detailed Newcastle’s discomfort at breaking opposition teams down. Instead of putting 11 men behind the ball and making life difficult for Howe’s players and potentially prompting the ire of the crowd, Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side were open and chaotic. That choice was baffling, but Newcastle’s tension unfurled. They blossomed.
Four days later, Howe named an unchanged team against Brentford in the Carabao Cup. Frank made five changes, lost Sepp van den Berg in the warm-up and then Ethan Pinnock, their captain, went off injured in the 14th minute. It was Brentford’s eighth defeat in nine away matches against top-flight opposition.
Ipswich the following weekend were naivety made flesh, Villa on Boxing Day had Jhon Duran dismissed in the first half as they slumped to their fifth consecutive away defeat in the Premier League, while Manchester United are, according to Gary Neville, their former player and now Sky Sports pundit, “the worst pound-for-pound football team in the country”. In other words, you can argue that Newcastle have played the right teams at the right time, profiting from it, improving and rolling on.
“You can overplay all these things,” a senior source tells The Athletic, speaking anonymously in order to protect relationships. “The main factor that has made a difference is winning the Leicester game and then backing it up so quickly.”
Low confidence had sapped Newcastle’s legs and deadened their brains. As it returned, they became sharper, quicker, more resolute. Against Brentford, Tonali opened the scoring after nine minutes, at Ipswich it was Isak in the first, against Villa it was Gordon in the second and at Manchester United it was Isak again in the fourth.
After scoring only once inside the opening 15 minutes of their first 13 Premier League games, they have scored five times in that period in their past six across all competitions. They are now the fast-starting team they always intended to be this season.
“It has such a good psychological effect on the game,” Gordon said after the Villa game. “It puts (the opposition) right on the back foot. But I think it helps the way we play. If we can score first and they start passing backwards and then we can press, press the keeper, get the crowd involved… It’s going to be a really difficult task to beat us from that moment on.”
In fact, it has proved impossible; Newcastle have not lost a game in which they have scored the opening goal this season.
Gordon now looks more like his old self, as does Guimaraes. Isak’s hot streak predates Newcastle’s uptick, but he has now scored in six consecutive league matches and has 10 in his past 10 top-flight appearances. The big players are not just turning up for big matches.
A lot of this is about mentality. For a drastic example of the opposite journey, you don’t have to look further than Manchester City, a team of immortals who are now mediocre. Newcastle and Howe have found a way through their own difficulty, sticking to founding principles but willing to be pragmatic, self-powered but helped by the inadequacy of others.
As they head into another big month — on the field, in the market — we shall soon find out how firmly set their recovery is, but they have given themselves a chance. As recently as 27 days ago, it looked well beyond them.
(Top photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
