What is 49ers QB Brock Purdy worth? A complete breakdown as contract negotiations begin

There’s no question the San Francisco 49ers want to sign Brock Purdy to a long-term contract.

The quotes from the organization in recent days haven’t been merely supportive, they’ve been generously so.

“We have interest in Brock being around here for a long, long time,” general manager John Lynch said.

“I plan on being with Brock here the whole time I’m here,” coach Kyle Shanahan said.

“Brock Purdy — he’s the man,” linebacker Fred Warner, the team’s de facto locker room spokesman, said Sunday on ESPN’s “Postseason NFL Countdown.” “He will be the 49ers quarterback for a very, very, very long time with plenty of Super Bowl rings on his fingers.”

The question now becomes how much — and for how long — to pay him. Counting the playoffs, Purdy has started 42 games, many in which he had arguably the NFL’s top weaponry surrounding him, and others, especially during the most recent season, in which those weapons were damaged and on the sideline.

As a result, we now have a deeper understanding of where the quarterback excels and struggles. The following are big-picture takeaways about Purdy and how the 49ers feel about him as the team and his representatives begin negotiations.

Purdy has been Shanahan’s best quarterback with the 49ers

The first thing to keep in mind is that the 49ers have been planning to pay Purdy for a while now. It’s never been a nagging question in their minds.

Shanahan has said that Purdy’s first three meaningful games in 2022 — against the Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks — assured him the then-rookie would be able to run the offense for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. When he went back and studied Purdy’s rookie performance following the season, Shanahan was convinced he could be the long-term starter.

“You feel that way during the ride, but you’ve always got to go back and check things,” Shanahan told The Athletic in 2023. “And when I checked (the film) I felt even stronger than I did during the season.”

Purdy won playoff games against the Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys as a rookie. He out-dueled Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in his first start. And he beat the Seahawks in Seattle on a short week while dealing with broken ribs.

The most memorable game for Shanahan, however, was Purdy’s first test, when he came in for injured Jimmy Garoppolo against the Dolphins in Week 13. Purdy was a late seventh-round pick who began the season as the No. 3 quarterback, and when Garoppolo was hurt on the opening drive — it was immediately clear it was a serious injury — the reaction on the sideline was that the 49ers’ season was over.

By game’s end, Purdy had eliminated that sense of remorse. Though Garoppolo had been playing well, there was no dip with Purdy despite the Dolphins throwing plenty of blitzes at him.

“The biggest throw was the one to (George) Kittle,” Shanahan recalled. “I think it was the third-down one. It was like third-and-(10). They all-out blitzed him and he got hit and he threw it to the right spot. It was a hell of a play. After the game, it was, ‘Holy s— did that guy play good!’”

One of Kyle Shanahan’s top Brock Purdy moments came on a blitz in his first true test — when he replaced injured Jimmy Garoppolo in the 1Q against the Dolphins in ’22. He beat the blitz on this 19-yarder to George Kittle late in 2Q, then threw a TD pass to Christian McCaffrey just before the half.

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— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows.bsky.social) January 14, 2025 at 3:51 PM

The throw to Kittle gained 19 yards and underscored everything Shanahan likes in Purdy. He’s hard to rattle, is a fast processor and is aggressive with his throws. Since 2022, he ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt and yards per completion and his 104.9 passer rating ranks second among qualifying quarterbacks.

The numbers also show he’s been Shanahan’s best quarterback in San Francisco.

One key stat is expected completion percentage. Shanahan has an aggressive passing attack, one in which he believes there are options in every scenario, on every dropback. Nothing frustrates him more than a quarterback picking the wrong target and leaving potential yards untapped.

Next Gen Stats’ expected completion percentage looks at a receiver’s separation and other variables to predict a quarterback’s success on a given play. Of the six quarterbacks under Shanahan who have attempted at least 100 passes, Purdy is the only one who’s done better than expected.

Which is to say that while the other five quarterbacks have underdelivered for Shanahan, Purdy has overdelivered.

2024 was Purdy’s most challenging season

On paper, the 2024 49ers had an imposing quartet of wide receivers: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall.

The number of games in which all four were available in 2024: zero. The group missed 20 full games over the course of the season and two wideouts, Aiyuk and Pearsall, missed most of training camp, which meant that they were still rounding into form when they got on the playing field. Meanwhile, Purdy’s fourth-most targeted player from 2023, running back Christian McCaffrey, appeared in just four games.

It’s no surprise then that nearly all of Purdy’s passing statistics fell in 2024. A year after throwing 31 touchdowns (third most in the NFL), he had 20 (tied for 15th).

“There was just nothing consistent from a skill standpoint,” said Brett Whitefield, the owner of Fantasy Points Data analytics. “That messes up chemistry. You’re going to see a drop in accurate throw rate, a drop in completion percentage. And it’s ultimately going to lead to Brock scrambling a little bit more.”

Aiyuk’s disjointed season seemed to have a particularly big impact.

On the 49ers, the rule of thumb is that Aiyuk has big games when opponents play a lot of press-man coverage while Samuel struggles versus press-man but excels against zone defenses. A year ago, for example, Pro Football Focus ranked Aiyuk as the third-best wide receiver in the NFL against press-man. Samuel ranked 94th.

With Aiyuk at peak strength in 2023, the 49ers saw the third-fewest press-coverage plays in the NFL. During the most recent season, however, defenses were more aggressive, and the 49ers saw the 12th-most press-coverage plays in the league.

“Teams didn’t seem to be afraid of the 49ers’ weapons,” PFF analyst Dalton Wasserman said. “Brandon Aiyuk was their best route runner. And him being less effective (early on), and then out — I think that caused a domino effect on the rest of the receiving corps.”

Brandon Aiyuk’s injury and disjointed season changed the way teams could attack the 49ers and Brock Purdy. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)

There were bright spots.

Jennings took over for Aiyuk at the X-receiver spot and became Purdy’s top wide receiver target, including in press-man coverage. His 34 catches in press-man coverage were the third most in the league, putting him among the likes of the Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and the New York Giants’ Malik Nabers in that category.

Pearsall, meanwhile, improved against press coverage as the season went on and finished 61st in PFF’s ranking. His 141-yard game in Week 17 came against a Detroit Lions defense that largely played press-man coverage.

As for Samuel, his PFF ranking against press coverage improved — slightly — from 94th to 92nd and he caught just 11 passes in press-coverage scenarios all season.

“And when I say 11 catches, you’re talking about him being in the neighborhood of guys like Calvin Austin and Allen Lazard,” Wasserman said. “He’s among a bunch of guys who don’t really separate from press coverage.”

Other analytics reach a similar conclusion. For example, Next Gen Stats’ separation data measures the space between the target and defender when the ball arrives. The league-wide average in 2024 was 3.5 yards. Purdy’s average was 3.1 yards, the fourth-smallest window in the NFL and nearly a full yard less than, say, the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson who had one of the widest windows this season.

“Defensively, the philosophy was, ‘We’re going to challenge every throw, we’re going to compete at the catch point of every pass. And eventually we believe your quarterback will make a mistake,’” Whitefield said. “And I think Brock got a little bit of that treatment this season. He doesn’t have the biggest arm in the world. He’s an accurate thrower but he’s not a power thrower.”

Purdy’s shortcomings were highlighted in 2024

One rule about Purdy: Don’t get him wet.

He’s struggled in the four games in which there was precipitation at kickoff, including 2024 losses to the Buffalo Bills (snow) and Los Angeles Rams (rain). His completion percentage is 48.7 percent in those contests and his passer rating, a sterling 110.7 in good weather, nosedives to 55.9 in the slop.

The 49ers are 1-3 in precipitation games Purdy has started with the lone win against the Green Bay Packers in last season’s playoffs, a game in which the 49ers were sluggish early when it was raining but found their footing later when it was not.

Brock Purdy has been known to struggle when playing in inclement weather. (Cary Edmondson / Imagn Images)

“I mean, I think any person that’s throwing an object in the rain, it makes it wet, the grip isn’t as good,” Purdy said following a rainy game loss to the Rams in which he completed 45 percent of his throws. “I think for me it’s been more about learning how to change the motion a little bit and throw differently in the rain. You can’t just get back there and be as violent as you normally are.”

Purdy fell to the end of the seventh round in 2022 because teams were skeptical about his size — 6 feet 5/8 inches with 9 1/4-inch hands — and his limited arm strength, both of which seem to be exacerbated in the rain.

Purdy also has had a lot of passes batted at the line of scrimmage. Over the past two seasons, per TruMedia, he’s had 20 such throws, which ties him with 5-10 Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray for the sixth most in that span.

Perhaps most significant is that Purdy’s interception rate, already high, increased slightly in 2024, likely due to the tight coverage described above. He finished tied for the fourth-most interceptions in the league, 12, one more than he had a year ago.

PFF’s Wasserman noted that Purdy hasn’t been particularly good on tight-window throws, attempts on which there is a yard or less of separation between the defender and target. It’s the kind of throw at which big-armed passers like Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson and Sam Darnold excelled in 2024. Over the past two seasons, Purdy ranks 28th in PFF’s passing grade on those types of throws.

“Purdy’s never been particularly great at it,” Wasserman said. “It all relates to the question: What is it he can and can’t do?”

Purdy had to lean on other strengths

Purdy showed glimpses of his athleticism and ability to escape collapsing pockets in 2022 and 2023. He had to rely on those skills even more in 2024 due to the lack of open receivers.

He held onto the ball longer and ran the ball more than he did the season prior, finishing with 323 rushing yards. His 33 first downs were the seventh most among NFL quarterbacks and his five rushing touchdowns led the 49ers, a comment on the team’s red-zone running game in 2024 as much as Purdy’s running ability.

He also made plays while on the run. Over the past two seasons, according to TruMedia, Purdy has thrown 11 touchdowns when outside the pocket, which ties him with the Rams’ Matthew Stafford and is one more than the Ravens’ Jackson.

And, of course, there are attributes that can’t be found in a database.

Purdy is well-liked and well-respected in the 49ers locker room with teammates noting his leadership skills were more pronounced this past season, beginning with the start of OTAs.

He’s also one of the players who, along with teammates Kittle, Curtis Robinson, Spencer Burford and Trent Taylor, makes regular appearances at the 49ers’ Tuesday community events. Purdy began doing that in 2022 when he was a third-string rookie, which isn’t unusual. The players who show up at children’s hospitals, elementary schools and Christmas shopping sprees usually are young guys who don’t play much. What’s rare is that he’s continued to do so since becoming a starter.

“That’s him,” Kittle said. “He’s never putting on a show, he’s never putting on an act. He’s consistently himself every single day.”

And no one in the locker room seems to begrudge the fact that Purdy soon could become the highest-paid 49er in team history.

“Yeah, I think the first thing he’ll do is buy a bunch of chains and expensive cars and houses,” Warner said on locker clean-out day, drawing laughs. “Nah, I think he’s for sure built the right way. I can’t think of anybody right now that you’d want to give that amount of money to more than him.”

(Top photo: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)