The drama and trade rumors never seem to end in Vancouver.
On Tuesday, Canucks president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford sat down with The Globe and Mail’s Gary Mason for a bombshell interview. Rutherford spoke about the rift between J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, insinuating that it’s an untenable situation. He said that, “It certainly appears like there’s not a good solution that would keep this group together” and spoke at length about the possibility of trading them.
Rutherford’s interview is the clearest sign yet that the Canucks are seriously considering blowing up their core. Initially, the focus was on Miller, with extensive reporting on a deal with the New York Rangers that was close but ultimately fell through
Lately, however, the chatter around Pettersson has picked up. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday that Pettersson was close to being moved to the Carolina Hurricanes before the Mikko Rantanen trade. Friedman added that Pettersson trade talks are ongoing.
If the Canucks can only keep one of Pettersson or Miller, the answer should be to trade Miller and keep Pettersson. Miller turns 32 in March and is signed to a contract that spans five years beyond this season. He may not have many years of elite production left whereas Pettersson, 26, is in the middle of his prime.
However, Vancouver’s front office may not view this as a straightforward decision because Miller’s trade value appears distressed. The list of potential trade partners for Miller is dwindling and he has full control of the situation because of his no-movement clause. It’s going to be exceptionally difficult, if not downright impossible, for the Canucks to extract full value in a Miller trade.
Pettersson, on the other hand, is still likely to hold lucrative trade value because of his age, prior track record and the fact that he doesn’t have any trade protection right now.
We still believe the Canucks would be better off keeping Pettersson, but the organization could decide to go in either direction at this point. With that in mind, let’s analyze Pettersson’s situation, potential trade value, and the teams that could/should be interested in his services.
What Pettersson brings to the lineup
Pettersson has performed at the level of a star No. 1 center for most of his time in Vancouver.
Earlier this season, colleague Thomas Drance built a cohort of NHL forwards who produced between 1-1.2 points per game before their 26th birthday while appearing in at least 350 games. Since 1990, only 19 players matched this criteria and it’s mostly a list of legendary players.
History would suggest that players with Pettersson’s early career statistical profile almost always go on to be long-time franchise forwards. That’s important context considering his recent struggles.
When Pettersson’s at his best, he’s a lethal sniper and a slick, elite IQ playmaker. He can drive a line, legitimately elevate his wingers and break games open when he’s feeling it. He’s capable of being a 90-100 point producer, as evidenced by the 102 points he scored in 2022-23 and the 89 points he notched last season.
Pettersson is also a savvy, responsible defensive player. He’s intelligent at anticipating plays defensively and leveraging his stick to block passing lanes and force turnovers. Pettersson finished seventh in Selke Trophy voting in 2022-23 and even though he’s struggled offensively this year, he’s continued to be a dependable player away from the puck.
The elephant in the room is Pettersson’s mysterious offensive drop-off over the last 12 months, especially since he’s in the first season of an eight-year, $11.6 million AAV contract. Dating back to last year’s All-Star break, he has only scored 18 goals and 56 points in 76 games. That doesn’t even include his disappointing playoff run last spring where he mustered just one goal in 13 games.
Pettersson has looked off in several different ways.
He appears to lack separating speed with his acceleration and skating these days. He doesn’t seem to have enough dynamic force when skating the puck through the neutral zone which has hindered his ability to beat defenders one-on-one and create chances off the rush. NHL Edge data backs this up too: Pettersson was in the 88th percentile of NHL forwards for speed bursts above 20 miles per hour during his career-best 2022-23 season, but has cratered to the 53rd percentile this season.
That drop-off in his skating is especially notable because Pettersson dealt with knee tendonitis down the stretch last season, which coincides with the timing of his production falling off a cliff. There isn’t any reporting around Pettersson playing through an injury this season, but it’s fair to wonder if there have been any lingering effects.
Pettersson’s shooting rate has collapsed. And even when he is shooting, there’s been a noticeable drop-off in his shot velocity: Pettersson was in the 91st percentile of all forwards for average shot speed in 2022-23, but is down to the 59th percentile this season.
Pettersson’s offensive drop-off is alarming. But his long-term track record suggests that he should bounce back to being a star No. 1 center unless you believe that his physical attributes (skating, power, shot) have permanently declined in his mid-20s, which seems unlikely.
What is Pettersson’s trade value?
Jack Eichel stands out as a potential comparable for Pettersson’s trade value.
Eichel was also a top center in his mid-20s, with perceived risk and a big contract. However, there was uncertainty about his neck injury and his desire to undergo artificial disk replacement surgery, which had never been performed on an NHL player before. Given the Sabres’ futility during his time with the club, Eichel’s leadership and locker room impact were also questioned.
Vegas gave up Alex Tuch (a good top-six winger), Peyton Krebs (a solid center prospect) and a first-round pick. That’s a sizable package, but it obviously paled in comparison to the value Eichel has given the Golden Knights as a franchise player who led them to a Stanley Cup.
The Canucks should be flexible regarding the type of package they target if they choose to dangle Pettersson. Yes, getting another center would be ideal because they’re not looking to rebuild, but if the best offer is a king’s ransom of futures they could always take that and flip them for win-now help in separate trades, similar to how the Canucks turned part of the Bo Horvat trade haul into Filip Hronek.
Teams that could/should be interested
Buffalo Sabres
In The Globe and Mail interview, Rutherford acknowledged that the Canucks won’t be able to bring in a center of Pettersson’s (or Miller’s) caliber in return. But moving out one (or both) of those pivotal pieces will leave gaps that management has to fill. That’s why Dylan Cozens could become a part of the conversation.
Cozens showed a ton of promise during a breakout season in 2022-23, but has struggled to live up to the hype over the last couple of seasons. In most situations, the Sabres would be selling low if they traded the 23-year-old right-handed center too soon but this could be a prime opportunity for Buffalo to recoup value.
The Sabres have prospects and picks to offer the Canucks. And the team has a lot invested in four left-handed defensemen, and that’s before factoring in Bowen Byram’s next contract. That could make one of their blueliners like Owen Power or Bowern Byram expendable to Vancouver. A package built around Power and Cozens may be the Canucks’ best chance at recouping value from a potential Pettersson trade.
Until Pettersson’s no-movement clause kicks in on July 1, the Sabres don’t have to worry about whether he can see the palm trees in Buffalo through their current last-place standing (and less-than-one percent shot at the postseason). The in-season timing of these negotiations, therefore, is of the essence for the Sabres.
Nashville Predators
The Predators are well-positioned to take a run at Pettersson for a few reasons:
- Nashville has a glaring long-term need for a No.1 center despite Steven Stamkos’ recent success at 1C.
- General manager Barry Trotz recently told The Athletic that he’s not interested in a retool or rebuild and that staying competitive is a priority. Pettersson is in the perfect age category where he’d give the club a boost immediately but is also young enough to be a massive piece of the franchise’s long-term future.
- Trotz is a big believer in taking aggressive, bold swings when the right opportunity presents itself.
- Nashville has a deep war chest of young players, prospects and draft picks to build a package around.
Nashville has three first-round picks this year. The Preds have intriguing young players who are already contributing in the NHL like 21-year-old center Fedor Svechkov (the No. 19 pick in 2021 who’s already off to a hot start to his career) and Luke Evangelista. They also have blue-chip prospects like puck-moving defenseman Tanner Molendyk or center David Edstrom. Is there a combo of young players, prospects and picks among that group that would work for both sides?
Utah Hockey Club
Utah is well-positioned to be in the mix for Pettersson. It starts with ownership’s willingness to take big swings for high-end talent, similar to the Vegas model. Management aggressively upgraded their blue line last summer. Now, the focus should shift to their biggest weakness: center depth.
Pettersson would transform Utah down the middle, and he’s in the age range of someone who can grow with this up-and-coming team. A one-two punch of Pettersson and Logan Cooley — versus their current duo of Cooley and Barrett Hayton — would get this team much closer to the playoff picture.
Utah should have the cap flexibility to swing a deal, especially in the long run, and have pieces to entice Vancouver. If the idea is to bring a center back, then Hayton could be of interest. Plus, Utah has a surplus of defensemen (especially now that they’re getting healthier) to help address another area of need for the Canucks, not to mention a deep, robust prospect pipeline.
Chicago Blackhawks
Pettersson’s such an interesting trade target because he is an ideal fit for teams on both ends of the spectrum – contenders and rebuilding clubs.
Adding Pettersson wouldn’t suddenly make the Blackhawks playoff-caliber. But a one-two punch of Pettersson and Connor Bedard down the middle would help the team take a leap forward.
Rebuilding clubs can’t solely be built of players in their teens and early 20s with a lot of potential. There have to be some veterans, like Nick Foligno in Chicago, to help in the locker room. And ideally, that team can get to a point where they start taking their stockpile of future assets and flip them into players in the prime of their careers. That would be a better fit than throwing money at superstars when (or if) they make it to free agency.
The Blackhawks have a ton of cap space to work with, and a lot of young talent to interest the Canucks. As The Athletic’s Mark Lazerus wrote, Bedard would be the only undisputed untouchable in the organization, with blue chip talents like Frank Nazar, the No. 13 pick in 2022, and Kevin Korchinski, the No. 7 pick in 2022, likely available to build a package around. Chicago also has three first-rounders over the next two years and five second-round picks to dangle.
Is a package centered around Mason McTavish enough to entice the Canucks? (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are poised to miss the playoffs for a seventh consecutive season. They’re in a similar position to the Sabres where their rebuild has stalled and their exciting, young players are developing slower than expected.
Anaheim has its future No. 1 center in Leo Carlsson (though he’s disappointed with 16 points in 44 games as a sophomore this season) so it doesn’t have a huge positional need for Pettersson, but this opportunity would be more about adding an elite talent in his mid-20s to jumpstart a stalled rebuild.
Would either side be compelled by a package built around 21-year-old center Mason McTavish? McTavish, the No. 3 pick in 2021, scored 42 points in 64 games last season as a sophomore. He has the potential to develop into a high-end top-six center but he’s failed to take the next step this season. The Ducks also have a stacked pipeline of promising young defensemen they could offer up, with Pavel Mintyukov, the No. 10 pick in 2022, perhaps standing out from a Canucks perspective. Anaheim could always turn to its deep prospect pool to sweeten the pot.
The Canucks might be leery of trading Pettersson to a divisional rival, but if the Ducks are interested in seriously bidding, they’d be one of the most asset-rich trade partners for Vancouver to consider.
Philadelphia Flyers
Flyers general manager Daniel Brière openly discussed the team’s need to find a true No. 1 center at some point in the foreseeable future during his midseason media availability.
In a perfect world, the Flyers would draft that first-line center as a homegrown player. The problem is that Philadelphia is too competitive to tank and collect the top-10 picks that maximize a team’s chances of drafting a 1C. The Flyers may have to solve that need via the trade market and that’s where Pettersson could be a tantalizing long-term partner for Matvei Michkov.
The biggest stumbling block is whether the Flyers have the prime assets that the Canucks would be looking for. Philadelphia is well-stocked with draft picks – owning three first-rounders and three second-rounders this year. On the current roster, 24-year-old Cam York could be intriguing as an underrated, high-quality top-four puck mover or maybe even Owen Tippett as a cost-controlled top-six sniper if the Canucks intend to flip Brock Boeser at the trade deadline instead of re-signing him to a massive extension.
The Flyers have pieces to dangle and a clear need for a player like Pettersson – it’s absolutely worth it for them to kick tires – but the odds that they can cobble together the most attractive package for Vancouver seem like a longshot.
Boston Bruins
Miller is more likely in the Bruins’ price range, but Pettersson would be even better around their franchise cornerstones.
Even if the Canucks move Pettersson for pennies on the dollar, the Bruins may not have the assets or the cap space to make a deal happen. But management needs to make their best offers to elevate their center depth.
The Bruins have their next two first-round picks to offer, along with 20-year-old Matthew Poitras. Brandon Carlo could also be of interest to a Canucks team that needs help on the backend. So could Pavel Zacha, who is a natural center, and Trent Frederic. Carlo or Zacha may have to be a part of the equation, considering how much salary the Bruins would have to move out to absorb Pettersson’s cap.
If management can get realistic about this team’s trajectory sooner than later, the Bruins could also kickstart a retool to clear out bad contracts and gain more trade assets that would interest Vancouver.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets’ surprising playoff push is one of the best stories in the NHL this season. But the Eastern Conference is still wide-open, so despite all of their progress, their playoff odds are only at 29 percent. Maybe management could change that with a big swing for Pettersson, which would help this team now (especially after Sean Monahan’s injury) and in the future.
The Blue Jackets have a ton of cap space to work with. And bringing in Pettersson wouldn’t hamstring this team in the long-term either — Adam Fantilli has another year of his entry-level deal, and Kirill Marchenko is under contract at a very reasonable cost for another few years. By the time these players are up for raises, Columbus will likely have Ivan Provorov and Erik Gudbranson, among others, off the books.
The Blue Jackets have two first-rounders in 2025 (their own and the Wild’s), along with a deep prospect pool. Columbus may be able to offer the Canucks some backend support. But the ideal centerpiece of a return for Vancouver would be up-and-coming center Cole Sillinger.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado sent shockwaves through the NHL with the Mikko Rantanen trade last Friday night. But the deal does not signal a change in direction for the team. The Avalanche are still all-in, and management is planning to use some of their newly-opened cap space ahead of the deadline.
As much as Martin Necas and Jack Drury address areas of need, there is room for improvement. The team’s fatal flaw is just how weak they are when Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t on the ice due to regression from key parts of their supporting cast and injuries. Maybe the most glaring is at 2C with Casey Mittelstadt, who is experiencing downticks in his scoring, transition game, and play-driving.
Pettersson would surely be an upgrade, though it wouldn’t be easy for Colorado to pull off. The Avs are stocked with mid- and late-round picks in the next couple of seasons but is without a first in 2025. But maybe there is a way to build a package around Mittelstadt to send a center back to Vancouver.
The cap is another issue to navigate. Pettersson at least comes in behind the internal cap set by MacKinnon’s contract, but would require a lot of creative accounting to fit long-term.
St. Louis Blues
Jim Montgomery’s hiring has helped the Blues improve but realistically, this team is still stuck in limbo. St. Louis’ five percent odds of winning the draft lottery are higher than it’s two percent chance of reaching the postseason.
The Blues’ best bet to change that may be targeting NHLers in their early-to-mid 20s instead of waiting for players to hit unrestricted free agency in their late 20s and early 30s. That is what management did last summer with offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. If Doug Armstrong can keep up his bold streak, Pettersson could be an ideal target given the Blues’ long-term need for another top-six center to complement Robert Thomas.
The Blues need to send some salary out to make this deal work — whether from their somewhat clunky blue line or Brandon Saad’s contract that was put on waivers Tuesday. And unlike some potential trade partners, the Blues do not have an ideal center to send back. But they have an above-average prospect pool, their next two first-rounders and some established NHLers to build up a return package.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
