NBA Lookahead: How the West might be won; James Harden trade rewind

Every Thursday, I’ll be taking you through the big story heading into the weekend. Or maybe the weirdest story? Or maybe just something that makes me laugh and I think will make you laugh too. Essentially, if you’re subscribed to The Bounce and reading every day, we’re going to have the same fun here as we do in that space.

On top of that, I’ve culled the weekend schedule for you to know what to pay attention to. Weird bad streaks against teams? Beefs you need to track? Just fun games with matchups you may not have known were happening? We’ve got that for you. On top of that, we’ll have a good old-fashioned Throwback Thursday to hit you with that feel-good nostalgia.

Let’s have fun by starting with what’s possible in the Western Conference.

Story to watch: Who’s challenging OKC?

The West is pretty fascinating, both in terms of the basketball product on the floor and a thought process for how things might play out. We’re nearly halfway through the season, and it looks a lot different than the West we saw a year ago.

Last season, we assumed the Denver Nuggets were going to own the conference for a few years, even as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves were battling Denver in a three-team race for the No. 1 seed. The Thunder ended up winning 57 games — tied with Denver — and took the top seed. The Wolves finished with 56 wins and secured the No. 3 seed.

In the playoffs, Minnesota shocked the world by taking down Denver in Game 7 a mile in the sky. And OKC didn’t make it out of the second round, losing to the Dallas Mavericks, the eventual West champs. Fast-forward a year, and the West looks deep but lopsided. The Thunder are the class of the conference at 33-6. They’re flirting with a 70-win pace and are already 6 1/2 games ahead of the second team in the conference. Minnesota is off in Play-In Squid Game right now, and Denver is climbing back toward the No. 2 seed area.

What should we make of this West? Who are actually threats to taking down an OKC team that didn’t make a deep run last year but still boasts the best roster? Do we take teams like Houston and Memphis seriously? Are the struggling teams like Minnesota and Golden State still viable? Let’s dig into the West and use input from our readers at The Bounce, aka Bouncers, who filled out a poll on this over the last day or so.

Teams in the top six

Houston Rockets: 27-12 | 114.0 offensive rating (tied-ninth) | 107.5 defensive rating (third) | plus-6.5 net rating (tied-fifth)

  • How could they do it? Their defense is spectacular. Ime Udoka has multiple guys like Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith Jr. to unleash on key offensive opponents. And the offense is far more efficient than you might think. They pound the offensive glass and don’t turn it over.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? Even though their offense is top 10, this team can’t shoot. The Rockets are tied for 27th in 2-point percentage and 28th 3-point percentage. That puts them 26th in effective field goal percentage. You have to make shots to win the West.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 93.7 percent said they can’t beat the Thunder.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +1700
  • Can they actually do it? It feels like the Rockets are a year and a trade away from actually pulling this off, but this is a good team. It’s a no for now.

Memphis Grizzlies: 26-15 | 116.8 offensive rating (fifth) | 109.8 defensive rating (fifth) | plus-7.0 net rating (fourth)

  • How could they do it? This team is good on both ends of the floor, and Ja Morant is the type of superstar poised to take a postseason leap. If the Grizzlies get health from the roster and the young role players step up, we could see a surprise run similar to Dallas’ last season.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? Health and turning the ball over. The Grizzlies are way too careless with the ball and have had a lot of availability issues.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 91.2 percent said they can’t beat the Thunder.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +1000
  • Can they actually do it? I think it’s a fun story, but I’ll say no for now. They need a little more help for Morant.

Denver Nuggets: 24-16 | 117.3 offensive rating (fourth) | 113.3 defensive rating (tied-17th) | plus-4.0 net rating (seventh)

  • How could they do it? Well, this Nikola Jokić fellow seems pretty up for the challenge. If the Nuggets are healthy, Jamal Murray plays well and the bench is at least consistent, they can ride Jokić’s brilliance to winning the West again.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are massive question marks when it comes to being consistent and reliable. That and the lack of depth puts a lot of pressure on the team defense.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 58.9 percent said they can’t beat the Thunder.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +700
  • Can they actually do it? I think they can. They’ve played excellent basketball, and there is no answer for Jokić in the West. They just can’t be apocalyptic in the minutes he’s not on the floor.


Nikola Jokic looks to attack against Kevin Durant last month in Denver. (Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

LA Clippers: 22-17 | 110.3 offensive rating (22nd) | 107.7 defensive rating (fourth) | plus-2.7 net rating (ninth)

  • How could they do it? Obviously, Kawhi Leonard has to be healthy and great. James Harden can’t do the Harden thing in elimination games where he disappears. And they’d have to consistently space the floor around their stars.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? Leonard has played four total playoff games in the last three postseasons.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 99.0 percent said they can’t beat the Thunder.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +2000
  • Can they actually do it? No. Leonard is one of my favorite players ever, but I just don’t see this being the season he’s finally healthy in the playoffs.

LA Lakers: 21-17 | 113.0 offensive rating (12th) | 115.7 defensive rating (24th) | minus-2.7 net rating (21st)

  • How could they do it? They probably need a trade to add more threats to the roster, but the Lakers could get superstar runs from both LeBron James and Anthony Davis to fuel some bully ball.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? This team stinks on defense. Only the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans allow more points in the paint.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 9.0 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +1800
  • Can they actually do it? No. This Lakers team would need to take a big swing at the trade deadline to add enough firepower or defense (maybe both?) to be championship-quality.

Play-In Teams

Dallas Mavericks: 22-19 | 114.9 offensive rating (eighth) | 111.7 defensive rating (12th) | plus-3.3 net rating (eighth)

  • How could they do it? A lot like what we saw last year. They took down the Thunder by making timely shots and playing great defense. With Klay Thompson in the mix to help out with crucial buckets, the Mavs are as good as anybody in the West when it comes to a postseason scenario.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving are a little questionable with health, but I’m mostly concerned about this team being terrible at defensive rebounding. The Mavericks have to end defensive possessions with stops.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 79.5 percent said they can’t beat the Thunder.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +850
  • Can they actually do it? I believe so. The Thunder addressed some roster issues to fix what happened against Dallas, but this Mavs team is amazing when healthy.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 21-19 | 111.8 offensive rating (17th) | 110.1 defensive rating (seventh) | plus-1.8 net rating (12th)

  • How could they do it? Do what got them to the conference finals last year and then a little bit more. Anthony Edwards has to ascend, yet again. Julius Randle can’t hurt their game plan, and they’ll need role players to get hot from 3-point range.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? This team is too predictable and clunky on offense. Once you get the ball away from Edwards, nobody is worried about what happens. Also, Minnesota turns it over too much.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 38.7 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +1400
  • Can they actually do it? I think there’s a sliver of a chance, but that’s more about believing in Edwards having a special postseason run that transcends.

Sacramento Kings: 20-20 | 115.3 offensive rating (seventh) | 112.6 defensive rating (14th) | plus-2.6 net rating (10th)

  • How could they do it? Keep riding this wave since Doug Christie took over as interim coach. The defense has been vastly improved, and the offense looks more fluid. The Kings need their clutch players (De’Aaron Fox and DeMar DeRozan) to coexist and come through in big moments.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? How do they consistently stop anybody in crunchtime with Domantas Sabonis as their backline big man? I’m not sure their defense translates to playoff success.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 10.7 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +4000
  • Can they actually do it? I don’t think so, but I want to see more of how this team looks under Christie.

Golden State Warriors: 20-20 | 111.3 offensive rating (20th) | 110.9 defensive rating (tied-10th) | plus-0.5 net rating (15th)

  • How could they do it? Channeling that defense from the 2022 title run and finding enough guys to hit timely shots around Steph Curry. They’d really have to make games quite ugly but not shy away from big shots in the closing moments of playoff games.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? This is an awful offensive team that is still far too careless with the basketball.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 12.3 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +1800
  • Can they actually do it? I refuse to completely write them off, but I know it’s looking dumber and dumber with each passing week.

Outside looking in

Phoenix Suns: 19-20 | 113.7 offensive rating (11th) | 115.2 defensive rating (22nd) | minus-1.5 net rating (19th)

  • How could they do it? Everybody has to be healthy and execute the game plan from Mike Budenholzer. This team looked great to begin the season, and it will need to ride big stretches from Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to be dangerous in the postseason.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? They can’t defend or stay healthy. Also, Budenholzer isn’t the best at adjustments in playoff situations.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 12.8 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +2500
  • Can they actually do it? They have not shown us any reason to believe. I want to believe, but it’s foolish.

San Antonio Spurs: 19-20 | 111.7 offensive rating (tied-18th) | 112.3 defensive rating (13th) | minus-0.6 net rating (17th)

  • How could they do it? Victor Wembanyama keeps becoming more and more unfair, Chris Paul stays healthy and all of the young guys thrive in the big moments. It’s asking a lot, but Wemby makes you believe in things that don’t make any sense — like fried ice cream and the superpowers of the cast of the “Fast and Furious” franchise.
  • What is their glaring flaw to keep them from playoff success? They’re still too young and are atrocious on offense when Paul isn’t in the game.
  • Bouncers’ vote: 7.1 percent said they have the best chance of teams outside the top six to beat OKC in a series.
  • BetMGM odds to win the West: +12500
  • Can they actually do it? No, but I do want to see Wemby in the playoffs this year. He’s too fun to not have around.

Games on the radar

Do you plan out your weekend around your sports-viewing schedule? You’re not alone. Are you the type to want to look like a sports savant by going to your local sports bar, suggesting a game to put on and then reveling in the praise from fellow patrons you’ll get for knowing what to watch? You’re home. Are you the type to just fly by the seat of your pants and wing it last minute when you remember games are on? Bookmark this post and refer to it later! These are the best games to pay attention to this weekend.

(All times Eastern)

Thursday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:30 p.m. on TNT: Round 2! The Cavs and Thunder gave us a historic game last week, and now OKC gets a chance to avenge its loss to Cleveland.

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons, 7 p.m. on League Pass: This is actually a pretty important game when it comes to seeding. The Pistons are on a roll, as are the Pacers. And they’re both battling it out for top-six positioning in the East. They both need to avoid that Play-In!

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. on TNT: The Kings aren’t streaking anymore, but they’re still dangerous. This is a great showdown between a great offense and a great defense.


Julius Randle and the Timberwolves face the Knicks in New York on Friday. (Jordan Johnson / NBAE via Getty Images)

Friday

Minnesota Timberwolves at New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. on League Pass: Revenge Game, Part Deux! We had the Knicks embarrass the Wolves in Karl-Anthony Towns’ return to the Target Center earlier this season. Now, Minnesota gets a chance to give it back in Madison Square Garden.

Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. on ESPN: The Magic have Paolo Banchero back, and they’re the type of defense that can frustrate a struggling Celtics offense — well, struggling for their standard.

Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs, 9:30 p.m. on ESPN: All I want to see is Morant try to dunk on Wembanyama every time they play and to see the crazy stuff Wemby tries in order to stop it. It’s like watching a mixture of Slamball and someone on stilts at a carnival.

Saturday

Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves, 9 p.m. on League Pass: Remember when Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were teammates? How about when Quin Snyder had a hilarious way of deflecting the tension in that locker room?

Sunday

Philadelphia 76ers at Milwaukee Bucks, 7 p.m. on League pass: I’d love to see the Sixers healthy and trying to test themselves against a solid Bucks team. We’ll probably be watching the NFL playoffs instead, though.


Throwback Thursday: James Harden traded to the Nets

On this date in 2019, James Harden dropped 58 points in a loss to the Brooklyn Nets. It was a weird game because this was the Nets pre-Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving joining the squad. It was an overtime 145-142 loss. Harden had 53 of his 58 points in regulation but couldn’t overcome 33 off the bench from Spencer Dinwiddie, 22 off the bench from DeMarre Carroll and Jarrett Allen putting up 20 points and 24 rebounds. You think teams shoot too many 3-pointers now? The Rockets went 23-of-70 from deep in this game!

Two years later, on the exact same date, Harden and the Nets got a different type of history in the almanac (do almanacs still exist?) when he made his debut with the Nets after forcing his way out of Houston. This was the trade package to complete the four-team deal between the Rockets and Nets:

  • Nets received: James Harden
  • Rockets received: Victor Oladipo, Dante Exum, Rodions Kurucs, four first-round pick swaps with Brooklyn (2021, 2023, 2025, 2027), 2022 first-round pick (from Cleveland), 2022 first-round pick (from Nets), 2024 first-round pick (from Nets), 2026 first-round pick (from Nets)
  • Cavaliers received: Jarrett Allen, Taurean Prince, rights to Sasha Vezenkov
  • Pacers received: Caris LeVert, 2023 second-round pick (from Houston), 2024 second-round pick (from Cleveland), cash

The Rockets didn’t exercise those first two pick swaps with Brooklyn, but they did end up with Tari Eason and Reed Sheppard from two of the first-round selections. They moved the other one for other first-round picks.

The saga of this Harden trade was hilarious entertainment in real time. The league was still trying to navigate a post-COVID-19-pandemic existence, so safety protocols just weeks outside of the bubble in Orlando were a seemingly fluid concept. Harden had decided he wanted out of Houston, having done all he could do in that uniform. And he knew he had to get messy in order to get traded and possibly teamed up with Durant and Irving in Brooklyn. This was the timeline of Harden’s exit from Houston:

  • Oct. 15, 2020: Daryl Morey stepped down as executive of the Rockets.
  • Nov. 11, 2020: Russell Westbrook requests trade from Rockets.
  • Nov. 16, 2020: Harden rejects a contract extension before requesting trade to Brooklyn.
  • Dec. 2, 2020: Rockets trade Westbrook to Washington for John Wall and a first-round pick.
  • Dec. 6, 2020: Rockets training camp begins.
  • Week of Dec. 7, 2020: Harden is seen at clubs in both Las Vegas and Atlanta via social media videos.
  • Dec. 14, 2020: Harden shows up to Houston’s training camp.
  • Dec. 15, 2020: Harden plays in the Rockets’ third preseason game. People are alarmed by his physique in pregame warm-ups.
  • Dec. 16, 2020: Harden is asked about how being in Vegas and Atlanta helped him while the Rockets were at training camp in Houston. His answer is incredible. “Uh, just, you know, my personal trainers.” That’s it! That’s his explanation!
  • Dec. 21, 2020: Harden is in a video at a club, maskless (remember the NBA had strict protocols then). The league investigated the situation.
  • Dec. 23, 2020: Harden uses his friend “becoming a boss” as the reason for why he was at this party. It’s almost as funny as him just saying, “my personal trainers,” and nothing else as to why he was in Vegas and Atlanta, instead of training camp. The NBA fines him $50,000 for violating league’s health and safety protocols.
  • Dec. 26, 2020: Rockets have their first game of the season, and Harden has 44 points (12-of-21 shooting) and 17 assists in an overtime loss.
  • Dec. 28, 2020: Rockets lose to Denver as Harden records 34 points (10-of-16 shooting) and eight assists.
  • Dec. 31, 2020: Rockets beat Sacramento at home. Harden scores 33 points (10-of-24 shooting) and has eight assists.
  • Jan. 2, 2021: Harden misses win over Kings with a sprained right ankle.
  • Jan. 4, 2021: Harden scores 21 points (5-of-17 shooting) and 10 assists in a loss to Dallas.
  • Jan. 6, 2021: Harden finishes 15 points (5-of-14 shooting) and 12 assists in a loss to Indiana.
  • Jan. 8, 2021: Harden puts up 15 points (6-of-13 shooting) and 13 assists in a blowout win over Orlando.
  • Jan. 10, 2021: Harden has 20 points (7-of-14 shooting) and nine assists (seven turnovers) in a loss to the Lakers.
  • Jan. 12, 2021: Harden finishes with 16 points (5-of-16 shooting) and six assists in a loss to the Lakers. He says the team is “not good enough” to win a championship and the situation can’t be fixed in Houston.

The final image of Harden as a Rocket was truly alarming. It appeared the pregame “fat suit” under his warm-ups was back, as the 2018 MVP looked nothing like you expect from an NBA player in their prime, especially a guard. Harden was traded two days later and looked entirely different in a Nets uniform for many reasons.

It was one of the funniest reveals in league history on both sides of it. Ozempic could never deliver like this trade to Brooklyn appeared to do. Harden made his debut for the Nets on Jan. 16 and dropped 32 points (8-of-18 shooting), 14 assists and 12 rebounds in a win over Orlando. They formed a big three that barely played together due to injuries. And it ended a little over a year later when the Nets traded Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers to reunite him with Morey.

The league frowns upon players requesting trades, especially publicly. But it truly provides us with the most dramatic and petty moments of pure entertainment. Why?

“Uh, just, you know, my personal trainers.”

‘Nuff said.

(Top photo: Joshua Gateley / Getty Images)



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