Is the 2024 NBA rookie draft class the worst in years? Through the first three months of the 2024-25 regular season, it’s certainly worth discussing.
The Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs each rely on their rookies to varying degrees. Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells are playing prominent roles for a deep Memphis team primed to make a playoff run. Stephon Castle’s role has diminished of late, but he has received decent playing time in San Antonio. Meanwhile, Reed Sheppard, the highest pick of the group, has been used sparingly in Houston.
So what do we know about these rookies? What have they shown so far in the NBA and what more work do they need to continue developing? We asked senior analyst and NBA draft expert Sam Vecenie, who’s spent months scouting and following this current crop of young players.
Houston Rockets
Kelly Iko: You were high on Sheppard during the predraft process, citing his floor spacing, defensive playmaking and overall half-court offensive IQ as reasons why his game should translate to the NBA. Through the first three months of the season, Sheppard is shooting less than 30 percent from 3, the Rockets hemorrhage points when he’s on the floor (7.2 per 100 possessions) and he’s still adjusting to NBA physicality.
What do you see when you watch him? And do you think there’s a spot for him in Ime Udoka’s tight rotation?
Sam Vecenie: Yeah, I’m not worried about Sheppard at this point. I didn’t see much of a path to a significant role for him this season due to the presence of Fred VanVleet and knowing the role Jalen Green would play on this team. Those two were always going to have heavy usage within this group, and this season was always going to be a physical adjustment for Sheppard.
Due to the size issues, you can’t play Sheppard with VanVleet — who, despite his shooting struggles, plays 35 minutes per game because he’s excellent at organizing the offense and communicating on defense while fighting through screens. VanVleet has still been worth about 4.5 wins this year according to DunksandThrees’s Estimated Plus Minus-based model, a number that has him currently ranked No. 11 in the NBA. That’s wildly aggressive and I wouldn’t have VanVleet near that mark, but he’s still an above-average starting point guard. And, even though Green has improved a bit as a defender this season, I wouldn’t trust a team’s backcourt decision-making if they were playing a rookie lead guard and Green.
The minutes were unlikely to be there for Sheppard this year unless he was a top-100 player in the league from the jump, which rookies rarely are. On top of that, the continued emergence of Amen Thompson, with his ability to be a secondary playmaker on the court, along with Alperen Şengün’s skill when Houston runs its offense through him, mean the Rockets can stagger the minutes of VanVleet, Green, Thompson and Şengün to ensure the team has enough creativity on the court. That reduces the impact of a true “backup point guard.”
Would it be better if the Sheppard who played in summer league showed up and his play demanded he enter the lineup? Of course. But it doesn’t feel like he’s had a settled role at any point this year, either. The peripherals of the on/off numbers don’t look that bad when you dig into the weeds. The team shoots better from both 2-point and 3-point range when he’s on the court. They have a better true shooting percentage. Overall, the shot quality is about the same, per PBPStats.com. The big things that seem to be dragging Sheppard’s on/off numbers down are rebounding and turnovers. The team gets fewer offensive and defensive rebounds when he’s out there, which isn’t his fault. They’re converting an inordinately low number of their second-chance opportunities when he’s on the court. The second issue is the team also turns the ball over more when he’s on the court. That could easily be construed as his fault given he’s the point guard, but he’s also only averaging 1.8 turnovers per 36 minutes. So that’s not particularly fair, either.
For me, the main scouting-based issues are on defense, where he struggles to guard anyone on the ball. For that, he needs to get stronger, which we knew was going to be an issue—especially when playing for a defensive-minded coach like Udoka. This is a real concern that needs targeted improvement.
But overall, none of this seems worrisome. Sheppard is a top-three pick drafted onto a team that has been in the top four in the Western Conference all season long. It’s hard for one-and-done rookies to establish themselves in roles under those circumstances. I’d preach patience at this point with Sheppard. My guess is he looks drastically better in 2025-26. The shooting, passing and ball-screen skills we saw in summer league still project well at the next level.
Iko: Would you advocate for Sheppard to time in the G League? Or is it better developmentally to spend his time with the Rockets, regardless of whether he’s getting consistent minutes or not?
Vecenie: Spending time in both arenas would make sense. Give him a few games here and there in Rio Grande Valley to get on-ball reps and let him play through some mistakes while getting adjusted to the increased athleticism of the pro game. Also, regularly bring him back to the Rockets to make sure he’s on the right track in terms of strength training while also giving him a chance to see the NBA game up close. It doesn’t feel like it has to be an either/or situation; the solution should include both.
Jaylen Wells has been a nice surprise for the Grizzlies this season. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
Memphis Grizzlies
Iko: Jaylen Wells is in a minor shooting slump, having missed six of his last eight 3s and having seven games this month shooting less than 32 percent. Does his defensive versatility outweigh anything else for you? What other areas of his offensive game do you want to see him improve in?
Vecenie: Wells has been a pleasant surprise for the Grizzlies, but he’s been asked to punch above his weight — particularly on defense. I love that he is willing to take on tough defensive matchups and fight on that end. But he hasn’t been overly effective in those situations, either. He’s ahead of where I expected, but he’s around league average according to most defensive metrics, and the eye test says similar. He’s good at filtering players to where they need to go and fighting through screens, but he’s not a ready-made player on that end.
The one thing I feel confident Wells can do is shoot. Even during this “slump,” if that’s what we’re calling it, he’s made 38.5 percent from 3 this month and gets treated mostly like a real shooter on the court. Opponents feel like he’s someone who will make shots if they don’t play him tightly. If the shots aren’t falling on a given night, it can be difficult to have him out there because he’s not much of a shot creator and not all that comfortable attacking closeouts in a threatening manner to score with a drive or floater, or to kick out with a pass. He moves it quickly, but sometimes that’s not enough. Wells probably needs an offseason of getting stronger, becoming even more dangerous on the move with his ability to come off screens as a shooter and continuing to work on his handle — remember, he’s a late bloomer and is just 21. It’s going to take some time.
Wells has been something like the team’s eighth- or ninth-best player in the aggregate (behind Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia, Brandon Clarke, Zach Edey and Scotty Pippen Jr.). The Grizzlies are deep, so that’s nothing to sneeze at and would be worthy of first-team All-Rookie at this point. On top of that, the Grizzlies continue to be snake-bitten by injuries, consistently opening up minutes for Wells. But it could lead to a fluctuating role as the season progresses if the team gets healthy.
Iko: Given that both Wells and Edey are playing prominent roles for a “contender” — the Grizzlies are fourth in net rating at the time of writing — does your evaluation scale read differently than if Memphis was a bottom feeder?
Vecenie: Every evaluation is situational, and that includes the organization you’re drafted into. Right now, there might not be a better developmental incubator in the NBA than Memphis. It’s the Grizzlies and Miami in the top group, and then everyone else. They empower their rookies to earn roles, and tend to draft older prospects on average, allowing these players to get on the court quicker to get acclimated to the league. They do a great job of simplifying roles and responsibilities, and allowing players to find their legs while still contributing.
In terms of the wins and losses, it says something to me that Edey and Wells are capable of handling minutes on a good team early on. The fact they’ve shown they can be valuable already says they’re in a good position to continue growing.
Iko: Since Edey’s return from a lengthy absence, his facilitating has looked sharper. He’s already shown to be a strong screen setter (and navigator defensively), a good rebounder and shot blocker, and is becoming more comfortable with taking 3s. Where do you see Edey’s trajectory and does he play a vital role for Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins in the playoffs?
Vecenie: Yeah, the screening was always my favorite skill for Edey and what would translate quickest. He’s an awesome screen-setter and has an excellent sense of how to maneuver his body to get contact on a defender. I’ve loved Edey’s rim protection when he’s in there against opposing bigs who can’t stretch the floor. If you can keep his 7-foot-4 frame with a 7-foot-10 wingspan at the rim, it’s difficult to score against him. His pairing with Jaren Jackson Jr. has been monstrous. When Edey is on the floor with Jackson, opposing teams score 101 points per 100 possessions.
The 100-million dollar question — literally — with Edey is how he performs in the playoffs. He’s struggled more often when forced to guard in space against teams that can stretch the floor against him at the center position or run several actions involving their bigs away from the ball. The team’s early game against Chicago, for instance, was a good example. But it’s also not an accident, in my opinion, that the Grizzlies have been better with Edey on the floor in every single game he’s played since Oct. 31. That’s 15 straight games where he’s had a positive plus-minus. Single-game plus-minus can be a misnomer, but when you start stacking up results like that, it says a lot.
The key with Edey will be matchup-based. There are matchups where he’ll be useful as a rookie, especially with his ability to rebound at the offensive end. With Edey on the court, the Grizzlies average more than 22 second-chance points per 100 possessions, per PBPStats. With Edey off the court, they average just 13.5. His ability to protect the rim and control that paint will be valuable against teams that can’t stretch the court. But I’d also be worried about using Edey as the primary matchup against someone like Nikola Jokić when Jokić has his jumper rolling in pick-and-pop situations, or against the Warriors when they’re playing Draymond Green at the 5 and running two-man game action with he and Stephen Curry. Teams will scout more intently against Edey in a playoff series and try to take advantage of his weaknesses. Proving he can adjust on the fly and find answers to those questions they’ll pose will be the key to playing him.
San Antonio Spurs
Iko: Since Jeremy Sochan returned to the lineup earlier this month, Stephon Castle has been sent back to the second unit but still spends the majority of time playing alongside the starters. (Interim head coach Mitch Johnson has run some in-game lineups with Castle at lead guard without Chris Paul, but his game doesn’t mesh as well with Charles Bassey or Zach Collins as it does with Victor Wembanyama —shocker!)
I’m interested in your thoughts on his shot profile. He’s attacking the paint a ton for a rookie — 91st percentile in rim rate — but only shooting 59 percent on such shots. This is in conjunction with his intentional outside shooting (averaging four 3s a game while shooting just 27 percent). How should his game change in the second unit, or should it change at all?
Vecenie: His game shouldn’t change that much, and I like him much more with Paul on the court than without him. I like him a bit more with the starters than with the bench unit. Castle isn’t a point guard to me — not at this stage, anyway. He profiles best as a secondary creator who plugs gaps and excels at everything that doesn’t involve shooting and scoring. He’s an awesome passer and a quick decision-maker, but I don’t trust him yet to be able to break defenders down consistently and make great kickout passing reads every possession. He does those things at times, but it tends to work better for him when the defense is already shifted and he can attack existing creases. I also like his cutting ability and general off-ball movement; it’s been a useful part of making him a usable offensive player despite the lack of shooting.
It’s difficult to have both Sochan and Castle on the court together with Paul. In the 167 minutes Sochan and Castle have played together, the team has gotten blitzed, losing by more than 10 points while scoring less than 100 points per 100 possessions. Paul’s addition has been superb this year, but he’s still not going to be responsible for creating a ton of his own offense at this stage of his career, and Sochan and Castle can’t shoot to help space the floor. In general, this Spurs roster as it’s currently developing with the young guys they’ve chosen to prioritize is going to be a fascinating experiment, both in the power of shooting development after the draft and in the power of floor spacing from the 5 given that we have never seen a true big take as many 3s as Wembanyama before and force his defender away from the rim.
I like that Castle is getting the 3-point reps. I like that he’s sharp and driving to the rim. But for his game to take the next step, shooting will be a big part of that.
Iko: Given that Castle has been more effective as an off guard — and Paul’s age — should the Spurs still have a long-term plan to make Castle their lead ballhandler? Or is he better in a complementary role? Would chasing an established star (eg. De’Aaron Fox) makes more sense?
Vecenie: I’m fine with developing Castle as a lead ball-handler and giving him that chance early on. His ball skills are strong, he’s good in ball screens and he’s a sharp passer. But ultimately, he’s probably going to profile best on the wing and playing as a secondary ball-handler. I’d be in favor of the Spurs chasing someone like Fox. That’s probably a conversation for another day, but a player like Fox who can defend his own position and is an elite shot creator would do wonders for this team as it builds around Wembanyama.
Iko: How have you graded the other aspects of Castle’s game?
Vecenie: I’ve loved Castle’s game outside of the scoring. The big thing with him is that he processes the game quickly on both ends of the court. He’s always in the right spot defensively in his rotations. He’s aggressive and physical at the point of attack. He’s switchable and tough, willing to body up when necessary on the interior. Offensively, he has a great understanding of space despite his shooting struggles. He knows the areas of the court he can cut into to create dangerous opportunities or force the defense to rotate toward his cut to open up another avenue for a teammate. He moves the ball quickly when he catches it and fires it around the horn. It never seems to stick with him. He makes quick decisions out of ball screens when required and when a teammate is open.
Castle is the kind of player you can win with. He proved it with Connecticut last year, and he’s proving it this year with the Spurs. If the shooting comes along, he has a chance to be a valuable player with All-Star upside. But even if it doesn’t get to the level he wants to reach, he’ll still be able to fill all of the non-scoring gaps necessary across the court that winning teams require.
(Top photo of Stephon Castle: Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
