Olympic hockey stock watch: Risers, fallers, lines that work and other learnings from 4 Nations

By Chris Johnston, Arpon Basu, Fluto Shinzawa and Michael Russo

The 4 Nations Face-Off is in the books, with Canada capping a wildly successful event in dramatic fashion Thursday night on Connor McDavid’s overtime dagger to win 3-2 over the United States in the final.

The Canadian championship completes hockey’s first foray into international best-on-best hockey since 2016. It won’t be nearly so long until the next, which will come on an even bigger stage next February.

Can Canada carry over its 4 Nations success to Milan and win Olympic gold? Will the U.S. use its runner-up finish as inspiration to reach greater heights? Will Sweden build on its confidence after gaining at least a point in each game in 4 Nations? Will Finland find the right formula next time?

We’ll have to wait a year to find out, but with notes in hand from 4 Nations, the roster-building is already underway for Olympic general managers.

After spending two weeks around the four 4 Nations teams — and their coaches and execs — here are five things we expect them to take away from this event as they look at the next, even bigger competition.

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Canada

Chemistry lesson

With so much time having elapsed between best-on-best events, Team Canada was drawing up its forward lines from scratch.

It took some juggling over a couple of games before they landed on pairings that worked effectively across the top three lines:

Connor McDavid-Brayden Point
Nathan MacKinnon-Sidney Crosby
Anthony Cirelli-Brandon Hagel

The decision to move Point up to McDavid’s line for the Finland game was a turning point. His speed and offensive instincts proved to be a great complement to the world’s best player. The MacKinnon and Crosby duo was a constant throughout, with the summer skating buddies from Halifax meshing well from the get-go. And the Tampa Bay Lightning teammates Cirelli and Hagel formed the heartbeat of the checking line.

That familiarity should be leaned on when they get the team back together again next February.

Crosby’s still got it

There will be a day when Crosby is no longer among the elite of the elite. That day is not today.

It bodes well for next year’s Olympic squad that the 37-year-old remains such an effective 200-foot force. Crosby was a tone-setter at 4 Nations, both on the ice and off it, despite playing through injury and being the oldest skater in a tournament played at warp speed.

Playing the wing, he still managed to use his brain to change the game. He even got in on the forecheck to create chances in the offensive zone. And his open-ice hit on Mikael Granlund and ensuing empty-net goal against Finland was exactly what was needed in a nervy moment.

Crosby is completely at home wearing Canada’s “C” and should reprise the role in Milan.

While there’s a case to be made for passing the torch to McDavid, it’s unlikely McDavid would even accept the honor with Crosby still playing like this.

The aging curve

It was difficult watching Brad Marchand struggle to keep up with the pace for much of the tournament. He no longer possesses the speed needed to beat a defenseman wide at this level and was clumsy with rushed puck touches at times, though his competitiveness was still apparent in the biggest game, when he looked dangerous at times.

The overall dip in his play, though, was reflected in his minimal ice time.

While Marchand is a player Hockey Canada has deep affinity for — he wore the “A” when Cale Makar was unable to play the first game against the Americans — there’s a real chance the 36-year-old will have aged out by the time the Olympics come around. He’ll need to have a strong showing early next season to remain in the mix. Had he not been named as one of the original six selections to this team in June, he may not have been here at all.

Drew Doughty finds himself in a similar situation at age 35. He had some misadventures during the 4 Nations, though it’s important to note he only played six NHL games this season before the tournament after suffering a broken ankle in training camp. His footspeed made for some challenging moments, and he’s certainly not a lock for a third Olympic appearance.

Surprises on defense

Travis Sanheim wound up playing the final three games after Shea Theodore was injured in the opener. His performance left a positive impression on the team’s decision-makers.

Sanheim brings useful versatility to a short-term event because he’s comfortable playing on both sides of the ice and has penalty-killing chops. A big body who skates well, he was able to handle the pace of the 4 Nations tournament and will get serious consideration for a spot at next year’s Milan Olympics.

The same can be said for Thomas Harley, who was brought in late on emergency standby and got pressed into action for the round-robin game against the U.S. He’d only skated twice by himself in the days beforehand while on break from the NHL season and still didn’t look out of place. Harley was assertive and poised in the championship rematch after surprisingly drawing in for Josh Morrissey, who woke up from his afternoon nap feeling ill.

The 23-year-old is only getting started with Canada at this level.

Binnington’s crease

Reports of Canada’s goaltending crisis may have been overstated. While Jordan Binnington didn’t deliver as clean of a tournament as his predecessor Carey Price did during the 2014 Olympics and 2016 World Cup, he played at a high enough level in the preliminary games to get Canada into the final, which was all the management and coaching staffs were asking for.

And then in the final, he delivered a performance for the ages.

With Binnington being given the start in all four games here, you’d have to imagine he’s a getting one of the three Olympic jobs next February and has an inside track on being the starter.

Beyond Binnington, the other spots are very much up for grabs based on performance between then and now.

— Chris Johnston

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Finland

It’s no longer Saros’ job to lose

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen did not play a single minute in the tournament, but he has an opportunity to be the man in Milan. So does Leevi Meriläinen. And so do Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen.

Saros was benched after a 6-1 loss to the United States in the tournament opener, Lankinen started the next two games and was pulled for Saros after allowing four goals on 13 shots in the first 25 minutes of Finland’s final game, against Canada. Between the two of them, Lankinen and Saros had an .843 save percentage. For Finland to have a chance in Italy, the goaltending will need to be much better.

It would be fair to consider the next 10 months an open audition for the starter’s job, and anyone will be considered.

It was long assumed this would be Saros’ job to lose, and he has effectively lost it. He can still earn it back, but it’s an open competition now.

The top-six pairs need a mix up

Finland had two offensive pairings they stuck with throughout the tournament: Aleksander Barkov with Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz with Sebastian Aho. Players moved in and out next to them, but those duos stuck. And they did not produce.

Rantanen and Barkov played extremely well and scored a goal apiece, but Finland needed more from its go-to duo to make up for the depth gap between it and other top countries. Hintz and Aho playing together was a total miss; they were ineffective and unproductive.

Interestingly, after the final game against Canada, coach Antti Pennanen took responsibility for Hintz and Aho’s underwhelming tournament. Perhaps the fact that he never split them up has something to do with their performance.

Having Mikael Granlund and Patrik Laine serve as wild cards who moved around the lineup might need to be reconsidered. Granlund was one of the tournament’s top scorers and was consistently dangerous. Laine was far from consistent but seemed to improve his play when taken out of the top six and finished with three assists.

The Panthers’ checking pair is a go

One pairing up front that worked well, unsurprisingly, was the Florida Panthers duo of Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen. They generated zone time, defended well against top opponents and brought energy, whether they were playing with Granlund or Laine. This is a pairing Finland will be able to count on to defend, play with energy and possess the puck, and both Lundell and Luostarinen are young players who are still improving. They should be even better in Italy.

The defense has good options

Nikolas Matinpalo and Urho Vaakanainen might have ugly minus-5 ratings next to their names, but under the circumstances, they did pretty well in Finland’s bottom pair. Henri Jokiharju also played well. All three were last-minute injury replacements, for Miro Heiskanen, Rasmus Ristolainen and Jani Hakanpää.

Having Heiskanen in Italy will obviously be a game-changer for Finland. The fact that they were as competitive as they were while missing the one player they absolutely could not miss bodes well for the Olympics. Ristolainen will be in that top four with Heiskanen, Esa Lindell and Niko Mikkola, who had an excellent tournament.

After that, the third pairing at the Olympics probably won’t be nearly as bad as everyone might have assumed. We’ll see if someone like Matinpalo can use his performance in this tournament as a springboard to better results in the NHL, but the Finnish depth on defense is not as shallow as it looked two weeks ago.

Next man up?

There are spots up for grabs on this team. Teuvo Teräväinen, who has 40 points in 55 games with the Chicago Blackhawks, was benched in one game and scratched in another. Joel Armia was a healthy scratch, as well, and Erik Haula was fine. Kaapo Kakko probably helped himself with his showing, but he’s no sure thing either.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi was the most notable NHL forward not to be named to this team, and he could be in the mix a year from now. Konsta Helenius, the No. 14 pick in last year’s NHL Draft, has 20 points in 43 games in AHL Rochester. If he were to make the Buffalo Sabres out of training camp and get off to a hot start, he could be another option. Joakim Kemell, Brad Lambert and Aatu Räty are in similar situations with the Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets and Vancouver Canucks, respectively.

It is also possible Finland take a few players from the AHL or Liiga in Finland to fill out the roster, something they were not allowed to do at the 4 Nations.

— Arpon Basu

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Sweden

Nyquist is in trouble

Gustav Nyquist put Sweden on the board against the United States by tipping an Erik Karlsson shot past Jake Oettinger. It was Nyquist’s lone point of the tournament.

But the more telling statistic was 9:42, Nyquist’s average ice time per game — and the lowest mark of any player for Sweden. The team’s No. 4 left wing had trouble keeping pace with his surroundings. At 35, the game will not speed up over the next year. Not only that, but Nyquist will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season. His NHL future is uncertain.

William Karlsson, who was unavailable because of an injury, is an upgrade over Nyquist in all areas. Leo Carlsson, added to the roster because of Karlsson’s withdrawal, should be in the running for the Olympics with another year of experience.

The Pettersson problem

Elias Pettersson will make the Olympic roster. He is too good not to. But Pettersson has a lot to fix with Sam Hallam. By the U.S. game, the Sweden coach saw no choice but to move the ghostly Pettersson to left wing. Pettersson responded with another zero-point performance. He finished the tournament without a point.

Somehow, whether it’s through a mental reset or physical improvement, Pettersson has to get back to earlier-career thresholds.

Hallam loves Eriksson Ek

Pettersson’s skill is undeniable. Same goes for Mika Zibanejad. It is no surprise that Hallam designated Pettersson and Zibanejad as his top two centers.

But Joel Eriksson Ek became Hallam’s most trusted all-situations center at 4 Nations, and for good reason. Eriksson Ek did everything from taking defensive-zone faceoffs to stationing himself in front of the attacking net. The Minnesota Wild center does not have the hands, vision or touch of Pettersson and Zibanejad. But his hockey sense, strength on the puck and three-zone dependability will make him Sweden’s go-to do-everything center in 2026.

Steep dropoff for Ekholm

The Swedes were counting on Mattias Ekholm. The Edmonton Oilers defenseman was one of three alternate captains. He started on the No. 2 pair with Erik Karlsson, but the Canadians and Finns regularly put the 34-year-old on the back foot, to the point where Ekholm was scheduled to be a healthy scratch against the Americans. Illnesses to Mika Zibanejad and Rickard Rakell put Ekholm back in as the seventh defenseman.

Hampus Lindholm, unavailable for the 4 Nations because of an injury, could be a better Olympic alternative. Lindholm is not as physical as Ekholm but is a better skater.

Don’t expect changes in goal

Samuel Ersson took a big step with his win against the Americans. He was Sweden’s best player.

But Ersson, added after Jacob Markstrom injured his knee, remains a long shot to make the 2026 roster. A healthy Markstrom deserves to be there. So do Filip Gustavsson and Linus Ullmark.

Ersson, 25, should be part of the next generation.

— Fluto Shinzawa

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United States

Tkachuk brothers go together

Matthew and Brady Tkachuk were the heartbeats for the Americans, and you can bet Mike Sullivan, who will also coach the United States in the Olympics, won’t start with them on different lines in Milan, as he did in Montreal.

Sullivan put the brothers together in the second period of the opener against Finland, and it turned the game around. It dragged Jack Eichel into the fight, as well. Eichel was a different player against Sweden, when Matthew missed the game and Brady got hurt in the first period and didn’t return.

The Tkachuks combined for five goals and an assist against Finland and set the tone in the prelim game against Canada by each fighting in the first three seconds.

“They’re just so much fun to watch,” defenseman Charlie McAvoy said early in the tournament. “They’re like the Bash Brothers a little bit.”

Unfortunately for the Americans, Matthew came into the final injured and could only play 15 shifts, with none in the third period or overtime. He was limping badly as he left the arena.

Larkin, Boldy solidify their spots

Dylan Larkin and Matt Boldy scored the winning goals against Finland and Canada (the first game), respectively, and were as consistent as they come in the tournament.

Boldy got better and better as the tournament went — and got to the dirty areas, which has been the biggest criticism of him in the playoffs for the Minnesota Wild. The World Juniors gold medalist from 2021 was a threat in each game. It was vindication after some criticized U.S. general manager Bill Guerin for putting him on the team, saying it was favoritism for a player Guerin also manages as Wild GM.

Larkin, meanwhile, could be in line for an elevated role in the Olympics.

The Red Wings captain started as a fourth-line winger, accepted that role and ended up as third-line center between J.T. Miller and Boldy. When Matthew Tkachuk left the final, Larkin showed how handy he is by popping up to the top six.

He’ll just keep getting more responsibility because he’s so fast and versatile.

Hughes, Connor disappoint

The difference in the tournament? Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid combined for seven goals. Jack Hughes, Kyle Connor, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel and J.T. Miller combined for zero.

There’s no doubt Hughes and Connor, in particular, left you wanting more.

Playing on the top line with Jake Guentzel and Matthews, something was up with Hughes all tournament. He fumbled the puck constantly, especially in prime shooting positions. Maybe not playing center — and thus not being in motion as much — was part of it. It was hard for him to get the puck on the wall. But also, the coaches clearly didn’t want him to get overmatched defensively playing against the top centers in the tournament. That’ll have to be resolved before Milan.

As for Connor, Sullivan called his tournament a “mixed bag,” which was being kind. He didn’t use his speed or shot or get to the inside before being scratched in the final.

This isn’t to say Hughes is in danger of not making the Olympic roster, and that probably goes for the goal-scoring Connor, as well.

But there’s no doubt Guerin and his staff left some great forwards off this roster — Tage Thompson, Jason Robertson, Clayton Keller, Cole Caufield — so there is pressure on underperformers to have good starts next season.

Younger players like Matthew Knies and Logan Cooley will be pushing to make the team, as well. Perhaps older guys like Brock Nelson and Chris Kreider will age out.

Fox could be in trouble

Quinn Hughes, Zach Werenski, McAvoy, Brock Faber, Jaccob Slavin and Jake Sanderson are likely Olympic shoo-ins.

Werenski, a Norris Trophy contender this season, led the tournament in scoring with six points (all assists). McAvoy was a physical force until he got hurt, and Slavin and Faber were a tremendous shutdown pair. Sanderson, 22, is only on the rise.

Noah Hanifin was up and down, especially in the first half of the game against Finland and in the title game against Canada.

Fox, to be blunt, was not good. He’s had a tough year with the Rangers, as well, and the pace of play seemed too fast for the 2021 Norris Trophy winner. He was on for two goals in the final and could be expendable in the Olympics if Hughes and Werenski are the power-play guys.

The problem is there’s no obvious choices to replace Fox. John Carlson didn’t make the 4 Nations team because the U.S. was worried about his foot speed. Maybe K’Andre Miller improves. Neal Pionk has had a strong season for Winnipeg. And the Americans are keeping an eye on Chicago Blackhawks youngster Alex Vlasic.

Goaltending will be the strength … again

It’s a luxury of riches in net for the Americans.

Connor Hellebuyck could be looking at his second consecutive Norris Trophy and showed after a couple of bad postseasons that he can handle the pressure. It started rocky when he gave up a rough goal to open the tournament against Finland, but he finished 2-1 with a 1.59 goals-against average and .932 save percentage.

Jake Oettinger played one game against Sweden and was hardly the reason the short-handed Americans lost 2-1.

And then there’s Jeremy Swayman, Calder Trophy contender Dustin Wolf and oft-injured Thatcher Demko, who’ll be vying for the third spot.

— Michael Russo

(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic, with photos by Minas Panagiotakis and Andre Ringuette / Getty Images)