Leicester's problems can be traced to a transfer strategy with more misses than hits

“With the squad we have, it’s a huge mountain to climb to stay in this league,” said Leicester City manager Ruud van Nistelrooy after his side suffered their sixth consecutive home defeat without scoring last week, a 4-0 reverse against Brentford.

That is the longest run of home losses without a goal in a single season by any side in English top-flight history. After 10 defeats in 11 games, and with the club stuck in the relegation zone, this squad is struggling to reach the levels required in the Premier League.

As a result, there is growing criticism by fans of the club’s recruitment over the past four years — and decisions made on player contract renewals — which has been particularly aimed at director of football Jon Rudkin. That criticism has been increasingly noticeable at matches and culminated in an organised protest before the home match against Arsenal.

At Leicester, the recruitment process is collective. The manager identifies areas that need strengthening and head of recruitment Martyn Glover and his team scout options which are placed in order of priority. It is Rudkin’s role to do the deals, with the manager having the final say.

Buying and selling is key for any club aspiring to challenge the elite of the Premier League and, for a while, Leicester did it very well. But there is little margin for error, and profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) have proved a challenge for ambitious clubs.

Leicester used to operate in the fringe markets better than most. It was the secret behind their astonishing title success of 2015-16, which was led by Jamie Vardy, a £1million signing from Fleetwood Town, and Riyad Mahrez, a £450,000 signing from Le Havre. Harry Maguire and James Maddison were other shrewd investments.

The problem is, if a club gets one window wrong, with no safety net of extra funds to throw at a solution, it can take several more windows to correct the situation. Since winning the FA Cup in 2021, Leicester have got it terribly wrong at times.

The days of recruiting players like Mahrez seem long ago (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Leicester embarked on one of the biggest summer spending sprees in the club’s history in 2021 without selling a main asset, and several players were awarded new, bigger contracts, pushing the club to its PSR limits.

Leicester are currently in arbitration with the Premier League over an alleged breach of PSR for the 2022-23 season, having won a ruling on appeal that they were neither a Premier League club nor Championship club at the point of the alleged breach.

Football finance expert Kieran Maguire has calculated that by 2023, Leicester’s wage-to-revenue ratio had risen to 116 per cent. “Part of the reason was, to avoid a points deduction, they extended their financial year to June 30,” Maguire tells The Athletic. “So the figure is slightly more alarming than it should be, but they had to do that or they would have been in breach of the PSR rules.

“They budgeted to finish eighth or ninth, and actually finished 18th, and every additional place in the table is worth £3m in prize money so they were £30m worse off.

“It looks like they haven’t been great at negotiating contracts. Many players have a relatively low basic salary but they are heavily incentivised, but it is difficult to see how Leicester’s pricing structure in terms of wages operated.

“That probably went against the club because when things didn’t work out, they were on the hook because, in fact, their wage bill was £24m higher in 2023 than it had been in 2022. That suggests maybe the club hadn’t thought things through and after their successful years, players were being offered contracts on the assumption that relegation wasn’t really possible.”

But it was possible of course, and the club went down at the end of the 2022-23 season. Here, we look at some of the most telling transfers and contract renewals during the past four seasons.

GO DEEPER

The Premier League is the promised land. But is promotion into it increasingly futile?

Odsonne Edouard, summer 2024

The last-minute move to bring in French striker Edouard from Crystal Palace has been a disaster.

On deadline day in August 2024, Steve Cooper decided, having allowed striker Tom Cannon to go out on loan to Stoke City, he needed a third striker to compete with Vardy and Patson Daka. The 27-year-old has featured for just 26 minutes in the Premier League across four brief substitute appearances. He has featured in just one squad under Van Nistelrooy, but without playing a single minute.

Leicester paid Palace a loan fee and a significant portion of his wages, but could not cancel the agreement without significant financial penalties. It also used one of their Premier League loan slots when Van Nistelrooy was in need of reinforcements this January — only two Premier League loans are allowed and Leicester had also brought in Facundo Buonanotte from Brighton & Hove Albion.

Edouard isn’t the first loan to struggle to make the anticipated impact. When Tete joined from Shakhtar Donetsk in January 2023 he looked an incredible signing on his debut against Aston Villa, but then disappeared almost completely.

Odsonne Edouard in September last year (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Harry Souttar, January 2023

Like Tete, Souttar arrived in the 2023 January window when Brendan Rodgers was finally given some funds to spend to bolster his squad as it slipped towards relegation.

Leicester paid Stoke £15m for the Australian’s services but after making 12 appearances as Leicester lost their fight for survival, he was deemed surplus to requirements under Enzo Maresca and then Cooper. Souttar returned to Leicester from his loan at Sheffield United after rupturing his Achilles on Boxing Day.

Ryan Bertrand, summer 2021

When Premier League title-winner Christian Fuchs left the club Rodgers wanted to bring in a similar left-sided defender who could play as a full-back or third centre-back, and provide experience to help the younger players.

Free agent Bertrand, a Champions League winner with 19 England caps, was on a good wage, but made just 11 appearances across two seasons and just four in the Premier League, largely due to injury.

Mads Hermansen, summer 2023

Former manager Maresca described the arrival of Hermansen from Brondby for just £6.5m as the most important signing of the 2023 summer window.

The 24-year-old demonstrated his ability with the ball at his feet as Leicester won the Championship using Maresca’s possession-based style, but since then he has also had to show how good a shot-stopper he is.

Despite the number of goals Leicester have conceded, the tally would have been higher but for his performances. Should Leicester go straight back down, he will be the biggest asset they possess to sell in order to reinvest.

Chelsea held an interest in him last summer but didn’t follow it up. After Maresca’s struggles with goalkeepers this season, they may be prompted to move for Hermansen this summer.

Hermansen was a positive arrival for Leicester (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Abdul Fatawu, summer 2023

Maresca credited head of recruitment Glover with making him aware of the attacking talents of the young Ghana winger.

Despite arriving as a raw teenager on loan from Sporting CP, Fatawu was a huge hit in the Championship. He even negotiated his release from international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations to stay at Leicester and play the required number of games to trigger a permanent move clause and promptly signed in a £14m deal.

But after injuring his ACL on international duty this season, Fatawu was ruled out for the rest of the campaign and his absence has been a big blow.

Bilal El Khannouss, summer 2024

After selling Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea, Leicester wanted to bring in at least one attacking midfielder who could play as a high No 8 or a No 10. They ended up bringing in two, including Facundo Buonanotte on loan from Brighton. They decided to invest a big chunk of their budget to the other, Morocco international El Khannouss, who joined for £19m.

It has been a bleak season, but El Khannouss has been one of the few positives. If they go down he could be another of the few assets they could sell for a decent fee.

Jannik Vestergaard, summer 2021

If ever there was a signing that demonstrates the muddled transfer thinking and lack of a clear philosophy and identity at Leicester, it is Vestergaard.

Wanted and then unwanted by Rodgers, left out by Dean Smith, loved by Maresca — earning a new contract — and then in and then out under both Cooper and Van Nistelrooy. The Dane has had an up-and-down time at Leicester.

His attributes as a player are obvious and have suited some managers and not others but, with five managers in three years, it is hardly his fault.

Wout Faes, summer 2022

It can be hard to figure out what to make of Faes, who was brought in after the sale of Wesley Fofana to Chelsea. He can look like the international defender he is, but the Belgian’s lapses in concentration and tendency to get dragged out of position blight his displays.

He looked head and shoulders above the typical defender in the Championship, but his only experiences of the Premier League have been relegation battles and he has struggled to convince at the higher level across both seasons.

Victor Kristiansen, January 2023

Similar to Faes, Kristiansen only knows a relegation dogfight in the Premier League after joining midway through the disastrous 2022-23 season.

The Denmark international was surplus to requirements under Maresca in the Championship and headed to Italy on loan, but has struggled to show he can compete at Premier League level, or that he is making the required improvements.

Kristiansen played in the 4-0 home defeat by Brentford (Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Oliver Skipp, summer 2024

Last summer’s transfer business has been mostly ineffective with several of the players signed by Cooper now struggling to get a game. Chief among them is Skipp, a £22m signing from Tottenham Hotspur.

Another midfielder did not seem to be a priority with Harry Winks, Wilfred Ndidi, Boubakary Soumare and Hamza Choudhury already at the club.

Where do they go from here?

Regardless of which division Leicester find themselves in next season — it increasingly looks like it will be the Championship, with Leicester five points behind Wolverhampton Wanderers in 17th place — a reset of the squad will have to take place.

There are likely to be a number of departures and a fresh start for others in the club. The process may be hampered if they are hit with PSR sanctions by either the EFL or Premier League, and they may have a business plan imposed on them if they are in the Championship.

Whatever happens, better recruitment and a clearer transfer policy will be at the heart of their efforts to return to former glories. They can’t afford to get it wrong again.

GO DEEPER

Jon Rudkin: The powerful Leicester City figure who shuns the spotlight

(Top photo: Leicester after conceding a third against Brentford at home; by Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)