The Blue Jays ponder what might have been — the All-Almost-a-Blue-Jay Team — and what's ahead

DUNEDIN, Fla. — The All-Almost-a-Blue-Jay Team would be one of the monsters of baseball, wouldn’t it?

Would Shohei Ohtani be their Game 1 starter in October — or Corbin Burnes? Then there’s Roki Sasaki, the Game 3 starting pitcher nobody would want to face.

Would Juan Soto hit second, in front of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? Would Pete Alonso hit cleanup — or would that be Shohei’s gig?

Wherever they’d all slot, this would have been one hellacious baseball team. Don’t you think? There’s only one small problem.

The actual 2025 Blue Jays are now two games into spring training — and none of those star-power kings is wearing their uniform.

You probably know what happened, but let’s recap. Ohtani and Sasaki went Hollywood on them and signed with the Dodgers. Burnes stayed home in Arizona, so he’s now a Diamondback. Alonso went back to exotic Flushing, N.Y., where he can hang out with Soto all summer in the Mets’ clubhouse.

And the Blue Jays — despite offering mega-millions to all of them (aside from Sasaki) — would turn into that team that finished second in free agency on seemingly everybody. It’s not a fun niche, but it’s now their niche.

So here’s a question that hangs over them this spring: Is there ever a time where the current Blue Jays let their minds travel to that alternative What If universe where their world includes some or all of those Almost Blue Jays?

“Not at all,” said the manager of those current Blue Jays, John Schneider … before even he then let his mind wander beyond the team he was watching take batting practice.

“Yeah, I think you wonder sometimes: ‘OK, what would that have looked like?’” he continued. “Like, ‘What if we had player X? What would that mean for everyone else that is here? Would we be able to acquire who we have?’

“I think you think about that when you’re away from the ballpark,” the manager acknowledged. “But when you’re here? No. It’s the guys here — 26 of you — and let’s figure out a way to win.”

Well, here’s a bulletin for you: Contrary to the running narrative, the Blue Jays’ path to winning isn’t a dead-end street. In fact, it’s safe to say the team Schneider is actually managing feels like one whose lack of buzz doesn’t match the talent on the roster.

Has anyone noticed that Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system gives the 2025 Blue Jays a 48 percent chance to make the playoffs — and projects them to score more runs than the Yankees, allow fewer runs than the Phillies and win more games (84.6) than the Red Sox? The men in this camp can’t help but ask that question.

Has anyone noticed all the upgrades this team has made? They ask that one, too.

They’d like us all to put aside the running commentary on that array of stars they haven’t signed — and just focus on the guys they did bring in, over an offseason that inspired the 32 insiders who took part in our annual spring training preview survey to rank the Blue Jays as the fifth-most improved team in the American League.

“(People) can say, ‘What if,’ but I think we’ve landed in a good place,” Schneider said. “If you’d told me last September that (over the offseason) we would have acquired Yimi García, Nick Sandlin, Andrés Giménez, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander and Max Scherzer, I’d be pretty OK with that. I’d be more than OK with that.”

Then there’s that Vladdy guy. On one hand, he also turned down their money this spring — saying no to what Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins described as a “record-setting” contract.

We don’t know exactly what that offer looked like. But the Jays have dropped enough breadcrumbs to make it clear it would have gone down as one of the three or four biggest deals in the history of the sport. Now Guerrero is barreling full-bore toward free agency after this season. And that’s also a heavy, often uncomfortable topic in this camp, for good reason.

But if you’re picking your 2025 All-Motivated Team, where would Guerrero rank? Is he the captain, the poster boy or practically a category unto himself?

“Oh, he might be No. 1,” Schneider said. “But … we have a lot of guys on that team.”

“They had their numbers, I had my numbers.”

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. confirms he and the Blue Jays did not reach an agreement on a contract extension before his Monday-night deadline. pic.twitter.com/97Ci90EOSV

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) February 18, 2025

A tale of five negotiations

You’ll never hear a packed stadium chant: “We’re No. 2.”

You never want to be that team people describe as “the Buffalo Bills of (pick your favorite category).”

Nobody sets out to be that team that almost wins … or almost signs the biggest stars in the galaxy. As you may have noticed, there’s not much difference between a consolation prize and no prize at all.

As Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro said last week after his team came up short on extending Guerrero: “There’s no such thing as close or not close. There’s done or not done.”

On the other hand …

It could be worse than to be Meryl Streep. How many Oscars didn’t she win in her four decades or so as arguably America’s greatest actress? That answer is 18, to be exact — versus the three Oscars she did take home.

So while we won’t be casting Shapiro and Atkins in “The Bridges of Ontario Province” … and they won’t be collecting any accolades for not quite signing Ohtani … they continue to make the argument that all of our beer mugs are half-empty if we don’t at least recognize that they’ve continually gone down to the wire in their pursuit of the best free agents in baseball.

“I think that there were 26, 27, 28 teams … that weren’t factoring in for those players you’re talking about, and we still were,” Shapiro told reporters last week after the Guerrero negotiations shut down. “We’ve been in a good spot on a lot of high-profile players, and we’ll keep pounding. And one of these days, we’re going to get one of those guys.”

So how close did they actually get on those players? We’ve asked that question to agents and rival executives who were involved in some of those negotiations — and based on those conversations, here is how we would characterize the Jays’ place in those talks.

OHTANI — Ohtani never did board that fabled plane to Toronto on one of the craziest Hot Stove days ever, back in December 2023. But execs whose teams were involved in those negotiations believe that if, for some reason, Ohtani hadn’t wanted to be a Dodger, he would have been a Blue Jay.

Only Ohtani knows for sure. But it is well documented that three teams agreed to offer exactly the same heavily deferred 10-year, $700 million deal that Ohtani eventually signed — and the Jays were one of them. The other two were the Dodgers and Giants. So when the Jays claim that they weren’t outbid, they have the facts on their side.

BURNES — This is another instance where the Blue Jays pushed for a player, firing a bigger offer at Burnes than the six-year, $210 million package he agreed to with the Diamondbacks. The Giants and Orioles were also involved.

But while the Jays could match or beat the money, they couldn’t figure out a way to match or beat Burnes’ commute to the ballpark from his home in Scottsdale, Ariz. If you have any ideas on how to invent geographical teleportation, they’d probably take your call.

SOTO — Was Soto ever going to leave New York? He had the Mets and Yankees involved — plus the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers cruising along on a highway that did not cross the RFK Triborough Bridge.

It was a fun little derby while it lasted. Then Mets owner Steve Cohen upped the bidding to a place no one else was prepared to go — with the 15-year, $765 million deal that out-dollared not only the Jays, but also every other offer for every other player in history.

So were the Blue Jays “used” in those Soto negotiations? That’s an easy argument to make. And we’ve heard rival front offices make it. But when a player has the Mets and Yankees on his trail from the day he files for free agency, does he really need any other team to stoke his market?

ALONSO — There’s nothing shocking about Alonso deciding to go back to the only team he’d ever played for. But it’s clear there was more money out there for him in Toronto than the $54 million the Mets guaranteed him over two years.

Was Alonso ever “close” to becoming a Blue Jay? By Shapiro’s definition of “there’s no such thing as close,” then let’s go with no. But was there a clear path for him to become a Blue Jay, if the Jays had made an offer that significantly separated them from the Mets? Let’s go with yes on that.

Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro, general manager Ross Atkins and manager John Schneider (not pictured) have come under fire from the fan base. (Nick Turchiaro / Imagn Images)

SASAKI — If you followed the Sasaki negotiations at all, you know it was never going to be about money. He was a different kind of free agent, one whose signing bonus was capped by international bonus pools. So this is yet one more instance where the Jays were not outbid.

Then what should we make of the fact that they were one of the three finalists — along with the Dodgers and Padres? Let’s ask again: How half-full or half-empty is your beer mug?

Maybe Sasaki was always going to be a Dodger. Maybe he was never going to sign to play in a city so far from Japan. But two league sources briefed on the negotiations say he was serious enough about Toronto that he spent more days there, checking out their city and ballpark, than he spent visiting the Dodgers and Padres combined.

So was this a “rejection”? Or was it an example of a player who found himself intrigued by a place that almost no one expected to entice him? If the Blue Jays want to argue that people are misreading their place in the Sasaki sweepstakes, they have an interesting case.

But add all of that up and what have you got? A whole lot of fish that wriggled away. And despite all of those bids and offered dollars, what goodwill has it built them? What bonus points for effort have they cashed in? Good luck finding any, in a sea of fan base frustration.

“What I see,” said one rival AL executive, “is that their fans are kind of fed up with constantly reading about how ‘the Blue Jays were also involved with this player, who didn’t sign with them.’ They want something to happen. And they’re in a division where it’s tough to make things happen.”

So is it time to ask:

Is this becoming a thing?

When the biggest stars in the sport keep saying no, it’s easy to jump to conclusions. And fans we hear from seem to find that nobody wants to play there narrative an easy conclusion to jump to. But is that really true? The people who run this team vociferously dispute that narrative

“Look at the past five years,” Schneider said. “I know the last two years, that narrative has kind of crept in. But look at the past five years. We’ve still signed Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt and Jeff Hoffman and Anthony Santander. We’ve signed a lot of guys. And hopefully, when the time is right, we’ll continue to do that.”

So here’s an idea. Let’s ask some of those guys why they signed — and what they see now.

KEVIN GAUSMAN (signed for five years, $110 million before the 2022 season): He is three seasons into his five-year deal – and collected Cy Young Award votes in two of them. So Gausman has been one of the Blue Jays’ best free-agent additions ever — and a guy with no reservations about the decision he made. That makes him the perfect Blue Jay to answer this pivotal question:

“If you’re always finishing second on every big free agent, does that become a thing?”

“You know, the way I like to think about it,” Gausman replied, “is that I’d rather be in an organization that’s trying to get those guys than an organization that’s not even trying. And that kind of goes back to, you hear a lot of fans complain about, ‘These owners aren’t spending money. This front office isn’t doing this or that.’

“But in reality, there are a lot of teams that aren’t even trying. So you’ve got to just be happy that you’re on a team that’s in on those guys and the willingness is there on our side. But you can’t force a guy to sign somewhere.”

Gausman understands the forces that pulled Ohtani, Sasaki, Alonso and others elsewhere. But what about Guerrero, we asked. If this team couldn’t get a homegrown player like Vlad signed, was that a red flag to players — or anyone else?

“I don’t know,” Gausman answered. “That’s a tough question. I think that might go back to, if a guy just doesn’t want to be somewhere, then he’s not going to choose to be there. But if he wants to be somewhere, then usually, a deal gets done, as we’ve seen. I think that’s kind of what happened with Alonso.”

So does it feel like Toronto is where Guerrero wants to be? Or with a player in his shoes, is it just business?

“The only person who really knows that is Vlad,” Gausman said. “But I think he likes playing in Toronto. … And I think the fans obviously would love to have him here. But who knows what’s going to happen? I think that if we’re able to win this year, everything will line itself up.”

“I look at this as a winning team,” said Anthony Santander, who also praised the Blue Jays’ staff and facilities. (Julio Aguilar / Getty Images)

ANTHONY SANTANDER (signed for five years, $92.5 million in January): It’s all a little new for Santander, who last season hit more home runs (44) than any player on this free-agent market.

Only three free-agent hitters — Juan Soto, Willy Adames and Alex Bregman — signed for more total dollars this winter than Santander. Somehow, there has been more attention paid to all the players the Jays didn’t sign than the biggest free agent they did sign. Funny how that works.

But when Santander looks at those players who said no to Toronto, he thinks they’re the ones missing out, not him.

“I look at this as a winning team,” he said. “They’ve won a lot of games. And the other thing is, they have a really good staff and they have great facilities. Here in spring training, you’re living in paradise. You walk around the facility? This is the definition of the big leagues. It’s great.”

Santander is excited to play alongside Guerrero, loves the allure of the AL East, and sees nothing but reasons to be stoked about the contract he signed and the team he joined. So he couldn’t imagine, he said, why other players didn’t see this team that way.

“Do you think that there are guys who don’t want to play in Canada?” we asked.

“I have no idea,” Santander said. “I love Toronto. I always loved when I would go to play against the Blue Jays when I was on the Orioles. So I can’t speak for all the (other) players. I have no idea what they think.”

JEFF HOFFMAN (signed for three years, $33 million in January): He is only two weeks into his second go-round with the Blue Jays, after signing the second-largest contract of any free-agent reliever this winter. But Hoffman is already volunteering to be the Jays’ No. 1 recruiter of future free agents.

“I’ll tell you what,” he said. “They aren’t going to be finishing second on free agents much longer, because word is going to get out. I’ve already been texting guys and saying: ‘You guys have no idea what it’s like here. This place is great.’”

Hoffman knows there are many reasons free agents don’t sign with teams that pursue them. The fit has to be right in every way, he said. And playing in Canada doesn’t work for everyone. But whatever it was that stopped those other guys from picking the Blue Jays, it isn’t what he sees.

“I was intrigued by the team that’s been put together,” Hoffman said. “I was intrigued by the fact that they underperformed last year, because I know there’s a hunger coming in. I know they missed the playoffs last year, but it’s not like they’ve missed the playoffs the last five years in a row. What I see is a team that’s hungry and ready to win.

“So I don’t think this is going to be the story that’s written about the Blue Jays,” he said. “By the time it’s all said and done, I don’t think that’s going to be what they’re known for, is finishing second. I think the story is going to be, they had some trouble getting guys through the door at first, but once they land that first top-of-the-market guy, players will start to see that. And obviously, word travels fast through our game.”

But you know what else is obvious? If Guerrero walks out that door this fall and doesn’t return, that word will also travel fast. So welcome to possibly the most pressure-packed season in Blue Jays history.

It might be the grand finale for the face of their franchise — and for his longtime tag-team partner, Bo Bichette, who is also an impending free agent. It might be played, from start to finish, beneath the cloud of how formidable that All-Almost-a-Blue-Jay Team could have been.

It will be a litmus-test season for those in charge — for Shapiro, for Atkins and certainly for the manager. And they all will feel the boulder on their shoulders that comes with a fed-up fanbase.

So if this were a Netflix series, we’d watch. But since it’s “only” real life, there’s just one option. They’d better win.

“Absolutely,” Hoffman said. “We have to win. It’s all that matters. If you don’t win, nobody gets excited about any of it.”

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(Top image: John Schneider: John McDonnell / Associated Press; Juan Soto: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)