Analyzing every WNBA free agency signing: Satour Sabally, Brittney Griner, Kelsey Plum on the move

The busiest time of the WNBA offseason is upon us as free agents meet with their prospective teams leading up to Feb. 1, when they can sign contracts.

The prospects of a new collective bargaining agreement will influence this season’s free agency, but expect to see stars change uniforms and championship contenders rearrange their rosters. Follow this tracker, where you’ll find news and analysis of moves that could reshape the league.

Grading the moves

The last significant domino of the 2025 WNBA offseason has fallen.

The Phoenix Mercury are acquiring two-time WNBA All-Star Satou Sabally from the Dallas Wings in a three-team deal that also involves the Indiana Fever, according to ESPN.

Phoenix gives: 2025 No. 19, Ty Harris, Sophie Cunningham, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan
Phoenix gets: Satou Sabally, Kalani Brown, Sevgi Uzun

Indiana gives: 2025 No. 8, NaLyssa Smith
Indiana gets: Cunningham, No. 19

Dallas gives: Brown, Sabally, Uzun
Dallas gets: Harris, Smith, Herbert Harrigan, No. 8

A new Big 3 in Phoenix?! 💥 pic.twitter.com/9abaFBqvV0

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) February 1, 2025

Phoenix: A+

One of the concerns I had about the Mercury after the Alyssa Thomas sign-and-trade was that they had exhausted all of their potential assets for another deal. Even as league sources continued to indicate that Phoenix was making a push for Sabally, the math didn’t quite add up.

Those concerns did not come to pass. Instead, the Mercury had enough to get a deal done, turning their last 2024 rotation player plus Ty Harris – whose addition to the Thomas deal was a stroke of genius – into Sabally, who was a top-five player during her last fully healthy season in 2023. Phoenix didn’t even have to give up swap rights on its 2027 first-round pick (a.k.a. the JuJu Watkins draft), as its 2025 second-round selection (No. 19) was enough to get the deal done.

Mikiah Herbert Harrigan has some athletic promise, but she didn’t exactly pan out with the Mercury. The worst part of this deal is that Phoenix had to take on some bad salary in the form of Kalani Brown. That might hurt in 2025 as the Mercury fill out the rest of the roster, but once the cap goes up in 2026, her number will likely be the equivalent of a minimum deal.

Indiana: B+

The Fever swapped out Smith for a better fitting player in Cunningham at the cost of moving down 11 spots in the draft. With the acquisition of Natasha Howard in free agency, Smith’s skill set became redundant, while Cunningham can play the three or the four. It’s worth wondering if the front office could have avoided surrendering a first-round pick, but Indiana should be better in the short term with Cunningham, who has been a veritable 3-and-D forward over her last four seasons in Phoenix. The Fever are also overloaded with young talent, so they can afford to surrender some draft capital.

Dallas: D

To surrender an all-WNBA talent and get one rotation player in Harris — the jury is still out on Smith — plus a late first-rounder doesn’t seem like enough value for Sabally. At least the Wings cleared out Kalani Brown’s money, but they didn’t get any players on rookie contracts or high-upside draft assets. Phoenix legally couldn’t trade its 2027 first-rounder, but to not even get a swap in that draft feels like a miss for Dallas.

For readers who saw Connecticut’s A grade in the Alyssa Thomas trade (see below) and are wondering about the difference: Consider this a mea culpa. Cloud and Allen are better overall than Harris and Smith, but not by as significant of a margin, though Cloud has positional value because of the dearth of quality point guards league-wide. The Sun can likely flip Cloud into another first-round pick, and potentially even Allen, while Harris wouldn’t command a similar return. Even so, both teams should have negotiated harder with the Mercury. In hindsight, Connecticut’s return should have been in the C range, and Dallas’ is lower because of the lesser talent.

Atlanta Dream: B+

The Atlanta Dream made their second splashy free-agent signing in as many days, agreeing to terms with center Bri Jones. Jones now joins former Phoenix center Brittney Griner in a revamped Dream frontcourt under new head coach Karl Smesko.

The pairing of Jones and Griner seems duplicative, given both are post-up centers who will dabble in midrangers but don’t shoot 3s. They are both also paint-bound defenders. It’s an even more curious duo since Smesko’s offenses at Florida Gulf Coast never had a back-to-the-basket presence, let alone two.
However, from a pure talent perspective, signing Jones is a no-brainer. She is a three-time All-Star and a FIBA World Cup champion. Jones was sixth league-wide in win shares in 2024 after finishing third in the W in both 2021 and 2022 (she missed most of the 2023 season with a torn achilles). Jones is also comfortable playing next to another big full-time, whether that was Alyssa Thomas or Jonquel Jones in Connecticut, so she should comfortably adapt to sharing the court with Griner. Although she doesn’t space the floor traditionally, she is a good cutter, allowing her to play off the ball. It’s worth noting that neither Jones nor Griner is an above-average defensive rebounder, however, which could be a deficiency of their pairing.
Jones has been a sixth woman as recently as 2022 — and earned an All-Star nod that season — so it’s possible she will come off the bench, allowing Atlanta to stagger her and Griner alongside fourth-year forward Naz Hillmon. However, it’s more likely that her pedigree will put her into the starting lineup, creating a jumbo look with the 6-foot-9 Griner, 6-2 Rhyne Howard, and 6-foot Allisha Gray.
Perhaps most importantly, bringing in Jones is another indicator that the Dream are becoming a desired free-agent destination. Atlanta’s offseason acquisitions a year ago (Jordin Canada and Aerial Powers) were more of the role player variety, but Griner and Jones are both multi-time All-Stars who had other options. Even if the fit is questionable, the Dream are collecting an enviable amount of talent.

Indiana Fever: A

Amid a flurry of trades across the WNBA, the Indiana Fever re-signed All-Star guard Kelsey Mitchell to a one-year supermax contract worth around $249,000.

Sometimes an evaluation doesn’t need to be overcomplicated. Fever executives entered this offseason with the top priority of re-signing two-time All-Star Kelsey Mitchell. Mission accomplished.

On Wednesday, the franchise announced Mitchell will return for her eighth season with the Fever.

Like Alyssa Thomas and Kelsey Plum, Mitchell had been given the core designation earlier this January. But a trade always seemed unlikely as Indiana president of basketball Kelly Krauskopf drafted Mitchell No. 2 in the 2018 WNBA Draft and has remained steadfast in her support of the 5-foot-8 guard. When Krauskopf returned to the Fever this fall, she stressed that Mitchell was part of the Fever’s Big 3, calling her “extremely important to the success of this, our future.”

Mitchell is coming off her best pro season, recording career-highs in points (19.2) and field goal percentage (40.2 percent). More than just her statistics, however, her pairing with star guard Caitlin Clark was integral to Indiana’s playoff return. Clark and Mitchell played the most minutes of any two-player combination across the WNBA, with Indiana’s offense scoring 105.1 points per 100 possessions with them together.

Indiana will now be tasked with buffing out the rest of their roster. With their backcourt solidified, adding front-court depth will be even more important, especially after losing center Temi Fagbenle in the December expansion draft.

Atlanta Dream: B

After a career in Phoenix, Brittney Griner has found a new destination.

The Dream needed frontcourt improvements, and Griner was the most efficient scorer (1.12 points per play) among last season’s WNBA players averaging at least 15 points per game. Atlanta is already long at the wing positions, and adding Griner’s size provides some intimidating defensive length.

The stylistic fit doesn’t make a ton of sense, as Griner’s pace is more methodical than what the Dream should be aiming for. Nearly half of her offensive possessions were post-ups last season, and it would behoove Atlanta to have her run more pick-and-roll and play in transition. Griner is also too midrange-happy for a Karl Smesko offense.
But the Dream needed more talent and they have plenty of cap space. Any future offseason plans will only be aided by acquiring Griner, who is beloved around the league.

The upside may not be terribly high here, but there is virtually no downside.

The Phoenix Mercury are finalizing a trade to acquire five-time All-Star and two-time All-WNBA first-team forward Alyssa Thomas from the Connecticut Sun.

The Mercury will receive Ty Harris in addition to Thomas, and Connecticut will receive Natasha Cloud, Rebecca Allen and the 12th overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft. The Sun gave Thomas the core designation earlier in January, meaning the only way Thomas can be moved is via a sign-and-trade, which cannot be made official until the official start of free agency.

Connecticut Sun: A

The Sun lost the best player in this trade, but they have remained competitive by getting Cloud and Allen in return. Cloud is arguably the best active WNBA player never to have been named an All-Star, and in a league where point guard play is at a premium, Cloud is a top-five player at her position. Allen is a plug-and-play starter thanks to her shooting and defensive versatility, and her 2023 season in Connecticut was perhaps the best of her career. Slot Cloud and Allen with Marina Mabrey, DiJonai Carrington and Brionna Jones — though the latter two are free agents — and that’s a lineup that will easily make the playoffs.

If Carrington and/or Jones also decide to play elsewhere, the Sun can easily pivot into a rebuild. They got back into the first round of the 2025 draft with the No. 12 pick and could flip Cloud and Allen into further assets. Cloud would be attractive to both of last year’s WNBA finalists — she always elevates her game in the postseason — as would Allen. Plenty of other teams could use a veteran point guard and wing defender. Carrington would also fetch a return as a restricted free agent.

Connecticut had to move Thomas, and the Sun did so without committing to a direction for the 2025 season. They can still be nimble depending on how the rest of free agency shakes out.

Phoenix Mercury: B-

Kudos to the Mercury for securing a commitment from the best player who will change teams this offseason. Thomas will essentially assume the point guard position (or forward or center, depending on your preference) in Phoenix, and Harris is an excellent shooter who made 42 percent of her 3s over the last two seasons in Connecticut. The Sun duo makes tons of sense next to Kahleah Copper and Sophie Cunningham.

But how in the world does Phoenix plan to fill out the rest of its roster?

The WNBA mandates that a team have at least one first-round pick within the next three drafts, so the Mercury could have traded their 2025 or 2027 picks in the Thomas deal. They likely held on to the 2027 pick because of the high potential of that draft class, when JuJu Watkins, Hannah Hidalgo and Madison Booker are all expected to turn pro. However, that means Phoenix missed out on an opportunity for a young, cheap contributor this year. Once the trade goes through, the Mercury will have five players under contract and have to rely on free agency for the final six roster spots.

Thomas’ fiancée DeWanna Bonner becomes an option, as the six-time All-Star won two titles in Phoenix. The Mercury can try to get some guard depth from the likes of Tiffany Hayes, Natisha Hiedeman and other veterans. Regardless, it seems as though Phoenix will still be top-heavy, and that lack of depth has caused it to fizzle in recent seasons.

In a massive three-team deal, the Seattle Storm are trading Jewell Loyd to the Las Vegas Aces in an agreement that will send star guard Kelsey Plum to the Los Angeles Sparks. The Storm will also receive the Sparks’ No. 2 draft pick in the 2025 draft as well as former Los Angeles center Li Yueru. The Sparks will receive Seattle’s No. 9 draft pick and the Aces will get the Sparks’ No. 13 pick,

Seattle Storm: A

The Storm turned a player who didn’t want to be in Seattle into the No. 2 pick. Considering how badly Loyd had performed over the last two seasons as her jump shot completely betrayed her, to start over with the second pick is a tremendous outcome for this front office. The Storm did have to send the No. 9 pick to Los Angeles, but they got Li Yueru, a promising young center, in return, which is basically the median outcome of a pick in that range of the draft.

Los Angeles Sparks: B-

The Sparks are taking a huge risk on Plum making a long-term commitment to their franchise, as they could have continued to build for the future with a young guard (likely Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles at No. 2 in the 2025 draft) to complement their young frontcourt. However, it’s hard to stomach any more losing than L.A. has over the past four seasons, and with a new head coach and no 2026 first-round pick, it’s understandable the Sparks want to start a new chapter. Plum is arguably the best player or asset in this deal and could realistically get the organization back into the playoffs. However, she is turning 31 this season and likely will be on a one-year deal. The potential downside of this trade is enormous. Nevertheless, it’s a move L.A. arguably had to make, and filling its biggest free-agency need is a win.

Las Vegas: C

The Aces ended this trade with a worse player than they started. Kelsey Plum is a better shooter and playmaker than Loyd, while neither exactly impressed on defense in 2024. Las Vegas also broke up a quartet that won back-to-back titles, even if the Aces didn’t have a choice in the matter if Plum asked out. Loyd’s shooting decline has been precipitous since Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart left the Storm. There is a chance that she returns to her Seattle peak, but for Las Vegas to win a title in 2025, the version of Loyd from the last two years isn’t good enough, and the Aces are worse now than with Plum.

The draft pick exchange also doesn’t work out in favor of Las Vegas, as the Aces turned their 2026 first-rounder into the No. 13 pick in 2025. The draft selection will be in the same spot only if Vegas has the best record in 2025, but 2026 is projected to be a deeper draft. The Aces need the cost-controlled rookie this season with Loyd’s max salary. However, getting out of the 2026 draft could be costly.

How will CBA negotiations affect free agency?

Though some of this year’s free agents might sign multiyear deals this offseason, considering the economic windfall expected to hit the league next winter, many top free agents are expected to sign one-year deals and re-enter the market next season when salaries likely increase.

In late October, the Women’s National Basketball Players Association opted out of the WNBA’s collective bargaining agreement, setting up negotiations for a new contract that will significantly affect the league’s future.

Talks between the two sides come amid a period of economic growth in women’s basketball. As evidenced by the ratings, attendance and merchandise boom this past summer, the WNBA announced a new media rights agreement in 2026 that will pay an average of $200 million over the next 11 years. Its current deal is valued at roughly $50 million annually. The increase in media rights is expected to lead to a jump in player salaries and league salary cap when the new CBA goes into effect.

Only two players — Kalani Brown and Lexie Brown — are not on rookie contracts but signed to a 2026 contract. More than 60 players who ended the 2024 season on a roster are expected to be free agents next year.

An offseason of record change seems increasingly possible as players who appear content on their current teams, including Breanna Stewart, have signed one-year contracts in recent years presumably to wait to ink a long-term contract at higher value in the 2026 offseason.

It’s official ✅

Check out the full list of 2025 Unrestricted Free Agents, Core Players, Restricted Free Agents, & Reserved Players #WNBAFreeAgency ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/KGp33D4ESf

— WNBA (@WNBA) January 22, 2025

Players to watch

Satou Sabally

In early January, Sabally said she had informed the Dallas Wings about her desire to play for another franchise next season. Nevertheless, Dallas cored Sabally, meaning that any move involving the one-time All-WNBA first-team forward must be via a sign-and-trade.

DiJonai Carrington

Carrington is a restricted free agent, meaning Connecticut can match any offer sheet she signs with another team. However, all RFA offer sheets must be for at least two years, and Carrington is unlikely to sign a multiyear deal (because of CBA changes). As a result, Carrington’s situation is akin to that of a cored player: She likely will either return to the Sun on a one-year contract or get flipped to another team in a sign-and-trade.

Top 20 impact players at the start of free agency

*Player is cored

**Player is restricted

Key free-agency dates

WNBA franchises had from Jan. 11 to Jan. 20 to extend qualifying offers to make applicable players restricted or reserved free agents. In that window, players could accept qualifying offers, but these deals could be accepted only before Feb. 1.

Beginning Jan. 21, franchises could begin negotiating with free agents, no matter their classification. Contracts cannot be officially finalized and announced until Feb. 1.

What does it mean to be a cored player?

A core designation in the WNBA is similar to the NFL’s franchise tag. It can be applied to one unrestricted free agent per team to prevent a player from becoming an unrestricted free agent. Applying the core designation to a player gives the team exclusive negotiation rights, and any agreement between the player and team must be at minimum a fully guaranteed one-year deal worth the supermax.

A player can be cored for a maximum of two times in her career.

Cored players might not necessarily suit up for the franchise that applied the designation, but cored players can only then be moved in sign-and-trade agreements. This might become the case with Plum, Thomas and Sabally.

WNBA cored players this offseason

• Breanna Stewart (Liberty)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever)

• Satou Sabally (Wings)

• Kelsey Plum (Aces)

• Alyssa Thomas (Sun)

• Gabby Williams (Storm)

How will teams value draft picks?

Keep an eye on how many — and which — draft picks get put into offseason trades. With the ongoing CBA negotiation, franchises might be hesitant to deal their first-round picks because the salary slotting of a first-round pick will almost assuredly be lower this year (around $76,000) than in the next CBA. Assuming next year’s CBA increases rookie minimums, players drafted this year would be locked into lower salaries than next year’s rookies.

Franchises can also trade picks in the 2027 WNBA Draft, but teams might be hesitant to deal such selections because of the incoming star power, including USC’s JuJu Watkins, Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Texas’ Madison Booker.

How do Golden State Valkyries affect free agency?

In December, Golden State selected 11 players for its inaugural season. However, it’s likely all of those players won’t be part of Golden State’s roster. Only three players — Stephanie Talbot, Kayla Thornton and Kate Martin — are under contract with the Valkyries, and Golden State has the most cap room in the league. As a result, it could be a willing trade partner for players on supermax contracts or free agents looking to maximize their short-term earnings.

Free-agency predictions

Stewart headlines another deep pool of free agents in the 2025 offseason, which features multiple former MVPs and multi-time All-Stars. Stewart has already announced that she will return to the New York Liberty, but there should be much more movement as other teams gear up to take down the defending champions.

GO DEEPER

WNBA free-agency predictions: Kelsey Plum to the Storm, Satou Sabally to the Liberty

(Illustration: Will Tullos / The Athletic; photos of Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas: Barry Gossage / Getty Images, David Berding / Getty Images)