Jets' plan at centre, the stats behind Comrie's record, Ehlers' future: Mailbag, part 1

The trade deadline is over a month away but Winnipeg Jets fans have turned their eyes to Stanley Cup contention.

You want to know about Winnipeg’s path to playoff readiness. You want to know more about Nikolaj Ehlers’ future: Will they trade him now, will he walk or could the Jets still re-sign him? You wonder if Cole Perfetti is big or strong enough for his first full playoffs. Some of you just want to get Eric Comrie some run support — and one of you asked a fun statistical question about the Jets’ performance in Comrie’s starts.

But we’re starting part 1 of this mailbag with a thought about the future. What is Winnipeg’s plan for when Mark Scheifele and Adam Lowry age out of their roles?

Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.

The Jets’ top two centers by TOI are Mark Scheifele and Adam Lowry. Both those players were drafted in 2011. Since then they haven’t really used any premium draft capital on any surefire center prospects. At some point in the near future they are going to have to figure out a succession plan. Brad Lambert might still be best suited to the wing. Brayden Yager does look like a good all-round player likely to be a C in the NHL but probably not a 1C. How do the Jets address their looming problem at C? — Aavcocup A.

It’s been 14 years since Mark Chipman revealed Winnipeg’s NHL team would be called the Jets and Kevin Cheveldayoff called Mark Scheifele’s name shortly thereafter. Scheifele and Lowry are 31 years old now.

Vladislav Namestnikov is too old and too far down the depth chart to be a viable replacement. Rasmus Kupari’s recent emergence as a third-line option has been fun to watch but the top six is some distance away for him. Kupari also turns 25 this March, which is still young in NHL terms but older than most players who make major year-over-year leaps.

What are Winnipeg’s options, then?

The most NHL-ready solutions would require the Jets to change how they play. Gabriel Vilardi, 25, and Cole Perfetti, 23, were each raised as centres but neither is a plus-skater at the NHL level. Winnipeg wants its centres to be able to offer low support in the defensive zone and then help drive transition play. Clearly this requires speed; Scott Arniel (and Rick Bowness before him) has mostly kept Vilardi and Perfetti on the wing as a result. I think Perfetti is not given enough credit for the board battles he wins but some of the apprehension toward playing him in the middle would include concerns about his size.

Your question also references Lambert, of course, and he has speed to burn. I think the Jets will try to develop him as a centre (they’ve played him there in four NHL games so far this season) but might find, as you suggest, that they get more value from Lambert on the wing. I’m not sure how his play off the puck will go in the NHL; Winnipeg wouldn’t have to worry about his speed as far as end-to-end, 200-foot play goes, but it’s hard to see him winning defensive battles against elite NHL competition. (He’s 21 and obviously not a finished product; perhaps he has more success than we’re projecting.)

The scouts I’ve spoken to are divided on 20-year-old Brayden Yager’s ceiling. Everyone seems to agree Yager is an NHL player; the division is about his ability to force his way into the top six. Some see his “jack of all trades, master of none” skill set as a sign he’ll be able to solve a variety of problems in the NHL, finding utility on any line; others see a lack of the elite offensive talent that comes with top-six production.

Kieron Walton, 18, is one of the most exciting prospects in the Jets’ prospect pool — and is tracking to crush his sixth-round draft position — but the trajectory from late-round gem to top-six NHL stalwart takes time in even the best-case scenario. Even Scheifele, a No. 7 pick, took five years from draft day to emerge as a top-line centre at 23 years old. Lowry’s arrival didn’t come until 2017-18 when he was 24.

The UFA market isn’t traditionally kind to Winnipeg, so betting that free agency will give the Jets their Scheifele or Lowry replacements seems like a reach. It has to be about the draft or through trade and I think you’ll see the Jets work toward that in coming seasons. They added Pierre-Luc Dubois to Scheifele when Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic wanted out; I think the dream of two top centres is alive and well in Winnipeg, even if the solutions are not obvious.

I also think it’s a good time to remember that top players with term, while difficult to procure, will always be at the top of Winnipeg’s wish list via trade.

What do you make of Cole Perfetti? Has he shown more motivation seeing Seth Jarvis being selected by Team Canada for the 4 Nations tournament? — John B.

I think your reference to Jarvis is more of a trivia item for fans than it is the reason Perfetti strives to improve his play. Jarvis, the 22-year-old Winnipeg product, is a month younger than Perfetti and was taken 13th by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2020 when the Jets took Perfetti at No. 10.

Still available after five picks:

Cole Perfetti, C, Saginaw-OHL
Jamie Drysdale, D, Erie-OHL
Marco Rossi, C, Ottawa-OHL
Alexander Holtz, RW, Djurgarden-SHL
Seth Jarvis, C, Portland-WHL
Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-KHL
Jack Quinn, RW, Ottawa-OHL

Winnipeg is going to do well at 10.

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) October 6, 2020

Perfetti was the consensus best player available at the time. Bob McKenzie and Corey Pronman had him fifth in their final rankings, while Scott Wheeler had him fourth. I’ve spoken to two NHL executives whose teams drafted near where Winnipeg picked; both agreed that Perfetti was the right choice. Cheveldayoff certainly felt that way — he joked he’d have sprinted to the podium if the draft had been held in person that year.

I understand the idea of asking about Jarvis, but I don’t think Perfetti needs the comparison for motivation. My understanding of Perfetti as a person is that he is unusually determined to improve his game and unusually hard on himself when he doesn’t produce points. I believe that quality is innate. It doesn’t come from Jarvis’ or any other player’s accomplishments, nor is it pressure put on Perfetti by his coaches or any outside factors. He is driven to become the best NHL player possible and can get hard on himself when the bounces aren’t going his way. Winnipeg’s veterans have been kind to him in terms of mentorship.

As for his play this season, I like his hockey sense, his competitiveness and his willingness to go to the net. He beat Anze Kopitar in three puck battles on the wall against L.A. last week, so I’m seeing tremendous progress in terms of his ability to win pucks in the dirty areas. I haven’t seen him create as much space for himself at five-on-five as I would like, but his passing does create space for his linemates — and that’s been true even when the Ehlers-Namestnikov-Perfetti line had grown cold. I think he’s in a great spot right now with Nino Niederreiter and Kupari. It’s a good mix of Niederreiter’s physicality, Perfetti’s vision and Kupari’s speed that takes better advantage of each player’s talents than the Ehlers line did. (Arniel has praised Ehlers in all sorts of ways lately, but most of the praise has also referenced his post-injury struggles.)

Perfetti’s 44-point pace is adequate, although I thought he’d deliver more than that this season. It would be more than Bryan Little produced in either of his final two full seasons with the Jets — the years Winnipeg went out and got Paul Stastny and Kevin Hayes at consecutive deadlines. I make the Little comparison because I think people forget how good Little was and I think people sleep on Perfetti’s quality, especially on nights he isn’t scoring. There is also a certain critique in it: If Perfetti were the second-line centre on this Jets team, fans would clamour for a deadline day upgrade — ideally like Stastny — to ensure Winnipeg’s Cup contention. I think that critique is fair.

I continue to project Perfetti as a top-six forward worthy of power-play time, although it’s worth noting he has yet to make the leap to the 60-points-per-82-games rate Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Ehlers reached at his age.

What do you think is the most likely outcome for Ehlers? (A – extend contract in-season; B – extend in offseason; C – trade before TDL; D – walks as a UFA.) — James B.

I don’t know what Ehlers’ future holds but I have opinions and guesses. To that effect, I’d like to answer you in the form of a pie chart.

I’m going to have to ask you to imagine the pie, though.

A: 5 percent
B: 25 percent
C: 25 percent
D: 45 percent

I haven’t expected Ehlers to sign in Winnipeg beyond this season, but Ehlers certainly hasn’t told me that. He loves his teammates, appreciates the opportunity to win, and has certainly enjoyed being moved to the top power-play unit. He’s on pace for a point-per-game season as a result and, as I wrote last week, he’s doing himself favours concerning how much he gets paid this summer.

I think the Jets would consider trading Ehlers before the deadline — as always, depending on the return they would get. Whether it’s a defenceman or centre, I think the keys to the Jets moving Ehlers would be:

1. Term on contract. If my guess is right and Ehlers is unlikely to sign here (or the Jets simply aren’t prepared to pay Ehlers on his next deal) then Cheveldayoff will have to go back to the resourceful well that landed Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Kupari for Dubois. The scale would be different but the principle is the same: The longer the player could help Winnipeg beyond Ehlers’ 2025 UFA date, the better.

2. Playoff readiness. I’m not sure that Jets management (and coaching) is as critical of Ehlers’ lack of playoff offence as segments of the fan base have been but it’s possible they point to his 14 points in 37 games and move him in search of a lesser player with greater playoff pedigree. At 33, Ryan O’Reilly may be on the downswing of his career but he remains effective, won the 2019 Stanley Cup, costs just $4.5 million AAV and is signed for two seasons beyond this one. If the Jets could make a deal for O’Reilly or a player that matches that criteria, wouldn’t they have to look long and hard at it?

All of that would be contingent upon Ehlers being uninterested in signing. Communication channels are open and I expect Ehlers’ preferences are known. It’s possible Ehlers has enjoyed his role on a Cup-contending team so much that I’m wrong and he signs a long-term deal despite this line of thinking. If the Jets feel there’s a chance of that, there should be no reason to upset the existing chemistry of their club.

Chemistry may even be a reason to keep Ehlers as a self-rental, depending, of course, on the potential aforementioned trade return.

Do you have any stats that explain why Comrie never gets run support? He always plays really well. — Bradford M.

There are three ways I can think to answer this question. The first is to take a page out of Arniel’s book.

“It’s a broken record. I have no idea why we can’t score when he’s in the net,” Arniel said after Saturday’s 3-1 loss to Calgary. “We’re the highest-scoring team and it just seems like we can’t get (Comrie) any run support.”

The second takes a bit of a thought exercise. I hope you’re game.

Picture yourself on a basketball court, standing at a free-throw line with the ball. You’ve got 10 shots — how many do you think you’d make? (I think you’re a great shooter but outside the NBA, so I’ll say you hit seven — and, for argument’s sake, let’s say this is a perfect representation of your shooting ability.)

So you are a career 70 percent shooter from the free-throw line. Great! But you’re not a robot. You don’t make seven out of 10 shots every time we test you on this. Sometimes you hit six, sometimes you hit eight, sometimes you heat up like NBA Jam and go 10-for-10, etc. Over an infinite timeline, you’re a 70 percent shooter, but some days you’re better and other days you’re worse.

Let’s say I decide to track some random data about your shooting performance: time of day, day of the week, how much sleep you got, the last meal you ate, or the last song you listened to before shooting. Some of this stuff — sleep — probably matters. Some of it could theoretically matter: Let’s say I do some digging as a reporter and it turns out you always used to practice free throws in your parents’ driveway while blasting “Mr. Brightside” on your portable stereo and — all of these years later — “Mr. Brightside” still correlates with your best shooting days. Maybe you’ve developed some performance cues that go along with the song and if I’d only just asked you a question about you for once in your life, I’d have known.

And sometimes stuff happens randomly but we tell ourselves stories to make sense of it anyway. The Jets have a .691 points percentage, for example, but consider their performance sorted by days of the week:

Are the Jets Tuesday legends? Are they Wednesday wimps?

Or did Neal Pionk have the puck swiped off his stick after Haydn Fleury put him in a tough spot instead of reversing it to Niederreiter with 30 seconds left in Anaheim on the second half of a back-to-back on Wednesday, Dec. 18?

Maybe that’s just dumb luck; a bad play at a bad time. Maybe there’s something about the fact it was a back-to-back. We know teams tend to perform slightly worse on the second half of those situations — especially if they’re also playing their third game in four nights. (The Jets were not playing their third game in four nights against Anaheim; I’m just adding that for context.)

That brings me to my third attempt at explaining the Jets managing just 12 goals during Comrie’s eight-game losing streak. Four of those games were played on the second half a back-to-back. New Year’s Eve in Colorado was also the Jets’ third game in four nights, which gives us some legitimate outside reasons to think the Jets might be worse in those games. But Winnipeg changed its course; Comrie got the first half of last weekend’s back-to-back, a stifling defensive game and a 2-1 overtime loss against Los Angeles. The Jets didn’t manage much offence that game but the Kings are also the league’s top defensive team by a lot of metrics.

1st in shots, slot shots, rush chances, rebound chances, expected goals and goals against.

— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) January 11, 2025

Saturday’s game against Calgary was Winnipeg’s opportunity to make good. It wasn’t a back-to-back. It wasn’t against an elite defensive team. It was just a home game against the Flames, wherein the Jets fired 39 shots on goal — roughly four expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick — and scored just once.

Dustin Wolf was tremendous in the opposing net but the Jets wanted to take responsibility for their own lack of goals.

“We were taking a lot from the outside,” Connor said. “When that’s the case, you’ve got to find ways to get inside positioning, find those rebounds, and that’s definitely something we can work on on the offensive side of the game. When that slot’s not there and the cycle game, we’re not finding those plays, we’ve got to find ways to generate more.”

In summary:

• There is a heaping element of “what in the world is going on?” that I can’t fully explain.

• I think some of it is the back-to-back games Comrie has played.

• Beyond that, I’d be cautious about trying to come up with explanations because his 11-game season — and eight-game losing streak — is a small sample. As I hope I showed via Winnipeg’s points percentage on Wednesdays and weekends, sometimes hockey just happens and trying to explain it too much is a dangerous game.

I hope that’s a somewhat satisfying answer. I’ve really tried here. At one point I went through all of Comrie’s goals against, too, and concluded that the number of deflections, sudden giveaways and moments beyond his control were disproportionately high.

Let’s give Arniel the last word on Comrie.

“He is taking it hard on himself,” Arniel said on Saturday. “And he shouldn’t, because he’s given us a chance every time he goes in there.”

(Photo of Eric Comrie: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)