Mailbag: The price to lure American schools into the Pac-12, impact of the ACC’s deal with ESPN, the MW’s grant of rights and more

The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline

Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

Do ESPN extending the ACC’s media deal and the Mountain West announcing an “executed” grant-of-rights agreement change the likelihood of any American Athletic Conference schools joining the rebuilt Pac-12? — @DonaldFarmer65

There has been quite a bit of realignment-related news over the past 48 hours. None of it involves actual realignment (i.e., schools changing conferences), but all of it impacts decisions over the next few months and years.

Yes, the Mountain West on Wednesday released a statement from commissioner Gloria Nevarez that revealed the seven foundational members of the new Mountain West have “executed” a grant-of-rights agreement beginning in the summer of 2026.

Yes, ESPN and the ACC on Thursday jointly announced an extension of the Tier I media rights contract, locking up their partnership through the summer of 2036 and (seemingly) ensuring that Clemson and Florida State stand down with their lawsuits.

And yes, the developments indirectly impact the American.

Any media rights news can have sprawling consequences, especially for the rebuilt Pac-12, which remains in expansion mode as it seeks an eighth football-playing member and negotiates a media deal.

Part of the Pac-12’s broad strategy over the past 18 months has been to position itself as a safe haven for Cal and Stanford in case the ACC imploded. The timing has changed, but the concept has not: The ACC seems secure through the end of the decade, but the early 2030s could bring more upheaval.

The Mountain West’s executed grant-of-rights, which we’ll address in detail below, is less impactful on the jigsaw puzzle than the ACC/ESPN news.

How is the American affected?

During its initial expansion wave, in September, the Pac-12 was interested in a combination of Memphis, Tulane and South Florida. Before a formal offer was made, the trio announced they would remain in the American. It was a bad look for the Pac-12, which lost control of the narrative for a brief period — until it landed Gonzaga.

Four months later, the American schools are not off the table. But they would only leap into the Pac-12 if the financial math made sense.

Here’s what we know and what we presume:

— The Pac-12 is seeking a media rights deal in excess of $10 million per school annually, according to sources. Does that mean $18 million, $15 million or $12 million? Our hunch is the target figure is closer to $12 million. And we should also remind folks that it’s a negotiation. The target figure and the final number are often quite different.

— The rock-bottom number, in our view, is $7 million per school annually. That would approximately double the Mountain West’s current payout and essentially equal the average distribution the American schools receive from their contract with ESPN.

If you toss the target number and the rock-bottom number into a cauldron, the end result would be a media rights deal worth roughly $9 million to $10 million annually per school, which is the Hotline’s prediction.

— Here’s the piece we don’t know: The minimum dollar amount the Pac-12 would have to offer Memphis, Tulane and South Florida to make changing conferences financially worthwhile.

The American signed a lengthy deal with ESPN in 2019 that reportedly spins off $7 million per school per year, on average.

Since that time, however, the American has lost schools (Cincinnati, UCF, SMU and Houston) and added replacements (UTSA, Charlotte, Rice, etc.).

Did the newcomers enter the league with full revenue shares?

Or did former commissioner Mike Aresco arrange for the American’s legacy schools to receive a larger portion of the total pot? (That would certainly make sense: Why would Memphis agree to the same payout as Charlotte, which had a grand total of eight seasons in the FBS when it joined the American?)

And if the revenue distributions are skewed toward the legacy schools, by how much?

Put another way: Would an offer of $10 million per year from the Pac-12 be enough to exceed what Memphis, Tulane and USF are receiving annually and cover the additional travel costs?

(Also, Memphis really wants to join the Big 12 — whether it’s realistic or not — and the school won’t make any moves that could potentially complicate the strategy.)

Again, this is all a presumption on our part after watching multiple rounds of realignment play out over the years.

But an offer of $10 million annually from the Pac-12 probably won’t clear the bar.

Then again, the Pac-12 surely knows the number required to draw real interest. If the media rights negotiations aren’t fruitful enough, the conference probably won’t bother making another run at the American schools.

The Mountain West said the schools have signed a grant-of-rights deal. Does that mean the conference owns their media rights starting in 2026, even without a deal in place? Could teams still theoretically leave if they pay the buyout? — @NateJones2009

The grant-of-rights binds each school’s rights to the conference, so that the media partners are able to negotiate and deal with one entity acting on behalf of 10, 14 or however many members exist.

If there’s no media deal, the grant-of-rights is irrelevant.

Our assessment of the Mountain West is similar to our view of the Pac-12 during its months of purgatory after the Los Angeles schools departed: A media rights deal is more likely than not but hardly guaranteed.

We pegged the Pac-12’s survival chances at 60 percent — slightly better than a coin toss. The Mountain West’s prospects are probably closer to 75 percent, but don’t assume for a second that the conference’s future is secure.

The Pac-12’s lawsuit against the Mountain West over the poaching penalty can’t be ignored:

If that $55 million turns into $20 million or $25 million through a settlement and the Mountain West fails to meet any financial commitments it might have made to UNLV and Air Force, for example, the dynamics could change.

In realignment, nothing is done until it’s done; presidents pledge allegiance to one conference while back-room bargaining with another; and public statements mean little without the backing of hard dollars and signed deals.

Which brings us to a final point on this topic:

Did the Mountain West schools sign an all-in grant-of-rights deal (i.e., no matter what happens), or did they attach contingencies to the agreement?

Without knowing the legalese, it’s difficult to draw conclusions.

And in the absence of conclusions, we’ll repeat our realignment mantra: Any media deal that keeps the Mountain West intact is more likely than not … but hardly guaranteed.

With ESPN picking up the ACC option until 2036, are Stanford and Cal stuck in this league until then no matter what happens elsewhere? — @Brian_Wood45

Describing the schools as “stuck” in the ACC suggests you aren’t a fan of the arrangement.

If so, you have company. Plenty of Stanford and Cal fans wish the Pac-12 had remained intact or the schools had been admitted into the Big Ten. But the leaders on both campuses played what they thought was the best hand available, even if it meant joining a conference that winds along Tobacco Road.

The news of ESPN exercising the ACC option through 2036 provides security for the Cardinal and Bears, but the expected creation of a “brand” fund that allocates revenue based on performance likely will enhance the immense revenue disparity both schools are facing over the next decade.

To answer your question: Yes, Stanford and Cal are locked into the ACC for the duration of their legal commitment (through 2036) and would only become free agents (for the rebuilt Pac-12 or the Big Ten) if their new home implodes.

The likelihood of implosion is extremely remote at this point, and it depends not on the ACC so much as the Big Ten.

If the Big Ten decides to expand in advance of its next media rights contract cycle, which begins in the summer of 2031, the ACC could fracture. Only then would the Bay Area schools become available.

Let’s say there’s a school that would send shockwaves across college sports by deciding to join the Pac-12. Assuming this school is a powerhouse in at least one major sport, what would be the benefit to join? — @CelestialMosh

You are undoubtedly referring to Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle’s comment to John Canzano’s Bald Faced Truth radio show that the Pac-12 was “24 hours” from landing a school that would send “shockwaves” through the industry.

Tinkle didn’t name names, but we assume he meant Connecticut.

The rebuilt Pac-12 will be a strong basketball league. UConn’s interest makes sense in that regard.

But here’s the reality: The Pac-12 doesn’t work for the Huskies geographically; and like Memphis, they are eyeing the Big 12.

Also, take what coaches say about realignment with a grain of salt. They are often the last to know.

We have no doubt the Pac-12 was in communication with UConn — in fact, sources confirmed as much — but were the Huskies on the brink of joining? Consider us skeptical.

Are general managers at major college football programs going to become the norm in the next few years? Can the critical mass of these athletic programs afford these senior executive positions, or is it going to simply be a cost of doing business line item? — @Cargoman0363

Any thoughts on the impact of USC hiring a new general manager for football (Chad Bowden)? Does this give Lincoln Riley more time? Or is next season still “a CFP or the highway” year for him? — John

GMs are all the rage, and understandably so. Once the House v. NCAA lawsuit is approved (presumably in April), college sports will enter the revenue-sharing era.

Each football program in the Power Four conferences will devote approximately $15 million to its roster. How much should be allocated for the quarterback? What about the left tackle? Which free agents (i.e., players in the transfer portal) are available, and how much are they worth?

Roster management will follow the NFL model. With coaches busy coaching (and recruiting), it only makes sense to employ a GM. Schools will find ways to fund the position. It’s too important to ignore.