Court Vision: Florida and Texas A&M's late steals, what's going on with UConn, UNC

Beyond “being very good at basketball,” what’s something that eight of the past 10 national champions have in common?

They all won at least one one-possession game the season they won it all. (The two exceptions? 2021 Baylor, which played only 30 games in a COVID-19-shortened season, and 2023 UConn, which lost four one-possession games before turning into a postseason juggernaut.)

The point is, even the best teams in college basketball sometimes have to grind out ugly ones. Beating a middling team by one or two points is by no means disqualifying come the Big Dance.

Good. Because a few contenders fell into that category this week:

1. Buzzer-beaters aplenty, and proof there are no days off in the SEC

Six Top-25 teams — and two in the top five — eked out one-possession wins this week, including a pair of improbable last-second steals by SEC contenders.

First, Wednesday, Florida trailed South Carolina — the closest thing to a gimme win in the SEC this year — for the entire game, including by 13 with under nine minutes left. But the Gators finished on a 25-11 run to avoid the upset, highlighted by Will Richard’s game-winning layup with five seconds left. Somehow, that was Florida’s only lead. It’s a tough finish by Richard, but the real credit on the play goes to center Alex Condon, who sealed Collin Murray-Boyles inside and allowed Richard to even get off a shot:

Richard scored 10 of his game-high 22 points during those final nine minutes, ensuring that at least one of Florida’s guards scored 20-plus; that’s now happened in 13 of the Gators’ 19 games, reaffirming that UF has the best guard triumvirate in the country. Per Stathead, the Gators are one of five high-major teams this season with three guards averaging at least 13 points per game, joining Georgetown, Kentucky, UCF and Louisville. And while the Cards have been impressive lately, I’m still taking Florida’s trio. All of Richard, Alijah Martin and Walter Clayton Jr. are top-300 nationally in offensive rating, per KenPom, a distinction only the Gators’ guards can tout.

The later SEC window repurposed that same script, only with a more dramatic flair. Texas A&M, having lost two straight, trailed the entire game (and by as many as 11 in the second half) at Ole Miss, until Manny Obaseki canned a kick-out 3-pointer with 13 seconds left that gave the Aggies their first and only lead all night. He had made only six 3s all season until:

Now, why Chris Beard didn’t call timeout there — with plenty of time to set up a game-winner — is beyond me, especially when you consider that Ole Miss didn’t make a field goal for the last four minutes of the game. (Might’ve helped to pull out the old clip board!) Instead, A&M earned its fifth win against a ranked foe this season — tying the program’s single-season record with six weeks left to play — and created a massive logjam in the SEC standings.

Ole Miss did not finish well, ceding an 11-2 run in the final two minutes. But if I had to pick one of the two to make a deeper postseason run, I still lean Mississippi. Not only does Beard’s team have the SEC’s best defense — yes, really, over Tennessee — but it has multiple capable ballhandlers, led by Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedulla, plus the third-lowest turnover rate in the country, per KenPom. Texas A&M is a menace on the glass like always, and lives at the free-throw line, but beyond Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps, Buzz Williams’ team just doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to inspire much confidence. Regardless, both squads are now part of the 4-2 SEC mob staring up at Auburn and Alabama.

2. UConn’s lingering Liam McNeeley question isn’t Huskies’ only concern

Dan Hurley’s in-game comment to an official on Tuesday — in which he’s caught clearly saying, “I’m the best coach in the f—ing sport” — is patently absurd. It goes beyond Hurley “moving differently” from most college coaches. It’s just cockiness. Pure ego. Aka, the exact opposite of what he wants his players to embody.

(Side note: When you are the best at something, it’s understood. Imagine Matt Painter, Mark Few, Scott Drew or any of the other elite coaches out there saying something like this. Exactly — they wouldn’t.)

As for UConn the basketball team, I have concerns. Will Warren — one of my favorite college basketball follows — wrote a fascinating piece this week about 3-point regression, in which he makes the probable argument that UConn is a victim of bad 3-point shooting variance. The Huskies, per KenPom, are 339th nationally in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make 37.9 percent of their 3s. Considering UConn was top 40 in that respect the past two seasons, is it more likely that Hurley suddenly doesn’t know how to defend the perimeter or that opponents are making shots at an unsustainable rate? Warren makes the longer analytical argument, but the TLDR is the latter, and I buy it.

That said, two other things about UConn do worry me right now.

Start with McNeeley, UConn’s five-star freshman wing, who suffered a high-ankle sprain against DePaul on Jan. 1. McNeeley hasn’t played since, and Hurley has offered little information about his rehab. Prior to his injury, you could make the argument — and I would — that McNeeley had become the Huskies’ best offensive threat. In December, McNeeley averaged 16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, while shooting 42.9 percent from 3 and 89.7 percent from the free-throw line. (UConn won all five games.) That is a dude who wins you games in March.

But the longer McNeeley is out — Hurley said he “maybe” could be back at the end of January — the more questions that arise. It’s unfair to expect him to pick right back up where he left off (which was as one of the best freshmen in America). How does UConn reintegrate him? How does his return impact the overall rotation? If there’s a coach you want figuring out those answers on the fly, it’s Hurley — but suddenly re-introducing an alpha offensive player this late isn’t as easy as it seems. Ask Mike Krzyzewski how that went a few seasons ago with Zion Williamson.

As for the Huskies defense, while some level of 3-point regression is to be expected, they are still fouling at the same rate they did during the Maui Invitational, when they went 0-3. Per KenPom, UConn is 343rd nationally — easily the worst amongst high-major teams — in defensive free-throw rate, and its opponents average 22.7 free-throws per game. Altogether, the Huskies have allowed the second-most free-throw attempts this season among high-major teams, trailing only Ohio State. Per Synergy, the three biggest areas where UConn struggles with fouling are on offensive putbacks (where they foul on 27.5 percent of possessions); cuts (21 percent); and in transition (17.8 percent).

Late against Butler on Wednesday, Samson Johnson (No. 35) stepped up in help as Finley Bizjack got off a two-footed runner — but that took him out of position for the defensive rebound, and he ultimately ended up fouling:

Earlier in the same game, Tarris Reed Jr. (No. 5) left his man to help Solo Ball at the rim, but when Ball’s man passed to a cutting Andre Screen rather than attempting the layup, Reed was late recovering and committed the foul:

Again, same game, another issue. This time, Butler got going in transition, sophomore Jayden Ross took a bad angle on the pass to the trailer, Butler’s Patrick McCaffery easily got past him, and Johnson fouled at the rim trying to cover for Ross:

It should tell you something that there are so many examples readily available from UConn’s most recent outing. Many of these fouls, just like in Maui, stem from UConn’s rotations being juuuuust a step slower and less crisp than they were the past two seasons. Some of it is also baked into UConn’s rim protection, which Hurley will live with. Behind Johnson and Reed, the Huskies have a top-10 2-point defense, and it’s sometimes a thin line between blocks and fouls. But the fact that this is still an issue nearing the end of January gives me more serious pause about UConn’s postseason chances. It’s the sort of thing that bites teams at the most inopportune times, and against good free-throw shooting teams, has the potential to be fatal.

3. Don’t forget about Houston …

Which, despite three nonconference losses in November, looks like one of the best teams in America. Per Bart Torvik, Kelvin Sampson’s team is the best in the country since Jan. 1, and KenPom has Houston third behind only Duke and Auburn for the season. The college basketball media (points at self) have been selling Duke, Auburn and Iowa State as the three best teams in the country … but Houston probably belongs in that mix, too.

The Cougars defense is elite, per usual. Houston ranks first in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field-goal defense, 2-point defense and block rate. And in Wednesday’s 70-36 dismantling of Utah, according to former ESPN Stats aficionado Jared Berson, Houston became the first D-I team since 2014 with 30 combined blocks and steals in a conference game. (Shout out to Utah’s social media department for having the stones to post the final score on X.) The poor Utes mustered 17 points in the first half and finished with twice as many turnovers (26) as made baskets (13). Utah’s second offensive possession of the game basically set the tone — and made clear that one of these teams is not like the other. It kind of felt like those offseason NBA videos, when elementary schoolers try to score on Anthony Davis:

But the difference between these Cougars and Sampson’s past iterations? For once, they can actually shoot it. Like, really. Houston ranks fifth nationally in 3-point percentage, canning a whopping 39.9 percent of its 3s; not only is that the best 3-point rate of any Sampson-led Houston team, but it’s the best 3-point rate of any team in Sampson’s entire coaching career. (Indiana fans wince from a distance.) Emanuel Sharp and L.J. Cryer both rank top-150 nationally and hit 40-plus percent from deep, while Terrance Arceneaux and Milos Uzan are also solid — making 39.5 and 36.2 percent, respectively — on lesser volume. Houston still dominates the offensive glass off misses, too, which is its main source of offense, but it just isn’t missing nearly as often.

Keep in mind that in Houston’s last four NCAA Tournament losses, it shot 25 percent, 29 percent, five percent and 31.6 percent from 3.

4. North Carolina’s bad week — and potential reckoning

If the NCAA Tournament started today, North Carolina would be in. Probably a nine or 10 seed, if not in the First Four — but still in.

But it was undoubtedly a bad week for the Tar Heels, who lost on a buzzer-beater to Stanford at home — oh, the irony of former Duke guard Jaylen Blakes hitting the dagger — and then on the road at Wake Forest. Stanford isn’t a bad loss, per se, but it’s easily the worst of UNC’s season. And Wake Forest is no juggernaut, but it’s one of the few potential resume-building wins in the ACC this season. Boston College is a welcome reprieve this weekend, but after that, UNC gets a reeling Pitt team before its first matchup with rival Duke.

And that one could get ugly.

North Carolina’s perimeter — RJ Davis, Ian Jackson, Elliot Cadeau, Seth Trimble and Drake Powell, who is playing out of position as a small-ball four — should be good enough to compete with anyone in the country. But when you construct a roster where all your best players are 6 feet 6 or shorter, you need that perimeter to produce. UNC is 245th nationally in 3-point percentage, making 32.1 percent of its 3s. Beyond that, despite starting three guards, UNC’s assist rate is painfully low; assisting under 50 percent of its baskets, which also ranks sub-200 nationally.

But Hubert Davis just looks miserable. His team has an inherent cap because of its roster construction, the fan base is calling for his head (again) and there’s no stability on the horizon. RJ Davis is out of eligibility after this season, and the other four perimeter talents could all test the NBA waters.

Because of his success in his first NCAA Tournament, not to mention leading UNC to an ACC title and No. 1 seed last season, Hubert Davis isn’t going to get fired if this team makes the Big Dance. But if it doesn’t? Missing two postseasons in three years is a much tougher sell, especially to an administration that just ponied up the big bucks for Bill Belichick. Even if UNC does make it, and even if it goes on a little run, it feels like we’re reaching an inflection point — possibly even one of Davis’ own choosing.

Let me put it this way. Short of winning a national championship — which UNC will not this season — Davis has already accomplished what he’ll forever be known for: beating Krzyzewski in his final home game, and again in the Final Four to end his career. Legendary stuff, yes. But also, stuff that only a championship banner can supersede. And for the first time in Davis’ tenure, watching UNC go through the motions on Wednesday, I wondered how many more chances Davis will give himself at that elusive banner.

Or, if things keep going at this rate, if the university will make that decision for him.