Why do Newcastle struggle so badly against Liverpool?

To make history, Newcastle United must find a way to break history.

The bigger picture is on the grandest scale imaginable — next month’s Carabao Cup final and a 56-year yearning for major silverware — and the smaller is opponents who have troubled Newcastle more than any other post-takeover.

Liverpool are the only ever-present Premier League side that Eddie Howe has failed to beat in any competition since taking charge of Newcastle in November 2021.

Given Liverpool’s calibre, that is perhaps unsurprising, yet Howe boasts a positive record against Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Aston Villa, while he has won as many as he has lost against Chelsea. Although Newcastle are yet to beat Manchester City or Bournemouth in the league under Howe, he has defeated them in the Carabao Cup.

However, against Liverpool, Howe’s record reads: played seven, won zero, drawn one, lost six. The aggregate score is 17-8 against.

Admittedly, Newcastle’s barren run against Liverpool stretches much further, to 16 meetings since December 2015. Their fruitless journeys to Anfield span 31 years and 28 top-flight visits, with their only Premier League victory coming in April 1994 under Kevin Keegan.

Yet Howe’s struggles against Liverpool are not confined to his Newcastle tenure. Throughout his managerial career, of the opponents he has faced more than twice, Howe’s record against Liverpool is his joint-worst (alongside Manchester City).

Across 20 games, he has lost 17, drawn two and won only one against them — a dramatic come-from-behind 4-3 Bournemouth victory in December 2016. He has never won at Anfield, once securing a draw in April 2017, and the first point he took off Liverpool as Newcastle head coach only arrived in December.

The topsy-turvy nature of that pulsating 3-3 draw actually offers a fairer reflection of Newcastle’s recent match-ups. Although they were blown away occasionally during the Jurgen Klopp era, they were also sometimes unfortunate to lose, with misfortune, lapses in concentration, poor refereeing decisions and moments of individual brilliance costing Newcastle.

Regardless, victories have proven elusive. Here, The Athletic analyses what needs to change for Newcastle to finally triumph at Anfield — and, more importantly, at Wembley next month.

Salah is Newcastle’s tormentor-in-chief

Mohamed Salah is the clear frontrunner for the Premier League’s Golden Boot this season and, while he has been prolific throughout his Liverpool career, he has been particularly lethal against Newcastle.

In 15 appearances, Salah has scored 10 goals and assisted another 11. Since Howe took charge, he has scored five and laid on six — only failing to directly contribute to a goal in one of those seven outings.

But it is not just the volume of Salah’s goal involvements that has been so damaging; his interventions have usually arrived at critical junctures and proven match-defining.

In December, after a quiet first half, Salah created Curtis Jones’ equaliser out of nowhere, then clinically scored twice (the first is shown below) to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead .

It was the second successive meeting against Newcastle in which he had scored two and assisted one (with a ludicrous outside-of-the-boot cross, shown below), following Liverpool’s 4-2 victory at Anfield in January 2024.

When Newcastle led 1-0 on Merseyside in August 2022, Salah laid on two goals to turn the game around while he scored Liverpool’s second in a come-from-behind 3-1 victory at Anfield in December 2021, and he also played Darwin Nunez through to score the winner on Tyneside in August 2023.

Salah’s enduring brilliance against Newcastle was typified during Liverpool’s 2-0 win at St James’ Park in February 2023.

Salah’s presence led Nick Pope to handle the ball outside of his area, for which he was dismissed, and the Egyptian provided the sublime, dinked, through ball to lay on Cody Gakpo for Liverpool’s second goal (shown below).

Remove Salah and Howe would surely have beaten Liverpool by now. He has been the difference in almost every meeting — including almost single-handedly rescuing Arne Slot’s side in December.

Late goals — and Liverpool’s greater attacking depth

Newcastle conjured a 90th-minute leveller in December’s 3-3 draw but usually, Liverpool are the ones leaving it late.

Newcastle have started some matches quickly, unsettling Liverpool and even taking the lead, but have failed to sustain their intensity. Liverpool’s superior attacking depth, especially among their substitutes, has told.

That is partly why Newcastle have struggled to contain Liverpool’s attacking threat.

As the graphic below shows, Newcastle concede an average of 2.67 expected goals (xG, a metric that measures the quality of shots) per 90 minutes when facing Liverpool, significantly higher than against anyone else.

Liverpool average 7.9 shots on target per 90 against Newcastle, more than any other side manages against Howe’s team.

The 7.27 xG Newcastle conceded at Anfield in January 2024 — the highest recorded in the Premier League — partly skews the figures but also shows that when Liverpool are on it against a fatigued Newcastle, they cut through with ease.

Even if Liverpool’s finishing has sometimes been wayward, their prowess has normally proven decisive.

Across seven matches, Liverpool have scored seven goals from the 75th minute onwards. Spread across five games, four have materially changed the result, earning Liverpool an additional six points.

Somewhat inexplicably, given his woeful open-goal miss against Aston Villa last week, Nunez also displays a Robbie Fowler-esque clinical edge when facing Newcastle (on Tyneside at least).

Having scored during the 2-0 win in February 2023, he then came off the bench to arrow in two unstoppable efforts from distance when Liverpool came from behind to triumph 2-1 at St James’ six months later in an archetypal ‘smash and grab’.

The first of his brace is shown below.

Just as gut-wrenching for Newcastle was the 98th-minute concession at Anfield in August 2022.

Having gone toe-to-toe with Liverpool, taken the lead and appearing set to hang on, they failed to clear a corner and allowed Fabio Carvalho to lash in a winner (shown below).

The two benches clashed afterwards, with angry scenes in the dugout, including a water bottle being thrown. Needle between the clubs grew — with genuine animosity emerging between Klopp and Howe’s coaching teams, which only dissipated once Slot took charge.

“The ending lived with me… it’s probably still with me now,” Howe told Alan Shearer during an interview for The Athletic in September 2022. “It may be one of those moments you never truly move on from. I was replaying the last couple of minutes over and over, thinking: ‘What could we have done differently?’.”

Unfortunately for Howe, in the subsequent four meetings, he has still yet to unearth a winning formula.

Bad luck (and poor refereeing decisions)

Fortune has rarely favoured Newcastle, either.

Pope is among the Premier League’s best sweeper-keepers, yet a massive misjudgement came against Liverpool (and led to him missing the 2023 Carabao Cup final, sparking a Newcastle goalkeeper crisis).

As shown below, Salah’s presence forced Pope to handle outside of his area and, while Newcastle were already 2-0 down, they were playing well and troubling Liverpool, only to be reduced to 10 men in the 22nd minute.

At Anfield six months earlier, Alexander Isak scored on his debut and was denied a second — which would have put Newcastle 2-0 up — via a marginal offside call (shown below). Many Newcastle fans still cite that decision, adamant Isak was onside (or that it was too close to call).

Plenty of other contentious refereeing calls have gone against Newcastle.

Howe was unimpressed by the award of two penalties at Anfield last year and, if Sven Botman’s challenge on Luis Diaz was soft yet justifiable, Diogo Jota’s clear dive once he was beyond Martin Dubravka’s reach infuriated Newcastle.

If that came in a match when Liverpool had been utterly dominant, then the most controversial incident of all came during Howe’s first Anfield encounter with Newcastle.

Having taken the lead through Jonjo Shelvey, Newcastle were defending resolutely and Isaac Hayden nodded away a corner, only to suffer a blow to his head.

Joelinton immediately signalled that Hayden and Jamaal Lascelles were down.

Once Lascelles was back on his feet, he joined Joelinton in trying to alert officials.

But Liverpool were allowed to continue playing, the ball was crossed in and Jota arrived next to the spot Hayden was lying, scoring a leveller.

Head-injury protocols dictated that the game should have been stopped and not only were Newcastle left furious but the momentum shifted Liverpool’s way and they eventually won 3-1.

Surely Newcastle’s luck has to turn at some stage in this fixture.

Profligacy or lacking creativity, with little in between

It has been one extreme or the other for Newcastle.

As the earlier graphic showed, Newcastle generate 1.15 xG per game against Liverpool, while they have scored an average of 1.14 goals during those seven matches.

That suggests Newcastle are converting as many chances as they would be ‘expected’ to but are struggling to actually create high-quality opportunities. Only Arsenal (0.88 xG) and Manchester City (0.80) have been more effective at restricting Newcastle’s chance-creation under Howe.

Newcastle’s speculative shooting has not helped. Their normal top-flight shot-distance average is from 15 metres but against Liverpool, that lengthens to 17.6m, which reduces the likelihood of scoring.

Interestingly, however, in three of seven meetings, Newcastle have produced a higher xG than Liverpool.

Even when Newcastle played for 68 minutes with 10 men in February 2023, they managed a higher xG, yet failed to score. Alisson was inspired and Newcastle twice hit the woodwork, while Liverpool were clinical, with that pattern being repeated during the next fixture on Tyneside, when the visitors triumphed despite being a man down for 62 minutes.

When Newcastle do manage to create chances, they tend to be high-quality ones — but their profligacy has been their undoing.

Newcastle blowing themselves out

When Newcastle press high and disrupt Liverpool, they can be devastating in transition and Isak terrifies Virgil van Dijk et al.

Yet maintaining that approach for the majority of matches has been beyond Howe’s side. Often, Newcastle have unsettled Liverpool with their early intensity and have sometimes taken the lead, only to tire and end up being picked off.

In all four St James’ encounters, Newcastle have started strongly, smothering Liverpool and nicking possession high, only to make mistakes or concede a goal, and ultimately lose their way.

In August 2023, Anthony Gordon’s harrying forced a mistake from Trent Alexander-Arnold, who miscontrolled a Salah pass, allowing the Newcastle forward in to score.

Three minutes later, Van Dijk was drawn into making a challenge by Isak and was sent off.

Having spurned several further first-half chances, Newcastle’s intense game plan meant they tired, despite being against 10 men. Nunez capitalised on a swift counter to level before Bruno Guimaraes was guilty of overplaying in stoppage time, leading to the Uruguayan’s winner.

Newcastle struggle to maintain possession against Liverpool, averaging just 38.2 per cent. They only have less of the ball against Manchester City (34.9 per cent).

Although this approach is partly by design — Newcastle play long balls 15.7 per cent of the time against Liverpool, their highest against any team and significantly above their 11.6 per cent average — it has also proven flawed.

When Newcastle do not take their opportunities, their setup leaves them prone to tiring, given how much off-the-ball work they must undertake. Liverpool’s late goals can partly be explained by their quality attackers, but also because of fatigue setting in amongst Howe’s men.

Could it be eighth or ninth time lucky?

There is a universal feeling among the Newcastle squad and staff that they not only owe Liverpool one, but that they owe Liverpool several.

Howe’s failure to defeat the league’s table-toppers really does not accurately reflect the balance of the previous seven fixtures and there are genuine reasons to believe it can be different at Anfield — and even at Wembley.

“We need close to a perfect game,” Howe said on Tuesday. “Learning from the recent game against Manchester City will be a useful starting point, where we didn’t execute the aggressive game plan that we wanted. We didn’t attack enough — we need to learn from that at Anfield, which is a really great environment to play football, but not a great environment if you’re not totally there.”

Isak seems to trouble Van Dijk in a manner few strikers can, Gordon always steps up against the club he grew up supporting and Newcastle should have won in December (among other Tyneside encounters).

Liverpool are overwhelming favourites for both meetings but senior figures at Newcastle believe it suits the club to be underdogs for the final.

Time will tell, but surely, by the law of averages, Newcastle’s time must come soon — both against Liverpool and in Wembley finals.

(Top photo: Stu Forster/Getty Images)