Once a week (mostly) for an hour during the Premier League season, The Athletic’s Newcastle United subscribers can ask our writers covering the club for views and insight into what’s happening at St James’ Park.
Here, we have pulled together some of their questions and our answers from Monday’s edition of our Inside Newcastle live Q&A, which included queries about Lloyd Kelly’s situation, the club’s confusing PSR picture and what is happening in terms of a new contract for Alexander Isak.
Want to ask us anything Newcastle-related? Chris Waugh will be back next Monday at 2pm GMT (9am ET) for another session.
Surely getting a rumoured £15million and Lloyd Kelly’s alleged high wages off the bill is “free money” in a PSR world? — Chris M.
Waugh: The Kelly situation is not one which was envisaged when the winter transfer window opened at the start of the month. That is not to be misconstrued as thinking Newcastle have been, or indeed are, actively looking to sell him. Rather, an opportunity may present itself with Kelly which, in PSR (the Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules) terms, makes sense for the club.
With Kelly arriving on a free transfer from Bournemouth last July after his contract there expired, there was no fee paid, meaning there is no amortisation cost. Usually, transfer expenditure is spread over a contract so, if Newcastle paid £25million ($30.8m) for someone on a five-year deal, that would be £5m per season over that time. Often when a player is sold, not all of the fee can immediately be ‘banked’ for PSR, because the remaining amortised costs must be deducted.
But Newcastle do not have any expenditure to write off with Kelly, so any fee they receive for him would bolster their PSR in full. To clarify, however, rumours that the 26-year-old defender is among the club’s highest earners are untrue.
Theoretically, Kelly could be expendable given his squad status. He has made only four Premier League starts this season and just seven in all competitions. With Sven Botman and Emil Krafth fit again, alongside Dan Burn and Fabian Schar, there are four senior centre-halves available to Howe, plus Lewis Hall and Matt Targett at left-back.
Kelly has only made seven starts in his debut season with Newcastle (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Even so, ideally Newcastle would hold onto Kelly. Yes, he has struggled this season, but he has three previous years of Premier League experience and only turned 26 in October, while most of Newcastle’s centre-halves, Botman aside, are already 30 or over, and the defence’s age profile needs to be reduced. Signing a replacement who can cover two positions, like Kelly can, would not be cheap, so that must be considered too.
Neither Fenerbahce of Turkey nor Italy’s Juventus have seriously tested Newcastle’s resolve yet. The former’s permanent offer was too low — their vice-president going public with their interest was received negatively inside St James’ Park — while the latter’s loan bid is not in Newcastle’s interests.
If any club were to make a serious bid — probably in excess of £15million, if not £20m — then Newcastle would have a decision to make, given the potential PSR effects. For now, though, Kelly is not set to leave before the February 3 deadline.
Can you please explain in plain English what our current PSR status is, and how much capacity we have to replace outgoing players? — James A.
Waugh: Honestly? Nobody outside of the club can provide you with an adequate answer because we do not have access to the up-to-date financial results. That is one of the key issues with PSR; not only are clubs’ supporters forced into trying to understand how accounting works, they are not presented with all the current information anyway. When we do get to see the accounts, it is after the fact.
Newcastle’s next financial results should be out within a month or so, yet they are going to cover 2023-24, and will only hint at what the outlook is for this January. Even then, the profit and loss shown is not the precise number used in the PSR calculation because infrastructure, academy and women’s team costs can be deducted. The PSR system is also set to change after this season so it is more closely linked to revenue, and that further complicates attempts to work out what the present landscape is at Newcastle.
However, to answer your question, James, multiple sources have consistently insisted that Newcastle have limited, if any, capacity to spend over the next couple of weeks. Or, at the very least, if they do invest now, it could significantly (and potentially negatively) affect what they can do in future windows. What’s more, the suggestion is that if Newcastle do sign someone for a fee, they may well need to sell not just Miguel Almiron to ensure they comply with PSR by June 30.
As things stand, the expectation is that Newcastle will not make any significant first-team signings in this window. That has been the persistent message for weeks and it has not changed yet, even as Almiron edges towards the exit.
Where’s Jamaal Lascelles? — Nathan S.
Waugh: Lascelles is still a matter of weeks away from returning from his long-term knee injury.
While Howe refused to put a definitive timeframe on Lascelles’ comeback when asked a fortnight ago, he did admit that the club captain is most likely to be back from March onwards.
Lascelles after suffering his ACL injury in March (Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Although Lascelles suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury on March 30, only a fortnight after Botman succumbed to the same thing, the latter’s recovery has been quicker and more straightforward of the two. Although Lascelles has diligently put in the time and effort to recover, his period out will be longer than the Dutchman’s.
For Lascelles, that will be frustrating, given he is now 31 and set to be out of contract this summer. With a right-sided centre-back being sought, his future may be away from Tyneside, but he will want to contribute all he can before then and prove he warrants a new deal.
We are, in a footballing sense, in a position of strength. Should we not be looking to get at least one new face in to try to win a trophy and get back into the Champions League? — Chris K.
Waugh: That is the dilemma and, ideally, any club would want to improve themselves from a position of strength. But the PSR situation means Newcastle are operating in a far-from-ideal world, one which limits their ability to manoeuvre.
Two years ago, despite pre-window warnings that Newcastle had limited capacity to spend in January 2023, the club stretched themselves and signed Anthony Gordon from Everton for an initial £40million. He was viewed as a player who could both help Newcastle secure a Champions League place over the next few months and then play a key role in their future (though his immediate impact turned out to be minimal).
Theoretically, Newcastle could look to do something similar now — but, if they did so, then the consistent claim has been that player sales, and not only Almiron, would become necessary to ensure the club comply with PSR by June 30. The Marc Guehi saga last summer makes this explanation murky, as fans assume funds were there to spend but, as Howe stressed last week, there was no “pot of money” merely waiting to be used. Had Guehi been signed from Crystal Palace, the cost would have needed to be at least partly offset through sales.
Some may argue that the short-term need is so great that Newcastle should bring in at least one out of a right-sided forward, striker or centre-back, as that may give them a greater chance of winning a cup, and of qualifying for the Champions League. Achieving either would increase Newcastle’s income for next season and, in turn, might allow them to be able to invest more going forward.
But there is also a significant risk to that, because no signing is guaranteed to deliver that desired success, and because it would likely force further short-term sales, meaning players who the club would ideally like to keep may have to be parted with.
Personally, I feel the squad needs bolstering and refreshing, but I am not sure it is feasible during this window. Newcastle’s hierarchy are adamant they will back Howe to the extent they feel they can, but the insistence is they just do not have sufficient wiggle room to do so to any great degree this month. And, given Howe has not shown public dissent over transfers, perhaps he accepts that is the reality.
Newcastle spent a lot on Gordon in January 2023 (Glyn Kirk/AFP/Getty Images)
What is the biggest difficulty regarding a contract extension for Alexander Isak? PSR or his personal thoughts? — Tony C.
Waugh: The speculation surrounding Isak’s future is not going away, but a new contract is not imminent.
Newcastle could not value Isak’s contributions any higher, with universal internal recognition that the Sweden international is a world-class talent who they want to build their team around for years to come. Even during the height of their PSR crisis last June, Newcastle did not countenance letting Isak leave, even though Chelsea made tentative enquiries. He is a unique prospect who has 17 goals and five assists in 24 games this season, and the 25-year-old is only going to get better.
Of course, Newcastle would prefer to protect themselves further by extending Isak’s contract and increasing his wages, to deter suitors and keep the striker happy. But PSR is a crucial limiting factor here too. Salaries are a constant in the calculation and will arguably become even more important once the system becomes tied to revenues. Unless Newcastle significantly increase their income streams, they cannot afford to offer a substantial wage increase to a player who is already among the squad’s highest earners, especially given the raises Bruno Guimaraes, Gordon and Joelinton have already been handed.
With three-and-a-half years left on his contract, Isak does not appear in a rush to tie himself to Newcastle for longer than that, either. He wants to be back in the Champions League, so returning to Europe’s premier competition, and winning trophies, will be critical to Newcastle’s hopes of keeping him. As mentioned above, that sort of success would also increase the club’s revenue, meaning a pay rise for Isak would become more feasible.
Again, Isak is under contract until summer 2028, so Newcastle have time to work with regarding his future. They can still demand what would be a fee well over £100million, should serious interest be shown, and that will deter many, if not all, suitors.
But if they fail to get back into the Champions League, then Isak’s desire to remain may be tested.
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Is the lack of rotation in the team a failing of Howe or down to the squad’s lack of depth? — Craig B.
Waugh: A bit of both, Craig. But probably more the latter right now.
Looking at the bench against Bournemouth on Saturday, Howe did not use his full quota of five substitutions as Newcastle chased the game, despite admitting that his XI appeared to lack energy. Clearly, Howe does not trust Almiron to materially affect matches any more, while Sean Longstaff has only been brought on in one of the past five league fixtures, having dropped down the pecking order. Kelly was also unused and Lewis Miley, still only 18, is seeing restricted game time at the moment.
Miley’s minutes are being restricted (Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images)
Howe also made a point of stressing that the replacements who did come on — Kieran Trippier, Schar, William Osula and Joe Willock — did not actually improve the team’s performance. That seems a simplistic and harsh view, given Bournemouth had dominated, but it is also true.
Looking at the bench as a whole, with Callum Wilson and Harvey Barnes currently injured, suddenly Newcastle did not possess any real game-changers, beyond Willock and Trippier, among their nine listed replacements. And that is a failing of squad depth. Newcastle have a full 25-man Premier League squad, but within that lie an underbelly of players who either ideally should have been moved on sooner, or are just not of the quality required.
That makes Howe’s reticence to rotate understandable, and even more so given consistency in selection was crucial throughout the recent nine-game winning run, but his evolution as a head coach necessitates a better use of his entire squad.
Should Newcastle get back into the Champions League, he needs significantly greater depth from which to select next season, but must also learn to switch his players in and out more often to protect them, while also finding a way of maintaining consistent performance levels and stylistic approach.
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(Top photo: Naomi Baker via Getty Images)
