If any team can shake up the trade market, it’s the Colorado Avalanche.
Colorado has already pulled off a number of deals this season. Management successfully overhauled the crease and sent shockwaves through the NHL with the Mikko Rantanen trade. Could there still be more to come?
While the Avalanche look like a playoff lock with their current group, their odds of going the distance are slim. So management may turn back to the trade market to address remaining areas of weakness — including down the middle of the second line.
The Avalanche took a big swing to address that last season by trading defenseman Bowen Byram for center Casey Mittelstadt. He fit seamlessly in Colorado and helped reset the depth chart down the stretch and into the playoffs, which earned him a three-year extension carrying a $5.75 million cap hit.
But less than a year later, Mittelstadt has fallen out of favor in Colorado, landing him on The Athletic’s trade board.
What has gone wrong for Mittelstadt this season
Mittelstadt was living up to the hype when Buffalo traded him. He had emerged as a steady playmaker in its middle six and was hitting his stride on the scoresheet. But some sustainability questions may have given the Sabres’ front office pause ahead of his expiring contract. The Sabres had scored 3.66 goals per 60 in Mittelstadt’s five-on-five minutes in 2023-24, but their expected goal pace fell a full goal below that.
Mittelstadt answered some of those concerns with the Avalanche. The team still outpaced expectations in his minutes down the stretch, but there was more substance below that. According to All Three Zones tracking, his shot assist volume stayed pretty consistent between Buffalo and Colorado in the regular season. The key difference was the quality of that puck movement — he generated more high-danger passes and was set up by them more often.
Despite not being the fastest skater, Mittelstadt kept up with the Avalanche’s up-tempo style well down the stretch and into the playoffs. That was especially true in Round 1 against the Winnipeg Jets, when he helped drive play with a 61 percent expected goal rate and a 5-3 five-on-five scoring edge in his minutes.
But that impact from last spring hasn’t carried into this season. While he has had a couple standout games — last month he put up three points against the Dallas Stars and dominated play in his minutes — they are few and far between this year.
Mittelstadt had some scoring luck when he was on the top power-play unit early this season, but his five-on-five game has taken a major step back. He has only scored at a rate of 1.45 points per 60, reminiscent of those earlier years in Buffalo. It isn’t a matter of poor puck luck in his minutes, either. Almost every element of his game has trended in the wrong direction.
The Avalanche are below break-even in his minutes in terms of both expected and actual goal share, both of which are hovering around the 45 percent mark. Mittelstadt’s play on both sides of the puck contributes to that. Defense has always been an area of weakness for him, but over the last couple of seasons, his offense has helped make up for it. This year, the team is only mustering 1.99 expected goals per 60 in his minutes.
Mittelstadt has always been a pass-first player, but it has been to a fault this year. He has passed away scoring chances, leading to a downtick in his shot and expected goal creation. But even more concerning is how much his puck-moving ability has tanked. Mittelstadt is entering the zone less often and less efficiently and isn’t setting up as many scoring chances in transition. His pass volume and quality have also taken a hit.
Combine that lackluster offense with disastrous defense and it’s easy to see why the Avalanche would want to move on. But in his defense, there is one more consideration — the rotating cast of wingers around him. There have been a lot of key injuries in Colorado this season, including to players projected to play on his wing. Artturi Lehkonen and Jonathan Drouin both missed time and Valeri Nichushkin has only been available for 21 of the team’s 59 games. That has led to more minutes with players like Ross Colton, Logan O’Connor and Nikolai Kovalenko, who aren’t second-line caliber. But Mittelstadt also shared the ice with Rantanen for 175 five-on-five minutes and couldn’t find his game in that time either.
Maybe Mittelstadt can rebound when Nichushkin returns and remind the Avalanche why they bet on him. But management may want more certainty on their second line, especially in the post-Rantanen era.
Why teams may be interested, despite his down season
Mittelstadt may be struggling, but a handful of teams could still pursue the center.
His position is a prime reason why. There is always a high demand for centers. Just look at last year’s deadline: first-round picks were part of the return for rentals Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan. The Seattle Kraken were able to command a second- and fourth-round pick for Alex Wennberg.
Mittelstadt isn’t a pending unrestricted free agent, so an acquiring team has to be ready to commit to him for the next couple of seasons. However, that cost-control factor may be a perk for some teams that want more financial certainty over the next couple of seasons. Pending free agents may be looking to cash in this summer with the rising cap in mind, which could make the middle class more expensive. That could subsequently make Mittelstadt’s salary look all the more reasonable.
And then there’s the age factor. There will only be so many centers available at the deadline and over the summer. And most aren’t 26 years old like Mittelstadt. While he isn’t thriving in his prime right now, managers are more likely to bet on a reclamation project of sorts at 26 years old versus 30.
If any team can pull off a creative trade to get out of a bad situation, it’s the Avalanche. After the Alexandar Georgiev and Rantanen trades, no one should discount that front office’s ability to pull off a surprising swing. With Mittelstadt, Colorado should have options because he could be a fit for a contender or an up-and-coming team looking to take the next steps.
Which teams could or should be interested?
Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are often linked to players on the trade board because management looks at every opportunity to improve. And there is room to improve at the 2C position.
While Carolina already added a playmaker in Taylor Hall earlier this season, it wouldn’t hurt to add another pass-first player to give the second line an offensive boost — especially if he can help a shooter like Andrei Svechnikov take his game up another level. Mittelstadt’s rush game could add another element to a team that thrives off the forecheck, and the Canes’ system could help mask some of his defensive deficiencies.
The Canes have the cap space to fit Mittelstadt’s next two seasons, even with a Rantanen extension. But management may need to move some salary out to make it all click this year. Could adding Mittelstadt open the door to flipping Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Jack Roslovic (if not to Colorado)? It’s possible. If neither of those roster players interest the Avalanche, the return could center around future assets that could be used to replace Mittelstadt in a separate trade.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs need to find center reinforcements at the deadline. The ideal target would be a 3C with the ceiling to jump up to a 2C capacity. John Tavares holds that role now, but the coaches could want to shift him to wing down the stretch to alleviate his workload. For any acquisition with term like Mittelstadt, the idea could be to roll him as a 3C this season with 2C potential next year because even if Tavares extends, the team needs a succession plan in case he drops down the lineup or shifts to wing full-time.
The biggest problem? Mittelstadt’s defense. If anything, Toronto should be looking for someone to help absorb some of the defensive workload Tavares has had to take on.
And then there’s the question of return, because the Maple Leafs don’t have a center to send back to Colorado. Maybe Nick Robertson and draft picks would thread the needle for the Avalanche and help position them for future trades.
Leafs forward Nick Robertson could be part of the return in a Mittelstadt trade. (Stephen Brashear / Imagn Images)
Winnipeg Jets
Would the Avalanche want to make a deal with their division rival? Not all Central Division teams are off-limits, but the Jets might be because the teams could face each other in the playoffs again.
Winnipeg may not be interested in Mittelstadt, either. The team may not be in the market for another defensively flawed forward and may prefer someone with more two-way upside.
But the Jets are worth noting as a team in the market for a second-line center for the second consecutive deadline. Winnipeg saw just how effective Mittelstadt could be in the playoffs after he scored six points in its five-game Round 1 series last spring. If the return is right for Colorado — say, Cole Perfetti, who would help the Avalanche get younger and save cap space — it could be worth dealing with a potential playoff foe.
Boston Bruins
The next tier of trade targets comes in below the contender’s circle. The fact Mittelstadt isn’t a rental could drive interest for teams on the fringes of the playoff picture.
The Bruins finally seem realistic about their trajectory, which could kick off a retool on the fly around their franchise cornerstones. One of their biggest focuses has to be improving their center depth.
While the Bruins should be looking to replenish their prospect pool, the team also needs to find younger NHL-caliber players ready to help as soon as possible. At 26 years old, Mittelstadt is the type of reclamation project the Bruins should be targeting.
In return, Pavel Zacha’s two-way game could interest Colorado. He brings an element of versatility as someone who can be trusted in all situations. Brandon Carlo could also be the reinforcement the Avalanche need to solidify their blue line.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Management may want to reward the Blue Jackets for their surprising playoff push with deadline reinforcements. Unlike some veteran teams, Columbus can afford to spend. The team is ripe with cap space and wouldn’t need to wait for the cap to rise to take on Mittelstadt. And even if the team falls short after buying at the deadline, it won’t be a wasted season — it is a year of major progress against the odds.
Mittelstadt could start at 2C behind Adam Fantilli and shift to the third line once Monahan returns. Considering how many injuries the Blue Jackets have dealt with this season, it wouldn’t hurt to have extra center support. Aside from the positional advantages of adding Mittelstadt, the Blue Jackets could use more puck-movers up front.
Like most teams on this list, the Blue Jackets don’t have a clear 2C replacement for the Avalanche. However, they have assets that Colorado could use in future dealings, considering how pricey centers can be at this time of year.
An injury to Sean Monahan left Columbus’ center depth vulnerable, while the Blue Jackets have more assets than most teams on this list. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
St. Louis Blues
Say the Blues make some core changes and move on from Brayden Schenn. That would open up a hole down the middle that Mittelstadt could fill.
St. Louis is in an awkward position. The team isn’t built to contend, and there isn’t a clear rebuilding path forward, either. That is why management has been targeting younger, NHL-caliber talent like Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. Mittelstadt is still in the right age range for the Blues and would be a multi-year commitment but not a long-term anchor on the books, which should help the team build more cap flexibility.
A Mittelstadt trade may only make sense if the Blues move Schenn (who likely isn’t a 2C target for Colorado with his age and contract in mind). It’s a similar situation to the New York Islanders — if Brock Nelson gets dealt (and unlike Schenn, he is a very strong fit for the Avalanche), New York may want a center to fill that void in its top nine in return. The Islanders aren’t on the official destination list because management usually doesn’t move on from core players, especially not while they still have a chance at the postseason.
Nashville Predators
Nashville could use two things: center depth and more puck-movers. Steven Stamkos has played some center this year, but the 35-year-old may become more of a full-time winger in the near future. Even Tommy Novak has spent some time on the wing this year after taking a step back on the ice. So if the Predators think they can get Mittelstadt’s game back on track, he could help Nashville reload for next year.
The return could go a few different directions. Nashville could take on Mittelstadt’s contract for draft picks, giving Colorado more cap flexibility and trade assets. Or maybe the Avalanche could bet on their own reclamation project in Novak, whose transition game has completely fallen flat this season after being such a standout over the last two seasons. Colorado may have to sweeten the deal to make up for the two-plus-million difference in cap between these two centers, though.
One other option? A reunion with Ryan O’Reilly, whose 200-foot game could revitalize Colorado’s second line. There is no urgency to move O’Reilly on Nashville’s part, but general manager Barry Trotz is likely listening to offers that could benefit the team and interest the player.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
