We’re back, because the NHL regular season is back. Not very much of it, though, with only two days’ worth of games to go on for this week’s rankings. In other words, don’t expect many big changes from a few weeks ago.
Don’t expect a ton of deep dives on those games either, because I’ll be honest, it was a little tough to get hyped for matchups like Ducks/Bruins and Sharks/Flames after eight days of high-stakes best-on-best. Just a slight downshift in intensity, you might say. So sure, we’ll talk NHL where we need to. But we’re also going to get in one last round of 4 Nations talk, starting right now.
Bonus five: Final thoughts on the 4 Nations Face-off
5. Jaccob Slavin — Has anyone ever gone from underrated to so underrated they’re overrated to “wait, even though we’re all saying he’s underrated I think he might somehow still be underrated” in one week? I’m not completely sure, but I do know there was a certain point in this tournament when Slavin broke my brain. I might still be having nightmares years from now.
4. Elias Pettersson and Adam Fox — One of the sure things of any short tournament is that a few star players will string together bad games and everyone will freak out, including people who’d be smart enough never to overreact to a bad three-game stretch in the regular season. But when the spotlight is brighter and everything feels more important, suddenly a mild slump becomes much more. And it’s almost always nonsense.
Almost. I’m a bit worried about these two guys.
Pettersson is the easy one. He’s coming off a bizarre year-long stretch that saw him sign a monster extension, struggle through a brutal postseason, and then look miserable while all the J.T. Miller drama played out. With that scenario finally over, 4 Nations felt like an ideal chance for him to rediscover his game, and maybe even a little bit of joy in playing it. Instead, he was all but invisible. No points, no real chances and barely any ice time. With that NMC looming, I think it’s officially time to be concerned here.
As for Fox, you certainly can’t say he wasn’t noticeable. But that’s not always a good thing for a defenseman, and Fox had a tough tournament in which he looked outmatched for stretches. Fox is a Norris winner, but that was in 2021, and it’s starting to feel like it’s fair to ask whether he’s already hit his peak before settling in as a very-good-but-maybe-not-quite-elite player. That question seems to be resonating in New York — check the comments on this piece. It’s not like the Rangers can afford much more in the way of bad news this season, so here’s hoping Fox’s showing was a blip and not a vision of the future.
3. Brady Tkachuk — If I’m a Senators fan, I’m very happy about two things. First, that Tkachuk got to play in by far the biggest hockey games of his life, and looked every bit like the sort of difference-maker who can elevate his game in big moments. And second, that the Sens are on their way to a playoff appearance this year, because good luck selling Tkachuk on a state of perpetual rebuild after the week he just had. Fans in Ottawa know the “maybe Brady will want to go play with his brother down south” narratives are coming, and a playoff run would help shut that noise off before it gets a chance to really get going.
Not ranked: Brad Marchand — Good tournament, great soundbites, more international gold for the collection, but the entire country is now back to hating you. Enjoy riding out the season and missing the playoffs, you cheap-shotting bum. But uh, stay healthy for 2026, we’ll need you buddy jerkface.
2. These guys who all get one sentence each — Zach Werenski is an absolute stud. Erik Karlsson is potentially tradeable again. Dylan Larkin and (especially) Lucas Raymond might be even better than we think. Basically every Ranger looked bad, which seems suboptimal. The Charlie McAvoy situation is a mess and you hope he’s going to be OK, but you’re telling me the dude was already hurt when he sent Connor McDavid into low-earth orbit? Brock Nelson is maybe not the big-game deadline target we thought he might be. Mikko Rantanen didn’t scare anyone and I am trying not to worry. Jack Hughes was fine defensively but just barely outscored his brothers, who are both defensemen and also did not play. Drew Doughty, still a stud. Also that one player you like is really good so now you can’t say I didn’t mention him.
1. Jordan Binnington — I apologize. While I see no need to go digging for specific soundbites, it’s possible I may have spent the days before Thursday’s final publicly suggesting that Binnington wasn’t as good as Connor Hellebuyck, just based on flimsy premises like his numbers, the eye test or the way he kept giving up easy goals every game. This was, of course, incorrect. Binnington was actually giving up those goals on purpose to lull the Americans into a false sense of security before morphing into late-90s Dominik Hasek as soon as overtime arrived.
Brilliant, and I should have seen it coming. If we ever meet, our new national hero gets to throw one water bottle at my head.
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
RIP to the legendary Mike Lange, one of the most memorable voices in hockey history. Rossi nails the tribute here.
5. Vegas Golden Knights (34-17-6, +33 true goals differential*) — We all realize they’re going to LTIR Shea Theodore and then use the cap room to trade for Rantanen, right? Start processing that now, you don’t want to take the full brunt of the rage all at once when it happens.
4. Edmonton Oilers (34-19-4, +24) — I think we can all agree there’s a non-zero chance Leon Draisaitl spent the last two weeks sitting at home and stewing over all the world’s other top players having fun without him, and will now go nuclear on the league for the rest of the season.
3. Dallas Stars (37-18-2, +45) — Did you enjoy the Thomas Harley coming out party last week? As a guy who maybe got just a little bit ahead of myself when I had him as my long-shot Norris pick, I sure did. Also, based on last night, it’s possible Jason Robertson is just a little bit cranky about being left off of Team USA.
2. Washington Capitals (38-11-8, +68) — Just a brutal tournament for all the Capitals stars, I didn’t notice a single one of them the whole time. But I suppose it’s possible that absolutely speed-bagging the Penguins and the Oilers in one weekend will be a small consolation.
1. Winnipeg Jets (40-14-3, +68) — It was a weird 4 Nations final to be a Jets fan. Hellebuyck didn’t end up stealing gold, but looked fantastic even in defeat. Josh Morrissey got sick and couldn’t play. And Kyle Connor was somehow a healthy scratch despite being the leading goal scorer for a team that would finish one goal short. None of that changes my view of the Jets as the team to beat right now.
(Also, Saturday night’s shootout win over the Blues means we can now congratulate the Maple Leafs, annual winner of the “last team standing without a shootout” award. The trophy is in the mail.)
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Team Canada — Sorry, let’s watch the goal again real quick, just to refresh our memories.
AS CALLED ON:
Canadian TV (English)
Canadian TV (French)
NHL Radio
ESPN Deportes
— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog.lol) February 20, 2025 at 11:34 PM
If I were drawing up the defense, I probably wouldn’t leave the best player in the world wide open there, but the Americans did just that and then watched him pass the puck to Connor McDavid. (That’s right, Mitch Marner is good again. Try to keep up.)
We didn’t learn a ton about this team over the tournament, beyond that Sam Bennett is better than you thought and Brandon Hagel has jokes. Instead, 4 Nations was about confirming what we already knew but may have had room to doubt: Sidney Crosby is the greatest best-on-best player of all time, Connor McDavid can indeed win the big one and Nathan MacKinnon is unstoppable when he wants to be, at least for the first 65 minutes of every game.
And sure, the goaltending is still a question mark. It all worked out in the end this time, but maybe you bring Logan Thompson next time, just in case.
This wasn’t the 2014 team, rolling through a best-on-best with such ruthless efficiency that today’s fans barely even remember that tournament. The gap between Canada and the U.S. has all but disappeared, another key thing we already suspected we knew. And of course, teams like Finland and Sweden and beyond will have a thing or two to say about any future coronations.
Enjoy the win for now, and then get ready to do it all over again in another year. As defending champs. Again.
The bottom five
The five teams headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for a top pick that could be James Hagens, Matthew Schaefer or someone else.
The league announced that this year’s draft will be held in Los Angeles on June 27 and 28. Remember, it’s the debut of the decentralized format, where the top prospects will be in attendance but the teams themselves will not. The NHL is promising a “creative approach,” and yes, that does fill me with a sense of dread, thanks for asking.
5. Pittsburgh Penguins (23-27-9, -40) — Yeah, I’m starting to think they may not make a big second-half run.
4. Buffalo Sabres (23-27-5, -9) — Siri, please find me a metaphor for the Sabres season that’s a little too on-the-nose. Literally.
Buffalo Sabres color commentator Rob Ray took a puck to the face, and he made it loud and clear when he got hit. 🏒🎙️🤬🤕pic.twitter.com/NgYa5z96a3
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) February 23, 2025
Yep, that works. Anyway, happy anniversary to those who celebrate.
3. Nashville Predators (20-29-7, -40) — After an ugly 4 Nations, you wonder what the next step will be with Juuse Saros. He’s been the NHL’s workhorse for years now, and it didn’t seem to bother him. But with the season already lost, you wonder if it would make sense for the Predators to ease off down the stretch, if only to set him up for a rebound next year. Given his contract, they’ll desperately need one. Getting badly outplayed by Nico Daws probably wasn’t the start he was looking for.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (17-33-7, -48) — The big news is Seth Jones asking for a trade. It’s worth noting that asking is not the same as demanding, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Jones and the five full years left of his $9.5 million cap hit are dealt during the season, but it’s one more sign that patience is running out for the post-tank Hawks to find their way back to playing meaningful hockey.
Also, shout out to Frank Pellico.
1. San Jose Sharks (15-36-7, -65) — It’s all about the deadline now, and Eric has your trade tiers. The Tyler Toffoli scenario is interesting, but Eric thinks it’s unlikely.
Not ranked: Team USA — Let’s check in on how the Americans are responding after very publicly calling their shot and then falling just short.
Team USA, stung by 4 Nations loss, draws inspiration from Olympics: ‘That’s the big one’
— Michael Russo (@RussoHockey) February 21, 2025
Ah. Yes, of course. I might have thought that the championship game against your longtime rival, held on your home ice, in front of one of the largest audiences to ever watch a hockey game in your country, that you vowed to win on behalf of your president, might be “the big one.” But no, it was actually the next tournament that really mattered all along. Good to know.
And sure, the Americans are in great shape to win in Italy next year, and again at the 2028 World Cup. The roster they sent to the 4 Nations was young enough that there’s no reason to expect a major overhaul. There will be changes, because there always are, and the talent pool is deep enough that there are very good players who didn’t make this roster and will be looking to force their way in next time. The future is bright.
The frustration is that the future has been bright for decades now, and Team USA can’t quite get it across the finish line. They came as close as you possibly can last week, ending up one goal away in a tournament where several of their best players weren’t available by the end. Would a Quinn Hughes or a Matthew Tkachuk or a Charlie McAvoy have been the difference? Would all three? We’ll never know for sure, but it’s not exactly hard to imagine.
It’s possible, although not guaranteed, that this roster will be healthier and deeper next year. It’s also possible they’ll get elite goaltending again, although with that position you’re never sure. Who knows if they’ll have to go through some version of a Russian team. And of course, a year is a long enough time frame for new stars to emerge and change the balance of power. But however it plays out, the Americans will head into next year as strong contenders at the very least, if not the outright favorites.
And they’ll be motivated, because apparently the next one is the big one.
(Photo of Sidney Crosby and Matthew Tkachuk: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
