NBA Lookahead: Can Nikola Jokić overcome voter fatigue and win another MVP?

Every Thursday (but a day earlier during Thanksgiving week), I’ll be taking you through the big story heading into the weekend. Or maybe the weirdest story? Or maybe just something that makes me laugh and I think will make you laugh too. Essentially, if you’re subscribed to The Bounce and reading every day, we’re going to have the same fun here as we do in that space.

On top of that, I’ve culled the weekend schedule for you to know what to pay attention to. Weird bad streaks against teams? Beefs you need to track? Just fun games with matchups you may not have known were happening? We’ve got that for you. On top of that, we’ll have a good old-fashioned Throwback Thursday to hit you with that feel-good nostalgia.

Let’s have fun by starting with a Nikola Jokić MVP conversation.

Story to Watch: Is Nikola Jokić too good for voter fatigue? 

Let me say this off the rip. I do not believe in discussing the MVP race before January. I’d prefer it happen around the time we get our All-Star squads settled, which usually happens in late January. It’s just a pet peeve of mine when it comes to NBA conversation. I’m not trying to be rude to any colleagues, but it personally feels like a crutch to lean on when storylines feel a little slow. I don’t want to pretend it doesn’t matter to keep track of this stuff in October, November and December because these games count and slow starts can derail an MVP campaign by the end of the season. However, when so much can change between now and even halfway through the season, I just don’t feel the need to keep track of it all in terms of updating the conversation.

Where I’ll bend my own arbitrary rules on this is when it comes to discussing how voters vote within the context of what might happen this season. I was reading John Hollinger’s latest “Week That Was” (don’t ever tell him I read his work or that I can read), and I was pretty enthralled with what he said about Nikola Jokić. The Denver Nuggets star having a realistic chance at the NBA player’s triple crown of highest scoring, rebounding and assists averages in one season is pretty ridiculous. He’s not there, but as Hollinger pointed out, he’s knocking on the door of all three categories. After Monday’s blowout loss to the Knicks and Jokić’s modest 22-point, seven-rebound, and seven-assist effort, this is where he stands in that statistical march.

  • Points per game: 29.7, which is fourth in the league. He trails Giannis Antetokounmpo (32.4), LaMelo Ball (31.0), and Anthony Davis (29.8). If he scores 69 points in his next game, Jokić would catch up to Giannis.
  • Rebounds per game: 13.4, which is still first in the NBA. Domantas Sabonis is second with 12.9 per game. Sabonis can catch up to Jokić if he grabs 24 next game.
  • Assists per game: 10.9, which is second in the NBA. Trae Young is first with 11.9 per game. Jokić would need 26 assists in his next game to catch Young all in one night.

Jokić isn’t there, but he’s kind of there. Compare it to Wilt Chamberlain trying to lead the league in assists per game during the 1967-68 season. He averaged 24.3 points, 23.8 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. That’s a mind-boggling stat line for an entire season. He led the NBA in rebounding that year because of course he did. However, Chamberlain wasn’t close in the scoring title, finishing fourth behind Oscar Robertson (29.2), Dave Bing (27.1) and Elgin Baylor (26.0). He did finish second in assists per game, but was well behind Robertson (9.7). It’s a feat that doesn’t really make sense to even be in the running for.

The scoring and the assists seem to be the toughest part of all this in the same season. Only Nate “Tiny” Archibald has ever led the NBA in scoring and assist averages. He did it in 1972-73 with 34.0 points and 11.4 assists per game. By the way, we do not talk enough about that as a basketball society for a player who was listed at 6-foot-1 and 150 pounds. That season, he averaged 2.8 rebounds — just 15.8 rebounds behind Chamberlain for the league lead.

Maybe all this discussion about Jokić going for the NBA triple crown will be for naught in five months. Maybe it will be unrealistic one month from now. Hollinger was right in saying that we’ve never even really thought about this as a possibility before. Russell Westbrook averaged a triple-double four different times in his career, effectively watering down how the NBA, media and fans react to triple-doubles. But he never truly came close to approaching the triple crown:

  • 2016-17: Won the scoring title with 31.6 per game. Tenth in boards (10.7), finishing well behind Hassan Whiteside (14.1) for the lead. Third behind James Harden (11.2) for assists (10.4).
  • 2017-18: Seventh in scoring (25.4) behind Harden (30.4). Tenth in rebounding (10.1) behind Andre Drummond (16.0). First in assists with 10.2 per game.
  • 2018-19: Seventeenth in scoring (22.9) behind Harden (36.1). Tenth in rebounding (11.1) behind Andre Drummond (15.6). First in assists with 10.7 per game.
  • 2020-21: Twenty-fourth in scoring (22.2) behind Steph Curry (32.0). Sixth in rebounding (11.5) behind Clint Capela (14.3). First in assists with 11.7 per game.

These are all absurd seasons and averages to own, but Westbrook still never approached this feat. It’s completely unfathomable. It makes me wonder what will be made of Jokić in the eventual MVP conversation that makes sense to have in earnest and not because it’s a Wednesday in November and your B Block of programming is a little light. Unless you want to break down Most Improved Player races or whether Steph Curry should have more NBA Finals MVP awards, or should we debate if Michael Jordan is better than LeBron James?

Voter fatigue feels like a real thing. I’m lucky enough to be a voter for NBA awards and have been for the past few seasons. While I can assure you that I’ve truly never felt voter fatigue in my approach, it definitely seems to be common. Personally, I’m too paranoid, vain and insecure to “get it wrong” when it comes to the award. Even when people feel like I did get it wrong, I want to be able to justify my decisions as a voter with full honesty and transparency, and that will always outweigh whether it’s “boring” to keep voting for the same people. I wanted to look at a few examples of potential voter fatigue with the upfront understanding that I wasn’t there for these instances and therefore am merely taking some educated guesses on this front. And one that I did participate in.

Larry Bird: 1986-87

Only two players had won three straight MVP awards before Bird. Bill Russell did it in 1961, 1962 and 1963. Wilt Chamberlain did it in 1966, 1967 and 1968. Then, Bird did it in 1984, 1985 and 1986. Nobody has done it since, which might be partially due to voter fatigue. In the 1986-87 season, Magic Johnson ran away with the MVP voting, receiving 65 of the 78 first-place votes. Jordan received 10 first-place votes, and Bird was one of three players to get a single vote. Charles Barkley and Hakeem Olajuwon were the others.

Bird played in 74 games that year and averaged 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 7.6 assists while shooting 50-40-90 for the season. The Celtics won 59 games, finishing with the second-best record in basketball. Magic’s Lakers won 65 games behind his averages of 23.9 points, 12.2 assists and 6.3 rebounds. Magic averaged fewer points and rebounds, while also shooting a lower percentage from everywhere. Johnson had never won an MVP. Was this a case of voter fatigue? A case of “we need to get Magic one of these eventually?” Did the six extra wins give him the justified nod? Seems like Bird had a pretty good case.


Charles Barkley won the 1993 MVP award over Michael Jordan. (Rob Schumacher / USA Today)

Michael Jordan: 1992-93

That Magic Johnson MVP mentioned above? This started a six-year stretch in which Magic won three MVP awards and Jordan won three MVP awards. But neither ever won three in a row. Jordan was clearly the best player in the world at that point, but that didn’t mean he was going to outright beat Magic for the top individual award. However, once Jordan started winning titles in 1991 and 1992, it was pretty obvious he was the most valuable guy in the NBA year in and year out. In his first MVP season, Jordan averaged 35.0 points, 5.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 3.2 steals, and he made 53.5 percent of his shots on a 50-win Bulls team.

In 1991, Jordan won the MVP with 31.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.7 steals and 53.9 percent shooting on a 61-win Bulls team. The next year, he won MVP again with 30.1/6.4/6.1/2.3 and 51.9 percent shooting on a 67-win team. You wouldn’t challenge any of these, really. And the voting reflects that with it not being close. In 1992-93, Charles Barkley won the award in his first year with the Phoenix Suns. He led the Suns to 62 wins, thanks to 25.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.0 block while making 52.0 percent of his shots. Ridiculous, right? Jordan averaged 32.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 2.8 steals with 49.5 percent from the field for a 57-win Bulls team.

We can probably point to voter fatigue on this one, considering Jordan finished third in MVP voting behind Barkley and Olajuwon.

Jordan: 1996-97

Jordan easily won it in the 1995-96 season, when he was fully back and led the Bulls to 72 wins. We don’t even need to get into the breakdown of that one. Jordan also won in the 1997-98 season on the 62-win Bulls, running away with the voting in almost nearly as dramatic a fashion. So, what happened in the season in between those two years? Well, the Bulls only won 69 games on their way to another championship. Jordan led the league with 29.6 points per game to go with 5.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists. He only shot 48.6 percent from the field, but it was also during that small window of the league moving the 3-point line in to 22 feet all around. So, everybody, including Jordan, was shooting 3-pointers. His field-goal percentage was lower, but his true shooting percentage still held strong.

So, who won it over Jordan? Karl Malone. He averaged 27.4 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.5 assists with 55.0 percent shooting. That’s a really good season! Jordan and Malone both made All-Defense First Team. They also both made All-NBA First Team. Malone’s Utah Jazz won 64 games. That’s really good! Does any of this add up to Malone deserving this award over Jordan? It was a head-scratcher then, and it’s still one today. That has to be either voter fatigue or feeling like they needed to get an MVP award to the 33-year-old Malone.

LeBron James: 2010-11 

James won the MVP award in 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013. Four out of five seasons. He did not win in 2011, and I’m not sure you can chalk it up to voter fatigue. It felt like it was a punishment for the way he handled “The Decision,” when he chose to take his talents to South Beach with the Miami Heat rather than staying in Cleveland with the Cavaliers. I don’t want to say Derrick Rose wasn’t worthy of the award that season. He was awesome, averaging 25.0 points and 7.7 assists on the 62-win Bulls. LeBron’s numbers across the board were all better than Rose’s. His Heat team won 58 games. James was far better on defense too. Rose was deserving, but was he 113 first-place votes to just four for LeBron levels of deserving? No.

Jokić: 2022-23

Some (Nuggets fans and Serbian basketball fans) have wondered if Jokić has already suffered from voter fatigue. Two seasons ago, Joel Embiid won it over Jokić. Even though Jokić nearly averaged a triple-double (24.5/11.8/9.8) with 63.2 percent from the field, he didn’t win his third straight MVP. Jokić’s numbers were better than his previous two MVP seasons. Denver was better than its previous two seasons. So many factors pointed to Jokić. Embiid averaged 33.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. Embiid missed out on All-Defense, but he received 15 voting points for it. He was superior to Jokić on defense, and you could argue quite comparable on offense — not as good, but good enough. Embiid’s team won one more game than Denver. Embiid played in three fewer games than Jokić did.

Embiid ran away with it, garnering 73 first-place votes. Jokić got 15, almost matched by Giannis’ 12. I was a voter for this award, and I voted Embiid. It was a tough decision because they were so close, but ultimately I let defense tip the scales for me. I do not regret the vote because I felt like I gave it the proper consideration. With that said, I wouldn’t be shocked if other voters felt like it was time to give it to someone else. I don’t know if it was enough to keep Jokić from getting his third straight, but he did end up winning a title and NBA Finals MVP that very year. I feel like it worked out for him.

We have a very long season to go, so I do not have interest in debating if Jokić is primed to win his fourth MVP in five years. What I will say is an NBA triple crown would certainly stop anybody from feeling fatigued because voters do love unique moments in time. Feels like this entire Jokić experience has turned exactly into that.


Games on the Radar

Do you plan out your weekend around your sports-viewing schedule? You’re not alone. Are you the type to want to look like a sports savant by going to your local sports bar, suggesting a game to put on and then reveling in the praise from fellow patrons you’ll get for knowing what to watch? You’re home. Are you the type to just fly by the seat of your pants and wing it last minute when you remember games are on? Bookmark this post and refer to it later! These are the best games to pay attention to this weekend.

Reminder: The NBA doesn’t play on Thanksgiving Day.

(All times Eastern)

Friday — NBA Cup Night!

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks, 2:30 p.m. on NBA TV: Shockingly, the Hawks will win East Group C with a win over Cleveland and a Bulls loss to Boston. The Cavs have a shot at winning the group if they win this game and their next NBA Cup game (against Washington). They just need Chicago to beat Boston.

OKC Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. on ESPN: Considering their final group play game is against Utah at home, the Thunder will win West Group B if they take down the Lakers and the Suns beat the Spurs. Plus, it’s the Thunder against the Lakers! Even without the concentric color circle court, this is a big-time matchup.

Saturday

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns, 9 p.m. on NBA TV: Kevin Durant is back for the Suns, and the Warriors are one of the best teams in the West. The Suns were one of the best teams in the West before Durant’s injury. This one should have a ton of fireworks with him re-establishing his current squad against his old squad.

Sunday

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers, 6 p.m. on NBA TV: Remember that super fun matchup between these two that snapped Cleveland’s historic 15-0 start? Well, this time it’s personal! Also, they’re in Cleveland and get a chance to get revenge on the Celtics. This all leads toward who has home-court advantage in the East.

OKC Thunder at Houston Rockets, 7 p.m. on League Pass: This is a big one. The Rockets are for real. The Thunder are elite. This should be an absolute rock fight with arguably the two best defenses in the NBA squaring off.

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, 9 p.m. on League Pass: They played a few weeks ago, and Victor Wembanyama had 34 points, 14 rebounds, six assists, six made 3-pointers and three blocks in a win over the Kings. Sacramento is fully healthy and looking for revenge.


Throwback Thursday: Happy Birthday, Shawn Kemp! 

On Tuesday, Shawn Kemp turned 55 years old. For anybody in my generation (I’m 42) or around my generation, the Reign Man was a pivotal figure in our basketball enjoyment and development as fans. Heck, he was probably even a pivotal figure in how you played against your friends on a NERF hoop in your bedroom. Because once you saw him dunk in a basketball game, that’s all you wanted to emulate with a NERF basketball slamming through that small, plastic ring wedged into your door frame. For the younger crowd today, think of Blake Griffin before social media and marketing explosions.

Kemp had a very unconventional path to the NBA. There were rumors/stories he didn’t win the honor of Mr. Basketball in Indiana because he had committed to Kentucky, rather than a college in the state of Indiana. This is all even though Kemp broke a bunch of Larry Bird’s state high school records, which Bird hilariously used as motivation to get “revenge” on Kemp when he got to the league. Kemp couldn’t make the minimum score on the SATs, so he was forced to miss his freshman season at Kentucky, and while sitting out he was accused — quite possibly wrongly — of stealing gold chains from a teammate who happened to be the head coach’s son. He went to Trinity Valley Community College in Texas instead, but he also didn’t play there. Instead, he declared for the 1989 NBA Draft and was selected 17th by the Seattle Supersonics.

After a rookie campaign that was nothing to write home about, Kemp emerged as a star. He wouldn’t become an NBA All-Star until Year 4 in the NBA. By then, though, he was a household name thanks to 17.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 1.9 blocks all highlighted by him dunking all over the NBA. He was a high-flying force who brought flair and attitude to everything he did on the court. Kemp broke away from a lot of convention and would handle the ball as much as many guards in the league. Teaming up with the trash-talking, lockdown, star point guard Gary Payton, made this the duo of the present and future for so many seasons.

Kemp’s highlights were always what set him apart from other star forwards in the league. Fifteen years ago, the NBA YouTube account put out this video of Kemp’s Top 10 dunks, and it’s rich with pure entertainment.

10. He starts his spin move outside of the lane against Clifford Robinson, then gathers himself in the paint and dunks over Uncle Cliff with two hands? That’s just rude.

9. He goes baseline on Brian Williams (who would later be known as Bison Dele), and then casually does a reverse, one-handed, no-look dunk on the other side of the rim. The fact that he made this look so casual just shows the foundation that was set for high-flyers like Blake Griffin.

8. One of many highlights Kemp had against the Warriors. He could’ve been accused of bullying the Warriors throughout his career. Kemp’s high-flying act and then swinging on the rim was only boosted by him running up the floor as if he’s a thief disguised as a hostage, walking out of a bank robbery with his hands up as if he had nothing to do with it.

7. I always felt this dunk against the Lakers was super underrated, even though it was simple. The stutter-step before he enters the lane just has something about it that I love. It’s a moment of “you really shouldn’t let me do what I’m about to do” before he crushes their spirits with another dunk.

6. Grabbing the board, dunking on several Denver Nuggets players, and then giving a little, double stanky leg before the stanky leg was even a thing. This man celebrated like few ever did after highlights.

5. I can’t believe this one is fifth! He gets the offensive board after Chris Gatling blocks a Nate McMillan shot. Ultimately, he dunks on Gatling to get a little revenge for his teammate. Then for Kemp to be so respected as a dunker and a competitor that Gatling daps him up? Nobody gets dapped up after they dunk on someone! Definitely not by the person they just dunked on.

4. This one is hilarious because Kemp clearly gets away with a carry as he’s navigating the drive up the length of the floor. But nobody cares because he put Bill Laimbeer on a poster. Everybody hated Laimbeer outside of Detroit.

3. The acrobatics of Kemp to do this double-pump, two-handed, reverse dunk in traffic to avoid the shot block attempt, and to pull it all off so cleanly? I hated to employ an overused, trite bit of current patois, but Kemp was truly different. I will not stamp this with the snort emoji here, though. We used to be a society!

2. Are you kidding me? Go watch that again. He absorbs contact as he does a windmill dunk on the other side of the rim. Gets the foul call. Cooly pumps his fist in celebration. Name five cooler players in the ’90s. You can’t.

1. The Lister Blister. This is the all-timer. He was one of the few guys taking the ball through the lane like a running back cradling a football. Then, he’d rise up and dunk from that motion, and it looked so much better than that lame hand-behind-the-head move Malone would do on his dunks. Kemp dunked all over Alton Lister, then pointed right at him with both index fingers. This is a technical foul if you do this now. It was a tech if you did it then. It shouldn’t be. If you dunk on someone like that, you should get to do this.

I could celebrate the Kemp era and his birthday all day, but I want to leave you with one highlight away from the NBA court. Kemp used to participate in the MTV Rock N’ Jock Bball Jam. Think of the celebrity game now at All-Star weekend — only people wanted to watch it. It was super entertaining and had actual celebrities you know. So many stars of the ’90s were in it from the music, television, film and sports world. NBA players participated. Six-time MLB All-Star Kenny Lofton hooped in it. And it even gave us moments like Kemp absolutely dogging Mark Wahlberg.

The biggest upset in sports history happened here. Forget the “Miracle on Ice.” Forget the Nuggets beating the Sonics in 1994 as the first No. 8 seed to beat the No. 1 seed. The biggest upset ever happened when Kemp went one-on-one with Queen Latifah. Yes, that Queen Latifah. There isn’t another one. He tried to put the ball between her legs on his move, and this happened.

The fact that Kemp enjoyed every minute of this is just another reason we love him. Happy birthday, Reign Man! We love you.

(Top photo of Nikola Jokić: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)

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