What I'm seeing with the Broncos ahead of their biggest game in 9 years

Welcome to the biggest game for the Denver Broncos in nearly a decade.

Yes, you’ve heard that several times over the past month. The Broncos were 9-5 after a win against the Indianapolis Colts on Dec. 15. They needed only one win in their final three games to clinch their first playoff appearance since 2015. That made the game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec. 19 the most pivotal matchup for Denver in nine years. When that opportunity was squandered, those stakes were transferred to the Week 17 game at Cincinnati — and the Broncos fell short again.

That makes Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Kansas City Chiefs the latest, biggest game for the Broncos since they hoisted the Lombardi Trophy at the end of Super Bowl 50. This time, though, there are no reprieves left. Barring unlikely backdoor scenarios falling their way, the Broncos will miss the playoffs if they can’t win at home against a Chiefs team that will rest several key starters.

GO DEEPER

History says Broncos can’t underestimate Chiefs, starters or not, in must-win game

“We’ve got to win the game. Simple,” said wide receiver Courtland Sutton, who is trying to reach the playoffs for the first time in his seventh NFL season. “There’s nothing else that goes into it. We’ve gotta win the game. People say it’s never black and white. It’s black and white. We’ve got to win the game. That’s as simple as it is.”

Here’s what I’m seeing and hearing as the Broncos prep for Sunday’s win-and-in game against the Chiefs:

Offense must find steadier baseline

No touchdown pass in the NFL this season has flown further through the air than the ball Bo Nix launched 67 perfect yards to Marvin Mims last week in Cincinnati. Boom.

The picture-perfect throw — and a second spellbinding touchdown pass to Mims that came later — helped the Broncos force overtime against the Bengals, where they had two possessions. Those drives totaled six plays, 6 yards and two punts. Bust.

The Broncos in Week 16 against the Chargers scored touchdowns on their first three possessions, pairing an efficient ground game with some timely big strikes from Nix. Boom.

They punted on five of their next six drives and went three-and-out on three of them. Bust.

And so the pendulum has swung offensively for Denver during the stretch run. There are moments of brilliance followed by periods of bottoming out. The Broncos are in search of a steadier baseline on Sunday. They have gone three-and-out on 40.8 percent of their offensive possessions since Week 13, the second-highest rate in the league, behind the New York Giants (49.1), at times squandering the field-position edge that was such a critical component of Denver’s success earlier this season.

The issues have begun with first-down inefficiency. The Broncos rank 24th in expected points added per first-down play (-0.05) since Week 13. That has lit the fuse of an avalanche of third-and-long situations the Broncos don’t have the personnel to consistently overcome. The Broncos have needed to gain 7 yards or more on 60 percent of their third downs the past two weeks, according to TruMedia, the sixth-highest rate in the league.

“Obviously, you wish you were scoring every single drive, and every drive is a different story,” Broncos offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said. “It’s not easy to put your finger on one thing. First down, you don’t gain any yards, and now you’re off-schedule and then you don’t get that third down. As time goes on, we’re just going to be able to eliminate some of those dead periods in the offense, but it is encouraging when you see some of those stretches where we’re being more consistent. It’s execution, time on task and just getting better.”

The numbers suggest the Broncos need to be more aggressive to begin drives. Nix is averaging only 3.9 air yards per attempt on first downs the past two games, the second-lowest mark in the league. That aligns with the eye test for a screen game that has been far less effective than it was during Denver’s four-game winning streak following a November loss to the Chiefs.

Case in point was a second-and-9 play for the Broncos near midfield late in the fourth quarter against the Bengals. Cincinnati immediately recognized the screen for running back Javonte Williams and blew up the play for a 6-yard loss. Pressed into a third-and-15 situation in a tie game, Nix then threw an interception to linebacker Germaine Pratt. The Broncos also lost 1 yard on a screen pass to Mims on their second possession of overtime, setting up a third-and-long they couldn’t convert.

The Broncos have made strides offensively this season. But they aren’t yet explosive enough to survive the early down inefficiency that has contributed to the missed opportunities of the past two weeks.

Nix ready for biggest spot yet

If Nix’s demeanor at his news conference Wednesday is any indication, the rookie quarterback is in a good head space entering the biggest moment of his brief professional career. He has an opportunity to be the first rookie to quarterback the Broncos in the playoffs since John Elway in 1983 and the first overall since Peyton Manning in 2015. The stakes couldn’t be any higher, but Nix insisted Wednesday, quite convincingly, that he’s not feeling the squeeze as the Broncos prepare for their second matchup with the Chiefs this season.

“Our goal the past couple of weeks is to get to 10 (wins),” Nix said. “We have another opportunity to do that. I think this lifestyle, this situation, there are some quarterbacks who just kind of live with pressure. That’s just kind of second nature at this point. I believe pressure is a privilege, and I was taught that a long time ago. There’s no pressure without opportunity. Right now, that means we have a great opportunity to go do something special.”

It’s not just that projection of calm that has teammates confident in Nix’s ability to lead them to victory on Sunday. It’s the way he’s already handled pressure-packed situations this season. A turning point came in Week 10 in Kansas City. The Broncos trailed by two points when they got the ball back at their 40-yard line with just less than six minutes remaining. Nix converted two third-down attempts on the drive, including a 13-yard strike to Sutton on third-and-6 that set the Broncos up at the Kansas City 17-yard line. It should have been enough to win — Wil Lutz, of course, had his 35-yard game-winning attempt blocked by Leo Chenal — and it was enough to demonstrate his poise in pressure-packed moments.

That popped up again last week when Nix threw three touchdown passes in the second half to help force overtime, including a ridiculous 25-yard touchdown pass to Mims on fourth-and-1 with only eight seconds left.

“His toughness and his competitive spirit have carried him through probably his whole career, but certainly this year,” veteran right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “You could feel that from him as soon as he walked through the door. It’s a good feeling to know you’re never down and out because of the quarterback you have back there. He’s never going to stop fighting. He just lets it rip out there and I think that says a lot about him, especially in his rookie season. We’ve just got to continue to match that.”

Patience pays off for Mims

It wasn’t only that Mims wasn’t being targeted often at the beginning of the season. He was rarely on the field. He played only 76 combined offensive snaps through Denver’s first six games — 21 fewer than he played through the same point in his rookie season. When the Broncos traded Jerry Jeudy in the offseason, part of the stated reason was creating more room to use Mims’ elite speed in Denver’s offense. For the better part of the season’s first two months, that role never materialized. Mims may have been frustrated, but he never grew discouraged.

“The biggest thing for me was just knowing it was a long year,” said Mims, who has nearly twice as many receiving yards in the past four games (290) as he did in the previous 12 (162). “Especially offensively, with Bo being so young to start the season, there’s a lot to figure out. Especially when you have (rookie receivers) Troy (Franklin) and (Devaughn) Vele, too. When you have young guys in key situations, there’s a lot to figure out as far as personnel goes. … It’s a long season and you just have to keep your head up and keep going. At the end of the day, you don’t want to be the one guy who kind of pouted and all that stuff and, when he got his opportunities, didn’t make the most of them.”

The Broncos seem to have finally figured out the right balance for Mims, who has played at least 35 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in three out of the last four games after only reaching that threshold once in the first 12 games. His 108-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bengals helped the Broncos force overtime last week. His 95-yard reception helped swing momentum in a Week 13 win against the Browns. His 53-yard catch-and-run out of the backfield set up a touchdown in Week 16 against the Chargers.

To maximize the pressure Mims could exert from that backfield spot, Denver’s coaching staff determined he would need to run the ball in that role — at least occasionally — and keep defenses guessing. The diminutive wide receiver’s first reaction to being told near the season’s midway point that he would be adding ball-carrier responsibilities to his plate?

“I thought they were crazy, me being 180 (pounds) and going back there,” Mims said with a smile Thursday. “But it’s been cool. It’s been fun. It’s a different look, me being back there and staring into the eyes of linebackers. It’s certainly different, but it’s a lot of fun. I think it can serve a lot of mismatches. But it’s been fun to grow and do different things.”

What Pro Bowl results say about the Broncos

The Broncos had three players who were named starters for the AFC in the upcoming Pro Bowl Games: outside linebacker Nik Bonitto, cornerback Pat Surtain II and Mims, who was selected as the return specialist.

A few takeaways:

There is no doubting the worthiness of those three players. All have been consistently productive in their roles. Bonitto has 11 1/2 sacks, tied for the fourth-most in the league and the most for a Bronco since 2018. Surtain has consistently blanketed the opponent’s top receiver and tied a career-best this season with four interceptions. Mims leads the NFL in average punt return yardage at 15.7.

All three have also made game-changing plays in Broncos victories. Among those that stand out: Surtain’s Week 5 pick-six against the Raiders, Bonitto’s defensive touchdowns in back-to-back victories (Browns, Colts) and Mims’ 61-yard return in the fourth quarter against the Colts in Week 15 that preceded Denver’s go-ahead touchdown.

The Pro Bowl selections are also a testament to general manager George Paton’s performance in the NFL Draft since arriving in 2021. His first pick that year, at No. 9, was used on Surtain, who has now been named to the Pro Bowl three times in his four seasons and will almost certainly notch his second All-Pro honor later this month.

Bonitto (2022) and Mims (2023) were both the final picks in the second round of their respective drafts. Quinn Meinerz, whom Paton selected in the third round in 2021, was named a first alternate for the AFC at guard for the second straight year. The Broncos acquired outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper in the seventh round of that same draft. Cooper wasn’t selected as a Pro Bowl alternate, but picking up a half-sack on Sunday to get to 10 for the season would be a solid consolation prize — so long as it is accompanied by a playoff-clinching victory.

Bonitto and Mims were the gems of Paton’s second and third draft classes, respectively, but they’ve also found key players from those classes in starting center Luke Wattenberg, defensive backs Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis and JL Skinner and linebacker Drew Sanders. The 2024 class Paton put together alongside Payton has already produced starters/key contributors in Nix, outside linebacker Jonah Elliss, running back Audric Estime and wide receivers Vele and Franklin. The development of those players paired with Thursday’s Pro Bowl announcements is a testament to the drafting and developing that has helped the Broncos move to the doorstep of the postseason.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Pro Bowl Games rosters: Jayden Daniels, Sam Darnold headline first timers

The results also gave a window into where the Broncos must prioritize their efforts as they continue to build the roster. In addition to the three players who were selected to the Pro Bowl as starters, Denver had eight other players who were named alternates: Meinerz and long snapper Mitchell Fraboni (first alternates); kicker Wil Lutz and offensive tackle Garett Bolles (third); Nix, defensive lineman Zach Allen and fullback Michael Burton (fourth); and safety Brandon Jones (fifth).

The Broncos did not have a wide receiver, tight end or running back that landed on the long lists of alternates. There is an argument for Sutton as an alternate — he’ll almost certainly go over the 1,000-yard receiving mark Sunday and can reach a $500,000 incentive with 82 more yards — but it’s hard to take issue with any omission among Denver’s skill position players.

Sutton remains a reliable and consistent target. Mims has become an integral part of the offense as a deep-threat receiver and multi-tool weapon out of the backfield. Running back Jaleel McLaughlin has had nice moments as the team’s top rusher the past month. And Vele and Franklin have had impressive flashes as rookies.

But losses to the Chargers and Bengals, whose top receiving weapons gave Denver fits, crystallized Denver’s need for more help around Nix. It is paramount that the Broncos add a player this offseason with the Joker traits Payton longs for in his offense, a role that typically fits a tight end or running back. They could use a top-flight receiver, particularly with Sutton entering the final year of his contract next season and another potential stalemate over its terms this offseason. The draft development will remain a huge part of what the Broncos are doing, but the bottom line is there needs to be a big infusion of offensive skill talent if they are going to take another step around their young quarterback next season.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Broncos defensive front has been NFL’s best this season — and must deliver once more

Let’s close on a final note about the most obvious snub for the Broncos in the Pro Bowl process. Few interior defensive linemen have been better this season than Allen. Even if his 3 1/2-sack game against the Bengals came too late to factor into the voting equation — that shouldn’t be the case, by the way — he has been the leader among players at his position in pressures and run stops all season. He’s the engine of a defense that has led the NFL in sacks for most of the season and set a franchise record in the category (58) after taking down Joe Burrow seven times last week.

Naming Allen the fourth alternate was a determination that there were six other interior defensive linemen in the AFC alone this season who were better than him. No chance.

Allen’s reaction, posted on his X account Thursday: “Hopefully we can get All-Pro and a Super Bowl.”

First, the Broncos have to get into the dance.

(Photo: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)



Sumber

ARTIKEL TERKAITDARI PENULIS