NBA Awards Watch: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić battling for MVP honors

We have roughly eight weeks left in the 2024-25 regular season, which means it’s time to get aggressive about the awards races. The propaganda being spouted on League Pass every night is going to be heavy. Some of it will be deserved, and some of it will make you roll your eyes. But this is awards season, and not just because the Oscars are a couple weeks away.

Let’s start tracking the awards races in this space, and we’ll give an update with a different award emphasis each week. I’m not going to put my top picks for each award out there, just yet. We’re going to get familiar with the betting odds from BetMGM, and those favorites will be the current order for each award. I’ll comment on how much I agree or disagree with said favorites and rankings. Then, next week, we can get into where we might be leaning for each trophy.

Here’s how the Awards Rankings shake out:

Since 2019, I have been fortunate enough to be one of the media members selected to vote on the annual awards. It is an honor I take very seriously, as I try to make sure I select the players I feel are most deserving. With it being public, I also don’t want to end up getting meme’d to eternity for casting a ridiculous vote. I like to do this column down the stretch run of the season, and I think it’s a pretty good gauge of my thoughts/research and those opinions submitted by other writers and the readers of The Athletic to help filter out the players who are less deserving than the eventual vote-getters.

As is the case with all types of rankings and opinions on the internet, I’m sure this will be met with agreements and handshakes rather than yelling and name-calling. If you have a differing opinion, drop those in the comments. Let’s just get this out of the way before you submit:

• Yes, I watch the games.

• Yes, I have looked at the numbers.

• No, I don’t hate that player.

• No, I don’t hate that team.

• If you have a differing opinion and want to roast me, by all means, have at it. Just try to have a point that makes sense. I’m less interested in your bias toward your favorite player or team, but I am very interested in a possible perspective that I have missed or haven’t considered enough. I’m all about acquiring as much information and as many opinions as possible for these awards.

• With each award section, I’m going to give my criteria for how it should be considered while taking my thoughts and what I feel the award has historically emphasized in voting.

• Don’t forget we have the 65-game rule! Players who don’t get to 65 games in a season are not eligible for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or Most Improved Player.

Let’s get into each award with this week’s emphasis on MVP. We’ll have quick-hitter thoughts and criteria for the rest of the awards.

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Most Valuable Player

Criteria:

• Amazing Stats — We judge a lot of these awards based on just how incredible your numbers are. In this era’s offensive and statistical explosion, that becomes even more imperative. If you’re not setting history, are you even the most valuable?

• Player Impact — How does this team fare without its player involved? On/off net rating has A LOT of noise and should be more utilized with full lineup data, but we’re going to boil it down here and take it with a big grain of salt.

• Team Success — Teams below 50-plus victories rarely end up employing the MVP of the league. The more team success, the more feathers in your cap.

• Perceived Value — Do people (players, media, fans) around the NBA think this player’s value is through the roof? Obviously, this is entirely subjective.

• Narrative — Does your story matter more than other stories? A lot of people point to Derrick Rose in 2010-11 for something like this. Or Russell Westbrook averaging a triple-double in 2016-17.

• Clutch Performance — Did you bring it in the closing moments of tight games? Clutch situations are defined as a game within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.

Five Honorable Mentions: Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers | Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks | Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves | Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks | Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets

5. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+30,000 to win)

Quick-hitter: The interesting thing about the BetMGM betting odds is there are only six options on the board right now. Wembanyama comes in at fifth with just absurd odds that I’m not sure should even be listed. The only other option outside of the top five is Karl-Anthony Towns (+50,000), and I can’t imagine going with him as the Knicks’ pick over Brunson. As for Wemby, his numbers and impact are impressive. But his team is six games under .500. He should not be in the top five.

4. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics (+30,000 to win)

Quick-hitter: Tatum is the other player in the top-five odds with 300:1 odds for winning the MVP. It feels like we’re forcefully rounding out a top-five in a two-man race because that’s what the ballot demands. These kinds of odds don’t even really make sense. Tatum is having an excellent year with averages of 27.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists with a very respectable 58.9 percent true shooting mark on the third-best record in the league. Most other years, Tatum would probably have much better odds, but you can’t even really tout the Celtics’ team success in this one.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+12,500 to win)

Quick-hitter: Not quite as long of odds as Wemby and Tatum, but third place being +12,500 is ridiculous. Here we are, though. The numbers are impressive. He’s averaging 31.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.3 blocks. He’s second in the league in scoring. If you only counted his points in the paint, he’d be tied for 40th in scoring. His 21.2 points in the paint per game are the most since Shaquille O’Neal (22.5) in 1999-2000. He’s the reason the Bucks have been able to stay afloat, but they are down to fifth in the East.

2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+300 to win)

Analysis: One of the things I can’t stand the most is when a former MVP, or even a reigning MVP, is having a better statistical season than a previous MVP campaign. And it’s used as a reason that guy should be the MVP again. That is so completely irrelevant to the conversation at hand. It doesn’t matter that Jokić is having a better statistical season than his previous three MVP wins. It doesn’t matter that this is the best basketball of his career. What should factor in is how unreal Jokić is playing this season. Maybe it’s anticipating voter fatigue, but I do not understand how there is such a gulf between him and No. 1 on this list. That might have more to do with where the betting money is instead of reflecting what the voting panel will do.

Let’s go over just some of the Jokić bona fides:

• He is averaging 29.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 10.2 assists. He’s making 57.7 percent from the field, 45.0 percent from deep and 82.3 percent from the free-throw line.

• Denver has a 126.1 offensive rating with him on the floor. Perspective: Cleveland is leading the league with a 121.9 offensive rating.

• Denver has a 103.5 offensive rating with him off the floor. Perspective: Washington has the worst with a 105.7 offensive rating.

• The Nuggets are plus-12.3 per 100 with Jokić on the floor, minus-8.2 with him off the floor. That’s a 20.5-per-100-possessions difference.

• Only Oscar Robertson has averaged at least 29 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists for a season.

• Jokić is fourth in 3-point percentage. Without his end-of-quarter heaves (1-of-16), he would lead the league with 48.0 percent.

Forget his past seasons. Jokić’s current season is historic and worthy of the hardware.

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (-500 to win)

Analysis: Jokić’s dominance doesn’t mean SGA isn’t also deserving. His dominance is a different kind of dominance, but it’s dominance nonetheless. I don’t agree that Gilgeous-Alexander should have such a commanding lead in the betting odds right now, but I do believe it’s more than justifiable to have him as your No. 1 choice for MVP. This might be where a team’s success and dominance for the season overwhelms even an unfathomable season like we’re seeing from Jokić. The Nuggets have been really good, charging lately to put themselves on a 53-win pace to challenge for the No. 2 in the West.

SGA’s Thunder are tied for the best record in the NBA and on pace to win 67 games. A 14-game difference in wins is integral to building a case for SGA to unseat Jokić as MVP. Let’s dive into SGA’s bona fides, as well:

• He is averaging 32.5 points, 6.1 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks. He’s making 52.3 percent from the field, 35.6 percent from deep and 89.7 percent from the line.

• He’s leading the league in scoring by a significant margin (Giannis is second at 31.8).

• OKC has a 121.5 offensive rating with him on the floor. Perspective: That would be second behind Cleveland.

• OKC has a 105.2 offensive rating with him off the floor. Perspective: It would be worse than Washington.

• The Thunder are plus-18.4 per 100 with SGA on the floor, plus-0.4 with him off the floor. That’s an 18.0-per-100-possessions difference.

• Not quite Jokić, but I’m not sure people realize how regular the Thunder have been without SGA out there. They’ve been historically dominant as a team with him.

• He would be the fourth player to average at least 32 points, six assists and five rebounds. Luka Dončić, Michael Jordan and James Harden have each done it twice.

• He’s the only player to average 32-6-5 with at least 1.5 steals and one block. Ever.

If SGA wins the MVP award, it should not be because of voter fatigue. It should be because he’s historically dominant in a different way. Regardless of who wins, this should currently be a neck-and-neck race, and we still have a lot of season left.

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Defensive Player of the Year

Criteria: 

• Player Impact — How does this team’s defense fare without the player involved? Again, we’re using very noisy on/off defensive rating stuff often when it comes to this, and just a reminder they come with silos of salt.

• Player Reputation — Does this player’s reputation lead toward greater conversations about defensive impact and keep opposing teams from challenging them at all costs?

• Team Success — How good is his team’s defense?

• Defensive Stats — We don’t have good defensive stats and metrics, but let’s check out what they’ve done. The award has gone away from a lot of this ever since Marcus Camby inexplicably won the award because of blocks.

Two Honorable Mentions: Lu Dort, OKC Thunder | Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks

3. Jaren Jackson Jr., Memphis Grizzlies (+3,000 to win)

Quick-hitter: The constant on the Grizzlies this season has been Jackson. He’s only missed two games, and his presence on the court has the Grizzlies in the top seven in defensive rating. Jackson won the award two years ago, and he’s had a great defensive season once again. You see a 6.5-point-per-100-possessions regression in defensive rating when Jackson isn’t on the floor. He isn’t blocking shots like he used to, but he’s also not fouling like he used to.

2. Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers (+3,000 to win)

Quick-hitter: I do not think there should be such a divide between Mobley and Wembanyama. We’ll get to Wemby in a second, but Mobley has been arguably the best defensive player in the NBA this season. He guards all over the floor, one through five. Cleveland has arguably the best defense when Mobley is on the floor, and it drops to league-average levels when he’s on the bench. He doesn’t have the sexy block numbers, but he’s as deserving for this award as everybody.

1. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (-2,500 to win)

Quick-hitter: It can be tricky to parse out the likelihood of an award versus what the odds look like because of the betting public’s action. I think that’s where we are with DPOY. That’s not to say Wemby won’t or shouldn’t win it. He’s more than deserving. However, a gulf this wide between first and second in the odds is hard to fathom. Wemby’s block numbers (3.8 per game) are exceptional. Nobody has blocked this many shots per game since Alonzo Mourning (3.9) in 1999. The Spurs are much better with Wembanyama on the floor versus off. But this should be a closer race.

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Rookie of the Year

Criteria:

• Are you a big story in the NBA? Last year, this was “Are you Victor Wembanyama?,” and it was pretty self-explanatory. If you can capture being a storyline as a rookie, you have a huge upper hand.

• Cool Stats for a Rookie — Most of the time, Rookie of the Year goes to the leading rookie scorer.

• Team Success — It usually doesn’t matter for ROY, but team success can be a tiebreaker for some.

Two Honorable Mentions: Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies | Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies

3. Zaccharie Risacher, Atlanta Hawks (+700 to win)

Quick-hitter: The No. 1 pick is second in rookie scoring (11.3) of the qualified players for the leaderboards. Sorry, Jared McCain. Risacher hasn’t shot the ball well, and we’re not seeing the playmaking we hoped from him. But he’s also on a team with Trae Young, so they don’t really ask him to create for others. I would have the two Grizzlies rookies over him.

2. Kel’el Ware, Miami Heat (+350 to win)

Quick-hitter: The Heat rookie big man has been charging hard for this award over the last month and a half. While Jimmy Butler was trying to get traded, Ware was putting up 12.0 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 26.0 minutes over a 22-game span. If he played like this all season, I think he’d be running away with this award. He might be the steal of the draft, outside of Wells and McCain.

1. Stephon Castle, San Antonio Spurs (+125 to win)

Quick-hitter: Because of McCain’s injury, Castle is your leading scorer among rookies. He’s been a terrible outside shooter, but his defense is solid enough for a rookie wing, and we’re seeing great playmaking for him in certain moments. He was my pick for the best player going into the draft, and I think that will hold. I’m not convinced he wins the award, though. At least this is looking less and less like a “Rookie of the Year by default” race.

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Sixth Man of the Year

Criteria: 

• Did you score a lot off the bench? For many years, Sixth Man has gone to the best scorer off the bench.

• Did you anchor the second unit and also boost the starters? As minutes get staggered, being able to anchor a second unit and help out the starters while also on the court matters.

• Seriously, how much did you score? Scoring is really important for this award.

Two Honorable Mentions: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves | Ty Jerome, Cleveland Cavaliers

3. Malik Beasley, Detroit Pistons (+500 to win)

Quick-hitter: Beasley is your second in the league in bench scoring at 16.5 points per game. He’s been incendiary shooting the ball for the revived Pistons. Maybe they thought they’d be getting this kind of production out of Tim Hardaway Jr. instead of Beasley, but now you can’t have a close Pistons game without him on the floor. He’s been one of their best players.

Also, let me clear up why Amen Thompson isn’t on my honorable mentions list. While he technically qualifies for the award right now (more games coming off the bench than started), he is trending hard toward being ineligible. I just accepted that trend and decided to bump him. He’s currently fifth in betting odds.

2. De’Andre Hunter, Cleveland Cavaliers (+250 to win)

Quick-hitter: We’ll see where this goes for Hunter. He was traded to the Cavs at the deadline and has since started one game and come off the bench for the other with Cleveland. He’d have to start pretty much the rest of the season to be ineligible for the award. Hunter’s 18.8 points per game lead all bench scorers, but his role on the Cavs won’t be as scoring dependent as we saw in Atlanta. He was making a charge to possibly steal this award, but now he might find himself falling back a bit.

1. Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics (-160 to win)

Quick-hitter: Even during the title run last season, I never thought of Pritchard as a consequential player. He wasn’t bad, but, to me, he was a replacement-level backup point guard. This year? This dude is one of the most important backup players in the league. And playing like this, he could thrive on any team. He prepared for this season with some extreme training, and it’s currently his award to lose.

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Coach of the Year

Criteria:

• Team Expectations — If a team surprises us based on preseason expectations, a coach will usually jump up in the voting for this award.
• Team Success — This sort of ties into the first criterion, but how good a team is matters a lot here.
• Could you get fired soon? We’ve had a surprising number of Coach of the Year winners fired soon after winning.

Two Honorable Mentions: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies | Mark Daigneault, OKC Thunder

3. J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons (+1,600 to win)

Quick-hitter: This was the worst team in the NBA a year ago. Historically embarrassing. The Pistons made a coaching change, brought in a couple of good veterans and have been thriving. They’re comfortably in the top six in the East, and Bickerstaff has them eliminating a lot of the mistakes we saw minute after minute last season. Most other years, he’d easily win this.

2. Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets (+900 to win)

Quick-hitter: We saw the groundwork of this season a year ago when Udoka’s first campaign with the Rockets had this young team finish with 41 wins. This season, they’ve made a big leap in setting the tone early and closing out games. Their defense is tremendous, and we’re seeing leaps from Şengün and Amen Thompson. They still struggle to shoot, but Udoka has them looking as dangerous as almost anybody.

1. Kenny Atkinson, Cleveland Cavaliers (-700 to win)

Quick-hitter: Bickerstaff seemed scapegoated for the failures of an imbalanced roster when he was fired last summer. The Cavs were supposed to be a team in desperate need of breaking up their backcourt and frontcourt redundancies. Atkinson came in, transformed their offense with motion and timing, and they’re now on pace to challenge for the best regular season in Cavs history. He’s the heavy favorite for a reason.

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Most Improved Player

Criteria: 

• Did you improve? Self-explanatory. I will also add that I am avoiding throwing second-year players into the mix for this award.
• Did your improvement happen last year and we just now noticed? It feels like a lot of winners of this award actually improved in the previous season but held it to be true improvement the year they won it.

Two Honorable Mentions: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers | Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks

3. Tyler Herro, Miami Heat (+1,300 to win)

Quick-hitter: He has career-bests in points, rebounds, assists and minutes. He made the leap from 2022 Sixth Man of the Year to an All-Star in 2025. This is the first year he’s had a true shooting percentage (60.7) over 60. He’s improved in almost every facet of the game, but it’s a slight improvement in many categories rather than something dramatic. He’s also done all of this while in a super chaotic situation, which should count for something.

2. Norman Powell, LA Clippers (+110 to win)

Quick-hitter: He’s scoring 24.2 points per game not simply because he’s averaging more shot attempts than ever. Powell is doing this at the most efficient clip of his career, as well. We’ve seen his true shooting percentage rise each of the last four years, and he’s currently at 63.3 percent. He’s joined Jokić, Towns, SGA and Kevin Durant as the only players in the NBA to average 24 or more points with a true shooting percentage of 63 or better.

1. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons (-125 to win)

Quick-hitter: Putting up big numbers on a bad team happens a lot. Learning how to turn those big numbers into meaningful, winning basketball is really difficult. Cunningham continues to figure that out more and more. I was highly critical of him last season because I didn’t feel like he was trying to take over games the way a young, franchise player should when a team is stuck in a bad place. I would rather a young player go 0 of 12 in a fourth quarter than 1-of-3 and defer to teammates without playmaking. Since Jaden Ivey has gone down with his injury, we’ve seen Cunningham embrace closing out games in a way he hadn’t previously. That’s more important growth than any statistical improvement.

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(Top photo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)