Historic records to watch in NBA's second half; scouting Matas Buzelis and Jeremiah Fears

Four more wins. That’s all we ask in our nation’s capital.

In a season of potentially historic milestones, it’s one of the biggest to keep your eye on between now and April.

Heading into the second half of the season — every team except the Lakers, who have had cancellations because of the Southern California wildfires, had played 41 times by the close of business on Monday — it’s amazing how many season-level records are potentially in play. We’ve had some historic performances in the first half of 2024-25 that aren’t getting enough attention.

Consider, for instance, the Washington Wizards, who essentially entered this season with three goals: First, maximize their odds of winning the Draft Lottery; second, develop whatever young talent was on hand as best they could; and third, don’t have the worst team in history.

Well, items No. 1 and No. 2 have gone swimmingly, but they’re 6-35 with a staggering -14.2 point differential, which means they’re not exactly in the clear on that third bullet point (or is it a Wizard point?), especially with Washington likely to deal some of its “good” players at the trade deadline. With four more wins, the Wizards can at least avoid the ignominy of the 9-73 Philadelphia team of 1972-73 or the 7-59 Charlotte team of 2011-12. Even the process Sixers got to 10 wins (10-72 in 2015-16)!

Washington is also pushing the 1992-93 Mavs for the worst scoring margin ever; that Dallas team, which went 11-71 after an unfathomable 4-57 start and only got to 11 wins by winning its last two games, took home a margin of -15.2. The Wizards have already taken a staggering 13 Ls by 20 or more, yet would have to redouble their efforts to match the magic work of Mike Iuzzolino, Doug Smith and company three decades ago.

OK, but let’s stay positive here: The same thing is happening at the top of the standings. Neither Cleveland nor Oklahoma City will threaten the Warriors’ record 73-9 season in 2015-16, not least because everyone realized the futility of chasing those extra wins in early April once the Warriors faltered in June.

But could 2024-25 give us the two best combined records ever by top seeds? The Bulls and Sonics teamed up for 136 in 1995-96 before meeting in the Finals; through Monday, the Cavs and Thunder were tracking for 139, with a combined 70-13 mark.

Oklahoma City is also chasing two other historic milestones. The Thunder’s +12.8 scoring margin is currently the best ever, ranking ahead of the 1971-72 Lakers (+12.28) and 1970-71 Bucks (+12.26). If you’re curious, the 1995-96 (+12.24) Bulls are next on the list.

What’s notable about that scoring margin is that the Thunder are doing it in a league that hasn’t had expansion in two decades. The others feasted partly with the help of expansion years, slapping around fledgling Blazers and Raptors. For instance, the Lakers and Bucks set their marks just after a three-team expansion from 14 to 17, and the Bulls did so in a year when the league jumped from 27 to 29.

Additionally, Oklahoma City is chasing the top defensive efficiency mark in history relative to the league average since the league began tracking turnover sin the early 1970s. The Thunder’s 103.9 rating is 9.6 points better than the league mark of 113.5, compared to record-holder 2003-04 San Antonio, who was only 8.5 points better. Oklahoma City has had some absolute blessings form the shooting variance gods to pull this off, but on the other hand the Thunder have been without two of their bets defenders (Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso) for most of the season.

Individually, stat nerds will note that Nikola Jokić is once again taking aim at the Player Efficiency Rating record. His 32.8 mark matches his record season of 2021-22, and while we’re here, he’s also exceeding the Box Plus/Minus record that he set in the same season. Jokic’s 13.92 mark is just ahead of the 13.72 standard he set that year, and if he stays that high he would have five of the top seven seasons in history.

It would be doubly ironic if he pulled off both marks and yet still didn’t win MVP, an outcome that is on the table; Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t that far behind him in both categories, and could have a compelling case if the Thunder finish atop the West.

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In an NBA in which defensive stats have changed radically over the past few decades, we should also shout out Atlanta’s Dyson Daniels and his 4.2-percent steal rate, which is the highest in the NBA in nearly a quarter century. Ron Artest is the only player this century (4.5 percent in 2001-02) to top what Daniels is doing this year; in fact only two other players have even topped 4 percent since 2000.

Similarly, Victor Wembanyama’s 10.7-percent block rate is within hailing distance of Manute Bol’s 10.81 record, set in both 1986-87 and 1988-89. It seems inevitable that he’ll break that mark at some point, and of equal interest is whether he can top Mark Eaton’s career blocks per game mark. That stands at 3.5, and Wembanyama currently stands way ahead of him at 4.3 … but whether he can stay there depends heavily on how the tail end of his career plays out.

At any rate, we enter the halfway point of the season with the chance for some historic seasons, for both good and bad. Trades and playoff chases will dominate the day-to-day NBA conversation over these next several weeks, but don’t forget to get yer popcorn and appreciate some of these records that are in play.

Cap Geekery: Nick Richards trade minutiae

Phoenix traded Josh Okogie to Charlotte for Nick Richards last week, also sending out three future second-round picks and receiving one in 2025 in return.

For cap nerds, there was a lot to unpack here. First, because the Suns were under the second apron they could only acquire Richards buy sending out a single players with more salary than they took back; thus, Okogie’s $8.25 million could return Richards, who makes $5.5 million, but not, say, Josh Green, who makes $12 million.

An interesting note on that line is that the Suns could have used Okogie’s contract to acquire Cody Martin ($8.1 million), but seemingly decided frontcourt help was more important than another wing. If you’ve seen Phoenix’s centers this year, you likely agree.

Setting aside the question of whether it makes sense for the Suns trade their little remaining draft equity just to get somebody less awful than the guys they already had, all so they can finish eighth instead of ninth, there’s an interesting money angle to the deal that I haven’t seen mentioned.

The Suns also achieved significant saving on this deal, sparing themselves of roughly $21 million in luxury tax and penalties in 2024-25. But because of the draft picks exchanged, that amount is likely to end up closer to $30 million.

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The swap of second-round picks in this deal had Phoenix sending three out for one back, rather than the Suns just sending two out. Notably, Phoenix acquired a 2025 second-round pick likely to be in the 50s (the lesser of Denver’s or Philadelphia’s … so, uh, Denver’s).

And why does that matter? Because the nine Suns already under contract next year already have them $34 million above the projected 2025-26 tax line; once they fill out the roster with minimum deals, the Suns are looking at a tax burden similar to the $200 million they’ll owe this year. (This assumption includes the Suns picking up the non-guaranteed $5 million for Richards next year.)

Except … they’ll owe even more because of the repeater penalty, which will raise their burden to roughly $240 million.

At that level, even a $1 million savings in contract dollars drops roughly $7 million from the Suns’ tax burden. Enter the draft pick, a late second-rounder who is almost certain to be rostered on a rookie minimum deal, much as tax teams such as the Lakers, Knicks, Pelicans, Heat, and Clippers did with their own late second-rounders in 2024.

That contract, which can only be given to a drafted rookie, is barely half that of the veteran minimum that teams would otherwise see entered on their luxury tax calculation – an estimated $1.27 million next year instead of $2.29 million. Which is why tax teams use it to fill their 14th and final roster spot (tax teams almost never carry the full 15) on a player whose financial impact will be minimized … even when it’s a team that spends as freely as Phoenix.

Rookie of the Week: Matas Buzelis, 6-10 PF, Chicago

(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best rookie of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)

Like many players in the class of 2024, it’s been a slow go for Buzelis in his first pro season. The 6-10 forward has appeared in 41 games, but often in a bit role, averaging just 12.8 minutes a night and averaging 4.9 points on 38.8-percent shooting.

Selected 11th in June’s draft, the Chicago native of Lithuanian extraction has shown enough as a 20-year-old rookie to maintain intrigue, but the question is whether he can add enough shooting, strength and overall skill to become a core piece of the Bulls’ future. (Just as soon they decide what the future is, but I digress.)

I was in Portland on Sunday and saw Buzelis showcase all those areas, for good and bad, during a 17-minute run in Chicago’s loss to the Blazers.

First, let’s get to the good stuff. The clip below gives you an idea of how Buzelis’s intersection of size and mobility could make him a major defensive force in time.

This is a 6-10 forward sliding his feet on defense to contain penetration, and then at the end he easily swats away the shot attempt by Portland’s Dalano Banton.

Offensively, he has some tools in his bag too. Watch him in this clip below, finishing off a coast-to-coast attack with a gliding bank shot, coming under control at the end of his move to kiss it in gently.

The problem is that there are too many other times when either his strength, skill or decision-making isn’t quite there yet. He’s shooting 33 percent from 3, for instance, mostly on catch-and-shoots from the corner. While his form looks good and his 81.3-percent mark from the line is a good long-term indicator, he has to be a more consistent perimeter threat to succeed in his likely role as a stretch 4.

Beyond that, the more typical rookie warts have been evident. On Sunday, he made a bad decision on a goaltend, got trucked physically on a few different plays (most notably when a driving Deni Avdija easily discarded him with a shoulder en route to a bucket), and hasn’t quite mastered how to use his size and leaping to finish consistently at the rim.

Watch here, for instance, as he makes a nice steal in the passing lane and has an opportunity the other way, but gets into his Euro step move a step too late, loses the ball a bit in his left hand, and by the time he goes up Kris Murray has recovered into the play to block his lay-up.

I can nitpick clips all day, but here’s what Bulls coach Billy Donovan said when I asked about Buzelis’s play to date and continued areas of improvement: “He’s earned his minutes, which has been a positive. He’s got obviously terrific upside, and ability, and talent. But he’s young and … all these guys get into a situation where they come into the league at an extremely young age, there’s a pass given on, they’re young. They gotta learn. And rightfully so, I’m not disputing that. And then after a period of time, it’s like, you’re older now and you have to be able to do this.

“I think for Matas, the consistency part with him, with understanding the league, understanding personnel, understanding who he’s guarding. A lot of times he’s on perimeter players, he’s been a guy probably a lot of time in the G League or in high school he’s been in the frontcourt. With where the league goes, teams are playing with four guards and if they are playing with a power forward he’s a guy who can handle and shoot and play.

So he’s done a really good job, I’m really encouraged with him, the way he’s responded, and I do think if he continues on that path he’ll continue to get better and improve. I’ve enjoyed him, he’s a good worker, he’s not afraid, and he’ll get in there and compete. He just needs, as young guys do, to learn.”

Prospect of the Week: Jeremiah Fears, 6-4 Freshman SG, Oklahoma

(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best rookie of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)

While I was in Oklahoma City for last week’s Cavs-Thunder showdown, I made the short drive over to Norman to check out the Texas-Oklahoma game and the battle of freshman guards Jeremiah Fears and Tre Johnson.

While Johnson is the more known quantity and his Texas team won the game, Fears is the name that has jumped in from out of left field as one of the nation’s top freshmen. With an October 2006 birthdate, the southpaw will be one of the youngest players in the draft, but has averaged 16.8 points per game while leading the Sooners to a 14-4 start. (It seems the Sooners were surprised too — they brought him off the bench for the first three games before starting him since.)

Fears’ most notable skill is his ability to slither all the way to the rim, even against college defenses that load up the paint. He had several downhill drives against Texas that ended in easy lay-ups, and that’s consistent with his whole season. He can push in transition, change hands and directions at high speed, and handle against pressure.

Like, this is straight butter:

I really love how little of Jeremiah Fears’ game feels predetermined. One of the best handles and improvisers in the country. pic.twitter.com/7AKPzthV9X

— Tyler Metcalf (@tmetcalf11) January 16, 2025

He’s also drawn fouls at a high rate and made 83.3 percent from the line, offering hope that he can extend that accuracy to the 3-point line. So far it’s been a struggle; he’s made only 18 of his 68 3-point attempts, and watching him pre-game he looked more like a low-30s streak shooter than an elite marksman.

More troubling, perhaps, are his bona fides as a point guard. Fears missed wide-open rollers out of pick-and-roll on multiple occasions, and committed six turnovers. His rate of 7.9 turnovers per 100 possession is off the charts for a perimeter draft prospect, and he will have to take better care of the rock in the second half of the season.

Defensively, Fears has a nose for the ball and his 3.9 steals per 100 possessions are a good analytics indicator, but otherwise one worries about his size and body. He is listed at 6-4 but, having been courtside before the game, this feels aggressive. I think he’ll measure 6-2 at the combine.

Finally, Fears has a fairly narrow frame and struggled to get through screens at times, so overall size looms as an issue. Toward the end of the game, Johnson posted him up twice and shot right over him for buckets.

Add it all up and there a lot of questions, so his lottery case may be overstated. Fears can get to the rim, but he’s a small guard who still needs to show he can space the floor and get others involved. On the other hand, his youth, steal rate and 2-point shooting (56.4 percent)  all are plus indicators historically. Scouts will be eyeing those weaknesses more closely the second half of the season, and in a loaded SEC he’ll be tested by top-notch opposition every night.

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(Illustration: Tyler Batiste / The Athletic; Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)