Projecting each NFL playoff team’s odds to win Super Bowl, with wild-card matchup analysis

The NFL playoffs are here. Are we destined for a Detroit Lions-Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl showdown, or will one of the teams playing on wild-card weekend pull off an upset en route to a shot at the title?

Jeff Howe breaks down each of the six wild-card weekend matchups before The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock, reveals the odds each team has to win the Super Bowl.

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NFL playoff schedule: Game times, channels for wild-card weekend

AFC

No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4) vs. No. 7 Denver Broncos (10-7)

The Bills are coming off a productive pseudo-bye week after resting their stars and costing the Patriots the No. 1 pick in the draft, but it’s now time to focus on the actual big picture.

They’ve won five consecutive AFC East titles, but they’ve only won a single divisional-round playoff game during that stretch. MVP frontrunner Josh Allen and the Bills need to prove they can carry over this wave of regular-season success into the playoffs.

Allen has been dominant with a new supporting cast, and that’ll have to continue as the Bills also intentionally got younger on defense. But the defense has been vulnerable, notably giving up 86 points last month in back-to-back games against the Rams and Lions.

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In the teams’ only meeting of the Sean Payton era, the Broncos pulled off a stunning 24-22 road victory in 2023 on Monday Night Football. While the Broncos are viewed as overachievers — they snuck into the playoffs by breezing past the Chiefs’ backups in Sunday’s season finale — they can be expected to play tough, smart football, and the Bills will have to earn it.

The Broncos’ competition cannot be overlooked as it relates to their success. Their .395 strength of victory was the fourth lowest among all playoff teams, and before blowing out the Chiefs’ backups, the Broncos’ .340 strength of victory ranked last among that set. They finished the season 2-5 against playoff opponents, including a win against Carson Wentz’s Chiefs.

The Bills weren’t much better (2-3) against playoff opponents, but their victories came against Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs and the Detroit Lions.

• Bills’ chances to win Super Bowl: 10.7%
• Broncos’ chances to win Super Bowl: 1.4%

No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5) vs No. 6 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

You won’t have to look too far to figure out which wild-card opponents hate each other the most. The Steelers are 3-1 against the Ravens in the playoffs, but these AFC North rivals have been heading in opposite directions of late.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson could be on the verge of his third MVP, but he has bigger goals in mind. It starts with securing his third career playoff victory after a 2-4 start. Jackson has completed 57.4 percent of his postseason passes for an average of 220.7 yards per game, six total touchdowns and six interceptions. He’s also averaged 86.8 rushing yards per game with three touchdowns.

While the Ravens defense initially took a step back without coordinator Mike Macdonald, they’ve looked vastly improved over the final two months of the season. Additionally, Baltimore’s .520 strength of victory is easily the highest in the field, as it’s the only mark north of .475. The Ravens were 7-3 against playoff teams, including 1-1 against the Steelers.

As for Jackson, he set career bests with 4,172 passing yards, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions (among seasons as the full-time starter) and a 0.8 interception percentage. His 915 rushing yards were his third most ever for a QB, and he tacked on four rushing scores, though that number surely would have been higher if not for running back Derrick Henry (1,921 rushing yards, NFL-high 16 touchdowns).

The Steelers have historically had Jackson’s number, but he had a rare strong day against them in Week 16 by going 15-of-23 passing for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

The Steelers will have a plan for Jackson, but can they execute it? They’re riding a four-game losing streak — the Packers, with two straight losses, are the only other team entering the playoffs on a multi-game slide — with three defeats coming against playoff teams and a Bengals team that was on the fringe. And until that 19-17 loss to the Bengals on Saturday, they weren’t competitive in the prior three losses.

While the Steelers have struggled to score — they’ve fallen shy of 20 points in six of their past eight games — the defense hasn’t been as dominant as it was for most of the first half of the season. Without that elite defense, the Steelers aren’t nearly as a formiddable as they once looked.

• Ravens’ chances to win Super Bowl: 8.1%
• Steelers’ chances to win Super Bowl: 1.6%

No. 4 Houston Texans (10-7) vs No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Texans appear to be the playoff team most vulnerable to opening with a loss at home. But hey, the organization has been in this situation before, and they’ve only gone one-and-done in two of their seven postseason appearances.

The offensive line has presented issues all season, yielding 52 sacks on quarterback C.J. Stroud. The 2023 first-rounder had an incredible rookie season, but this year was marred by poor protection that’s exacerbated inaccuracy issues and numbers that were down across the board. And as the Texans remain on the upward swing of their rebuild, they haven’t been able to overcome injuries to several key stars, especially wideout Stefon Diggs.

The Texans were 1-5 against playoff teams, and they failed back-to-back tests against the Chiefs and Ravens in the home stretch of the season.

You’d better believe Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh will have a plan for this offense. The Chargers allowed the fewest points in the league this season, while the Texans scored 41 total points in their three games out of their Week 15 bye before a mixture of starters and backups got through the Titans, 23-14, in the finale.

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Chargers exact revenge against Raiders to claim fifth seed and head into playoffs

The Chargers have a chance to prove this is a different era with Harbaugh. They’re back in the playoffs for the first time in two years, when they blew a 27-0 lead to the Jaguars, and they’re looking for their first postseason victory in six years.

They’re well-balanced, not just defined by quarterback Justin Herbert’s huge arm. Herbert’s numbers were pedestrian compared to his career highs, but he’s managed games, controlled the offense from the line and gotten help from the ground attack while young receivers like Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have grown up around him.

• Texans’ chances to win Super Bowl: 1.6%
• Chargers’ chances to win Super Bowl: 3.8%

Chances to win the Super Bowl

NFC

No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) vs. No. 7 Green Bay Packers (11-6)

The Eagles beat the Packers, 34-29, in the league’s second game of the regular season down in Brazil. If that back-and-forth affair was any indication, this could be the best matchup of the opening weekend.

These are a couple postseason regulars. The Eagles are in the dance for the seventh time in eight years, including four in a row, and they’ve had a boom-or-bust factor in those appearances. They’ve made two Super Bowl appearances, including one victory, since 2017, but they’ve only mustered one playoff win in the other four appearances over that span.

The Packers are back in the postseason for the fifth time in six years, including both of quarterback Jordan Love’s seasons as the full-time starter. Love injured his right elbow Sunday against the Bears, causing numbness in his hand, but coach Matt LaFleur indicated the QB should be good to go this week.

There have been flashes this season when the Packers have looked like juggernauts on the verge of graduating into the NFL’s elite group of Super Bowl contenders. Love and LaFleur’s well-balanced offense ripped off five consecutive 30-point games from Weeks 12-16, while Jeff Hafley’s defense was a similarly dangerous unit. But they’ve lost two in a row, and they were 2-5 against playoff teams.

The Eagles got something of a bye in Week 18 as they rested their stars against the Giants, although they won’t be out of the woods until quarterback Jalen Hurts clears the concussion protocol. Running back Saquon Barkley has drawn MVP consideration with NFL highs of 2,005 rushing yards and 2,283 scrimmage yards to go along with 15 total touchdowns, while receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for 135 catches, 1,912 yards and 15 scores.

But not only will the Packers have to contend with Hurts and the Eagles stars, they’ll also have to find a way to fend off a defense that’s ranked near the top of the league in almost every significant category.

• Eagles’ chances to win Super Bowl: 10.7%
• Packers’ chances to win Super Bowl: 4.5%

No. 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5)

The Bucs didn’t make it easy on themselves with a midseason four-game losing streak, but they have since won six of seven. Even still, the loss came in Week 16 against the Cowboys to relinquish the NFC South lead to the Falcons; then they needed to come back from a 10-point deficit Sunday against the Saints.

Even through the times when the Bucs have looked overly vulnerable to a confounding defeat, they’ve had equally incredible levels of brilliance. They were 4-3 against playoff teams, including wins against the Lions, Eagles, Commanders and Chargers.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield just delivered the best season of his career, vaulting offensive coordinator Liam Coen into contention for a head coaching gig. Even without receiver Chris Godwin, Mayfield, wideout Mike Evans and the emerging role players have fielded one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL.

The defense has been a concern, particularly in coverage due to injuries. That’s not ideal with quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin on the other sideline.

The Commanders have been one of the best stories of the season after new owner Josh Harris cleaned house and hired general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn before they drafted Daniels. They won a dozen games this season after totaling 12 wins in the previous two years, and they’ve got their first winning record since 2015, their first double-digit win total since 2012 and their first 12-win season since 1991, which was the last time they won the Super Bowl.

No pressure on Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, to deliver the franchise’s first playoff win in 19 years. Coincidentally, that victory came against the Buccaneers.

The Commanders closed the season on a five-game winning streak, as they impressively recovered from a three-game skid that should have been a real threat to sink such a young team. They’re vulnerable on defense, especially against the pass, but the Commanders have taken on the cool demeanor of both Quinn and Daniels, a trait that has helped them deliver in so many clutch moments this season.

• Buccaneers’ chances to win Super Bowl: 4.4%
• Commanders’ chances to win Super Bowl: 3.2%

No. 4 Los Angeles Rams (10-7) vs. No. 5 Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

Sean McVay welcomes his former offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell, back to Los Angeles in an intriguing Monday night matchup.

The Rams had the biggest recovery of any team in the field, starting 1-4 before winning nine of 11 to lock up the NFC West. They sat their stars Sunday in a loss to the Seahawks, which may prove costly because they’re now opening the postseason against an NFC superpower — and one that is ticked off about getting sent on the road after conceding the NFC North on the final day of the season.

The question: What version of the Rams will be on display? While they’ve improved tremendously on defense, quarterback Matthew Stafford has been up and down. He had some early-season issues with red-zone turnovers, then turned into the best version of himself for a couple months before he faded over his final three starts with the rest of the offense.

But the defense has been much better since allowing 27.8 points through five games. They allowed 19.7 points from there on, not including an unbalanced finale against the Seahawks, which paved a way for those wins when the offense was slumping.

It’ll take everything against the Vikings, who are coming off their worst performance of the season in a crushing loss to the Lions. So how will they react? Well, the Vikings suffered their first loss of the season to the Lions, then dropped a 30-20 meeting with the Rams a week later. They’ve got work to do to prevent a sequel that’d have far more significant consequences.

While there’s concern over Stafford’s recent stretch, the former Super Bowl champion has a history of being at his best in the postseason. Vikings QB Sam Darnold, on the other hand, has never played in the playoffs and was as erratic as he’s been all season Sunday in Detroit.

Darnold was scattershot with his accuracy, couldn’t handle the rush and was challenged by the environment. It won’t be as hostile in Los Angeles, but it’ll be the biggest stage of Darnold’s career with a potential nine-figure payday on the horizon.

Darnold doesn’t need to be great to beat the Rams, but he does need to hit the throws he’s expected to make. Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula will try to borrow some of the Lions’ looks to further confuse Darnold.

Minnesota’s Brian Flores, perhaps the best defensive coordinator in the league this season, will attempt to do the same to his counterparts. This could be a good defensive battle with the cleanest offense scraping by with a win.

• Rams’ chances to win Super Bowl: 4.1%
• Vikings’ chances to win Super Bowl: 6.7%

(Photo of Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)



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