I released both my annual top 100 drafted prospects and a new 2025 NHL Draft ranking this week, which meant it was time for a giant prospects mailbag.
As always, you all submitted a ton of questions and here I’ve answered a dozen of the big ones in depth, talking 2025 draft versus 2026 draft, Michael Misa versus James Hagens, the top goalies in this year’s draft, this year’s college free-agent class, draft risers and more.
Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length, and similar questions have been grouped together. If you submitted a question and I didn’t answer it below, I’ve been chipping away at the rest of the submissions here.
How do you think the 2025 draft class compares to the 2026 draft class in terms of depth and breadth as well as high-end talent? — Randolph J.
Probably ridiculous to ask about the 2026 draft at this point but I’ve heard how much better it is than this summer’s. Why is that? How deep will that one go in Tier 1 players and who are the names to watch? — Christian P.
There has been a lot of talk about this online and in the media, so I wanted to start with it and nip it in the bud a little because I think it has gotten carried away. A lot of people like me, who do draft work in the public sphere, have spent the pre-trade deadline waxing poetic about how much stronger 2026 is than 2025, and how 2025 is a weak class. I think that gives the wrong idea to the average fan and/or misleads on a few fronts, though.
First of all, it’s still very, very early to be talking about a draft that’s almost 18 months away in any kind of matter-of-fact way.
Second, the strength of drafts is largely led by the players at the top. If 2026 is a strong draft, it’ll be because it has Gavin McKenna. That doesn’t mean when we’re talking about trading late-first-round picks that it’s necessarily any deeper than any other draft. And it’s definitely much too early to be making that determination. Very quickly, though, these things can take on a life of their own. If folks are convinced that 2025 is a weak class and that 2026 is a much stronger one, and that becomes an overwhelming view this far out, I’d sooner add picks in 2025 than subtract them if people are ready to give them away and talk themselves out of this draft.
I also don’t think 2025 is a weak class. It’s not 2024 (with Macklin Celebrini and all those high-end D prospects) or 2023 (with Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Adam Fantilli, Leo Carlsson, Will Smith and company). But we’ve also been spoiled the last two years and I like the top four or five prospects in this year’s draft more than I liked the top four or five picks in 2022 (Juraj Slafkovský, Simon Nemec, Logan Cooley, Shane Wright, Cutter Gauthier) and 2021 (Owen Power, Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish, Luke Hughes, Kent Johnson). It’s true that this draft isn’t very deep beyond those guys, but there are going to be some very good players picked in the mid-to-late first and early on Day 2, as there always are.
I’m building my way-too-early 2026 list now and should have that for you all in March or April, but there are some non-McKenna names to get excited about. Ivar Stenberg is one of the most talented Swedes I’ve watched at his age and looks like a comparable prospect to Leo Carlsson and Lucas Raymond. Viggo Bjorck is a second high-end Swede (though he’s not Stenberg). Ryan Roobroeck and Ethan Belchetz (in that order for me) are both mutants with size and skill. The former applied for OHL exceptional status and while he didn’t get it, he has had an excellent season for Niagara this year. Spokane’s Mathis Preston has speed and skill. Victoria Royals D Keaton Verhoeff is viewed as the top D prospect at this point but I think I’m honestly higher on Vancouver’s Ryan Lin right now (huge fan of that kid’s game). And there are others, including forwards Tynan Lawrence (Muskegon) and Adam Novotny (Mountfield) and D Daxon Rudolph (Prince Albert) who’ve had some buzz at different points. I was also impressed by Swedes Oscar Holmertz, Nils Bartholdsson and Marcus Nordmark at U17 worlds.
Can you rank the top forward prospects from the last three drafts? — Mathieu V.
How would you rate your top five forwards of this class against your top five forwards of the last class? — Anthony S.
Relative to where I was at on them in their draft years, it was probably something like this:
1. Connor Bedard
2. Macklin Celebrini
3. Matvei Michkov
4. Adam Fantilli/Ivan Demidov/Michael Misa
5. James Hagens/Leo Carlsson/Will Smith/Porter Martone
6. Cole Eiserman/Berkly Catton/Zach Benson/Gabe Perreault/Caleb Desnoyers
7. Anton Frondell/Roger McQueen/Cayden Lindstrom/Tij Iginla/Konsta Helenius/Beckett Sennecke/Victor Eklund/Michael Brandsegg-Nygård/Michael Hage
Those sixth and seventh tiers were pretty close, though (Sennecke would be up a tier now, maybe, too). McQueen and Lindstrom might have been in the fifth tier if not for health concerns as well.
Hagens versus Misa: Who has the higher floor? Who has the higher ceiling? Which player would YOU rather have? — Candidateid_44
Very similar floors: productive, plus-skating, skilled, playmaking second-line forwards I think is honestly a given for those two. I think their offensive ceilings are probably pretty close as the same version of that player but on a first line and as a center rather than just a forward (forward leaves it open to both playing some wing). I’d rather have Misa at this point, though, and I think his two-way ceiling at nearly 6-foot-1 versus 5-foot-10/11. Hagens has had a little more trouble getting to the middle this year than I thought he would in college after he always had his nose at the net (I think both are competitive and winning players).
It was Hagens for me entering the year but Misa has looked like an absolute star all year long and there hasn’t been a single lull. I think Misa’s even better than people realize.
Where would your top four goalies from your 2025 NHL Draft ranking slot into your top 20 drafted goalie prospects ranking? — Dale S.
Where would you rank Joshua Ravensbergen and Jack Ivankovic compared to your drafted goalie prospects ranking? — Dylan C.
Joshua Ravensbergen: Back of Tier 2 somewhere in the 5-8 range.
Jack Ivankovic and Pyotr Andreyanov: Front of Tier 3 somewhere in the 9-16 range.
Alexei Medvedev: Tier 3, late teens.
All four would be top 20. Semyon Frolov, my fifth-ranked goalie, would be more of a top 30/40 goalie.
GO DEEPER
Scott Wheeler’s top 20 drafted NHL goalie prospects ranking, winter 2025 edition
Are there any interesting college free agents starting to get some buzz? — Matt R.
I’ve had a few recent conversations with folks about this college free-agent class and have started to turn some attention toward it.
Michigan’s T.J. Hughes is getting a lot of attention from NHL clubs. Michigan doesn’t have the abundance of talent that we’re used to it having this year but Hughes has gone from being very successful playing with good players like Rutger McGroarty to being very successful as more of a driver/go-to guy on his own this year. He’s a 6-foot center who is excellent in the faceoff circle. He plays the bumper on their power play. And his pace and B game, once the question, have started to come.
Holy Cross’ Liam McLinskey, cousin of Rangers prospect Drew Fortescue, is going to get signed. They’re not a program that typically produces NHL talent but he’s the reigning Atlantic Hockey player of the year and a Hobey Baker finalist. He’s a 6-foot-3 right-shot winger who can play in all situations.
I know there’s some NHL interest in Wisconsin’s Christian Fitzgerald, whose counting stats don’t scream but whose elite skating does.
There’s also some interest in Dartmouth sophomore D C.J. Foley (who’s only 21 and is pretty talented/plays huge minutes), Maine captain David Breazeale (a big defenseman who has played big minutes for them), ASU’s Lukas Sillinger (older brother of Blue Jacket Cole, though it sounds like he may be looking at an AHL deal), busy and smooth-skating UND sophomore Jake Livanavage (though that may be more for a year or two from now) and Union junior D John Prokop (one of their leading scorers over the last three seasons).
And one surging name: Army D Mac Gadowsky (son of Penn State head coach Guy Gadowsky, who he has played against!). Gadowsky is a 6-foot-3 D who is up for the Hobey, has been that team’s best player by a country mile and has been on a tear in the last month to emerge as one of the most productive D in all of college hockey and seems to make a play every game.
I’m sure there are others, too. It’s not a great class from what I gather, though.
Give me one guy proving you right, one guy proving you wrong and one guy who’s had the most remarkable improvement since you’ve last ranked him. — John S.
I’ve done redrafts, ranking reviews and players I was wrong about for 2015-2021 and will do 2022 this summer, so I’ll keep the focus of my answer to these questions on some early 2023 and 2024 kids so that I’m not repeating myself.
From the last two drafts, the big ones who at least look like they’re on track to prove me right are Gabe Perreault (my No. 7 pre-draft, taken No. 23) and Andrew Cristall (my No. 13, taken No. 40). I’m happy with my rankings of Ivan Demidov (No. 2), Zeev Buium (No. 4), Michael Hage (No. 15), Liam Greentree (No. 18), Igor Chernyshov (No. 23), Cole Hutson (No. 34), Nick Lardis (No. 38), Luca Cagnoni (No. 45) and others (including some not only that I was higher on but also rightly lower), but Perreault and Cristall are two evaluations that I stuck my neck out on, that I held firm on, that I got messages about and that I think took on a life of their own in terms of groupthink amongst scouts with clubs and evaluators in the public sphere. If you go back and read my reports on both, I think my evaluation was bang on.
There are a couple of 2023 kids that I ranked too high/too low, though, as well. I was too high on Oliver Moore (my No. 9, taken No. 19) and Matthew Wood (my No. 10, taken No. 15), and I was too low on Dmitri Simashev (my No. 35, taken No. 6). I still think sixth was too high for Simashev but he’d be my 14th-ranked 2023 player in a re-draft today (he was the ninth-ranked one on my top 100 drafted prospects list this week, plus graduates Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson and Benson). I thought Moore was going to have a little more offense than he has shown and I thought Wood’s skating wasn’t as big an issue as it is. With Simashev, I understood the length-skating-defensive value and wrote that he had No. 3-4 upside as a two-way D but gave too much weight to the vanilla look of his puck play. There are half a dozen guys I had slotted in front of him that are unforgivable and I didn’t give enough value to the certainty that came with his projection.
The most remarkable improvement since my 2024 draft ranking is maybe Jets prospect Kieron Walton.
Walton was one of the final cuts for my final top 100 for 2024, the Jets took him No. 187 and he’s now one of the OHL’s leading scorers as a 6-foot-6 18-year-old and would have a case for the first round (and would certainly be a second-rounder) in a do-over. Here’s what I wrote about Walton in my missed cuts piece pre-draft:
Walton’s a massive forward with impressive handling and feel on the puck for a player his size. And while he’s not a natural mover, his skating has come along enough to warrant a bet at the draft. Teams wanted to see him impose himself more this season on and off the puck, but not every big man has to be the mean type and he’s got some other qualities that should work up a level, including some sneaky power-play utility around the net and good playmaking feel.
I actually like that evaluation but I wish I’d trusted the talent I’d seen more, even if he didn’t fit the power forward mould, because he looks like he’s going to be an NHL player and his skating has continued to come. Same goes for another OHL big man with real skill, Ilya Protas, who wasn’t in my top 100 for the draft but was in my top 100 drafted prospects this week and was taken in the third round by the Capitals.
For years, I’ve felt that it’s just as hard for 6-foot-5/6/7 forwards to play in an offensive role in the NHL as it is at 5-foot-7/8. You look around the league and there aren’t many of them up front. Kevin Hayes and Blake Wheeler were exceptions to the rule. Brian Boyle was a bottom-sixer. It was a short list. Even skilled big men like Red Wings draftee Elmer Söderblom have struggled to make the jump. Others, like high first-rounders Michael Rasmussen and Logan Brown, were taken too high. But all of these kids are getting more and more talented and maybe that’s true of the big men too. Walton and Protas will be fascinating tests of that (Protas’ older brother Aliaksei is coincidentally the most recent success story and is on pace for 68 points with the Caps this season).
As a fan of a team likely picking in the top five, who’s one current consensus top-five prospect who could fall and, vice versa, someone outside the top 5-10 who could have a Beckett Sennecke-type rise into the top five? — Kevin M.
Who’s the player this year who could make that big move from the second half of Day 1 to the top five? — Daryl W.
We’ve heard about the top four of this year’s draft. As a fan of a team that will likely be drafting outside the top four, could you talk a little more about your rankings and what separates the three Tier 2 players (Desnoyers, Frondell, McQueen) from Tiers 1 or 3? I’m trying to get excited about missing out on the can’t-miss top four prospects. — C J.
Ivan Ryabkin and Logan Hensler were both at one point viewed as top-10 prospects in this draft and could both conceivably go late first now.
Malcolm Spence, William Moore, Sascha Boumedienne and Charlie Trethewey were each at one point viewed as early teens range types and I’d expect Spence to go late first and Moore, Boumedienne and Trethewey to more likely go in the second round now.
Hagens was once the front-runner for No. 1 and at least a surefire top-four guy and while I still think he’s going to go in that range there are teams that have Caleb Desnoyers in that group ahead of him now and he does at least have something to prove in the second half if he wants to go top 2-3.
As far as risers go, Jack Nesbitt certainly qualifies as one (he’s going to be a first-rounder, probably a mid-first, and I wouldn’t even be surprised if he got picked somewhere near 10) and Jake O’Brien has always had some fans but the numbers have increased and his play has surged in the last few months after a bit of a slower start (relatively speaking). I wouldn’t be surprised if a team fell in love with Brady Martin and took him somewhere around the top 10, either.
To answer the last question about the Desnoyers, Frondell, McQueen tier. There was a time when Frondell and McQueen were in the Tier 1 conversation but I think the former’s down-and-back-up season probably hasn’t had quite enough of a jolt to push him back into that mix, and the latter’s health will remain a question until it isn’t (he’s the wild card). Desnoyers is beloved for his two-way game as a 6-foot-1 center who has been more productive than some expected in the QMJHL this season. If he helps the Wildcats to a QMJHL title or Memorial Cup and shows up in the big games like he’s capable of, the top 4-5 is absolutely in play for him. He doesn’t have the pace and skill of Misa or Hagens but he’s an easy player to like and is closer to Tier 1 than Tier 3 for some in the NHL.
All are legit center prospects, though, which has emerged as a bit of a strength of this class and is reason enough for you to be excited if you’re a fan of a team picking outside the top five.
(Photo of Michael Misa and James Hagens: Kevin Sousa and Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images)
