NFL Week 18 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Healthy Ravens eye AFC North crown

Welcome to the Week 18 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of Jan. 2 at 1 p.m. ET. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: 11:15 a.m. ET, Jan. 2

Benchings and injuries | Weather report
Featured games | 2024 fantasy lessons
Fantasy football insights | Fantasy football player rankings

Benchings and injuries

Not many fantasy leagues play into Week 18, but if yours does, benched players make it challenging to construct a starting lineup for the championship game. To help, we’ve compiled a comprehensive rundown of players who will sit out or are injured that you can find here.

Among the more notable names, Sean McVay has already said Matthew Stafford will sit in Week 18, and he could be joined by star wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, as well as RB Kyren Williams. The Eagles’ Saquon Barkley is also expected to stand down in his pursuit of the NFL rushing record; Joshua Dobbs is taking over for Brock Purdy in San Francisco. Here’s a comprehensive list of playoff implications for each team and all the players who are either dinged up or who will/could sit out this week. We’ll also continue to update the injury table below as the week progresses.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

In his fantasy football strategy guide to weather, Jake Ciely notes that the passing game is impacted when temperatures drop below 35 degrees, as illustrated in the table below.

According to Rotowire’s aggregated NFL-related forecasts, five matchups could have sub-35 temperatures, including the Browns–Ravens (32 degrees), Bengals–Steelers (22 degrees), Bears–Packers (18 degrees), Bills–Patriots (30 degrees) and Giants–Eagles (34 degrees). The Texans–Titans matchup has an expected temperature of 42 degrees with a 70 percent chance of rain. Currently, there are no other games with a high likelihood of precipitation, but check back as game days approach.

Houston Texans (9-7) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-13)

Neither Houston nor Tennessee have anything to play for this week, making the game largely fantasy-irrelevant. It’s possible that C.J. Stroud and company (Nico Collins, Joe Mixon) start the game but are pulled at some point, making them (and their backups) impossible to rely on. Mason Rudolph will start for the Titans, meaning none of the QBs in this game are fantasy starters. If it rains, Tennessee WR Calvin Ridley is most impacted, as teams typically move to a run-heavy game script in precipitation. TE Chig Okonkwo, Ciely’s TE9, can be deployed as usual, given he’ll be a top target for short-yardage passes, which are often preferred in the rain. Diontae Johnson is expected to play his first game for the Texans in Week 18. I would expect he sees high usage so Houston can see what they have in him. But you can’t start him this week with so much uncertainty. Usually, it’s easy to depend on the run game in rain, but Tyjae Spears (concussion, doubtful) and Tony Pollard (questionable) likely also sit in this one.

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game.

Saturday night

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

• Venue: Acrisure Stadium — Pittsburgh, Pa.
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC

The Bengals-Steelers matchup has massive playoff implications. If the Ravens lose earlier in the day and the Steelers win, Pittsburgh clinches the AFC North and No. 3 seed. If Cincinnati wins, Denver loses and the Dolphins lose or tie, Cincinnati can make it to the playoffs. These teams will be firing on all cylinders, meaning Cincy’s Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are safe bets. Chase Brown was injured in Week 17, and if he’s sidelined, Khalil Herbert should lead the backfield, making him an RB2 with so many resting players and injuries.

For the Steelers, George Pickens is an easy start. The Steelers backfield has become a tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. Harris had 13 carries for 74 yards (5.7 YPC), and Warren had 11 for 71 yards (6.5 YPC) last week. But Warren has been the receiving back, with 41 yards receiving in Week 17 and 44 in Week 16. Tight end Pat Freirmuth has also exceeded 10 PPR points in the last four out of five games, and the Bengals’ defense is terrible. Even Russell Wilson, who has only exceeded 20 fantasy points twice this season, could have a fringe-QB2 game.

Read the full preview (coming Saturday).

Sunday afternoon

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) vs. Denver Broncos (9-7)

• Venue: Empower Field at Mile High — Denver, Colo.
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and a first-round bye, so they might rest key players this week. However, in the same division, the Broncos have a lot on the line. If they win or tie, they clinch a playoff berth. Otherwise, Denver’s playoff hopes rely on the Dolphins and Bengals, who (both) need to lose or tie for the Broncos to get in. Bo Nix has scored 20-plus fantasy points the last two weeks, and if the Chiefs rest players as expected, he could have another big game. Kansas City’s rush defense allows the fourth-fewest yards per game (98.31). However, Jaleel McLaughlin could still be a sneaky flex option after leading Denver’s backfield in Week 17 with 10 carries and 69 rushing yards.

Andy Reid has a history of resting players when this situation arises. Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco (who recently returned from injury) and Travis Kelce (an aging tight end) may sit. If Kareem Hunt plays, he should see loads of carries. One or two of Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins could still play, but you never know what you’ll get with Carson Wentz under center. Worthy has been the receiver to roster lately with 19.6, 20.5 and 22.9 PPR points in Weeks 15-17, respectively. He’s also averaged 10.33 targets per game in that span.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Minnesota Vikings (14-2) vs. Detroit Lions (14-2)

• Venue: Ford Field — Detroit, Mich.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock

The game of the week rightly comes on “Sunday Night Football” when the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions play for the NFC North division title, the NFC’s No. 1 seed, a first-round bye and home-field advantage. Fire up WR1 Justin Jefferson, WR2 Jordan Addison, RB1 Aaron Jones, QB1 Sam Darnold and TE1 T.J. Hockenson in this one. While Hockenson’s only scored over 10 PPR points four times since Week 9, injuries have decimated the Lions’ defense, and the over/under is a very high 56.5 points. All Vikings skill-position players could feast in this matchup.

The same goes for the Lions. QB1 Jared Goff, WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown, RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, TE1 Sam LaPorta and Jameson Williams (flex), who had 77 yards receiving and a touchdown last week, are all fantasy starters in Week 18. Minnesota’s defense is much stronger against the run than the pass, ranking second in rushing yards per game allowed and third in yards per rush allowed but 28th in passing yards per game allowed. But since Week 14, Gibbs has averaged five targets and 51 receiving yards per game, so even if they bottle him up at the line, he should still put up top-tier RB numbers.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

2024 fantasy football lessons

Michael Salfino looks back at the hard lessons fantasy players learned in 2024. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. was drafted 14th overall — just sheer madness.

Sam Darnold … or J.J. McCarthy?

Get Ciely’s full Week 18 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.